Sunday, November 16, 2008

Map of red and blue flips shows red mostly rural

Three-fourths of the counties that switched party allegiance from Democratic to Republican between the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections were rural. Among the much larger number of counties that switched from Democratic to Republican, only 54 percent were rural. Those figures come from Tim Murphy and Bill Bishop of the Daily Yonder, which defines counties as rural, urban and "exurban," counties that are in metropolitan areas but still largely rural.

The Yonder's map shows the same Appalachia-to-Texarkana red zone of counties where John McCain did better than President Bush did in 2004. The sole urban county that went red was Beaver, northwest of Pittsburgh on the Ohio River. It went 51-48 for Kerry and likewise for McCain. Its population is 6.2 percent black, half the national figure. The Yonder notes that the map should also include rural Gallatin County, Montana (Bozeman), as switching from red to blue. For its list of rural counties that switched, click here.

"The map tells one obvious story about last week's election: The Midwest shifted significantly," Murphy and Bishop write. "Nearly half of the counties that flipped this year were located in Midwestern states. And only one of the changing Midwestern counties switched its vote to Republican." One factor there may have been McCain's opposition to etanol subsidies and the latest Farm Bill. For more details, with links to other lists, click here.

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