Thursday, November 04, 2010

GOP House gains came mainly in rural areas; rural Democrats' numbers deeply slashed

Republicans won control of the U.S. House largely by taking districts where at least one of three residents is rural. "Two-thirds of the 60 House seats switching from Democrat to Republican in this election were in the congressional districts with the most rural voters," Bill Bishop and Julie Ardery of the Daily Yonder report. "Before the election almost half (61) of the 125 most rural districts were held by Democrats. By the end of the day Tuesday, the number of rural Democrats had been cut to just 22. Just 18 percent of the most rural House districts are now represented by Democrats."

The 125 most rural districts analyzed by the Yonder had at least 33 percent of their population living in rural areas. The national population is 21 percent. "There are 39 rural districts that switched from Democratic representation to Republican," Bishop and Ardery write. "These account for 65 percent of the 60 seats Republicans captured from Democrats on Tuesday." No Republican district on the most-rural list switched to Democratic.

"Most of the seats lost by the Democrats were well north of the Mason-Dixon Line, many in the Upper Midwest and New England," Bishop and Ardery write. "Yes, Democrats lost three of their seats in rural Tennessee. But they also lost three in rural New York." The National Cattlemen's  Beef Association was quick to latch onto the Republican victory as a referendum against proposed U.S. Department of Agriculture livestock rules, but "there seems to be no relationship between opposition to the livestock rules and defeat on Tuesday," Bishop and Ardery write. (Read more) (Yonder map)

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