Friday, May 11, 2018

Coal predictions get more dire; renewables and gas benefit

"More coal plants are now projected to retire more quickly than experts thought a year ago, according to energy-industry analysts who gathered in Chicago Tuesday," Jeff McMahon reports for Forbes. "Three alternative energy sources—wind, solar and natural gas—are expected to divide up the spoils, they said at the American Wind Energy Association's Windpower 2018 conference."

Max Cohen, an IHS Markit analyst, said his company predict about 100 gigawatts of coal retirements in the next decade, about a third of the available coal energy. 

Bruce Hamilton of Navigant has projected 73 gigawatts will retire in the next 10 years. "That's more than twice what we projected last year at this time. It's more than we had two years ago when the Clean Power Plan was in the assumptions," Hamilton told McMahon. The predictions changed partly because of announced retirements of coal-fired power plants, but also because the costs of coal have gone up while its competitors have all gotten cheaper. 

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