Thursday, November 15, 2018

Farmers can't profitably sell record soybean harvest due to trade war; prices depressed, and storage is iffy

The Department of Agriculture says this year's U.S. soybean harvest will be the largest ever, 4.6 billion bushels, but farmers may have a hard time selling their beans because of the trade war with China. "Selling soybeans to China has nearly halted with the tariff dispute resulting in a growing stockpile and the lowest prices for farmers in more than a decade," The Associated Press reports.

Many farmers, hoping for an early end to the trade war, are not selling, but storing their beans in bins, silos, shipping containers, or even piles on the ground covered by tarpaulins to keep them dry.

"The hope is that over the next few months, trade tensions will ease, and China, the top market for the oilseed, will start buying from American farmers again, lifting depressed prices in the process. A bushel of soybeans fetched just $8.87 on Friday. Eight months ago, before trade tensions led to tariffs, it was about $2 more," Shruti Singh, Isis Almeida, and Mario Parker report for Bloomberg News. "The risks are great. While futures trading indicates higher prices next year, that could change depending on trade negotiations and rising supplies. Moreover, the crop could go bad on them. Soybeans are not corn. They don't store nearly as well. If not kept super dry, they can take on moisture fast. Rot quickly follows, making them worthless — and gross."

But many farmers don't have much choice but storage. With sales to the U.S.'s largest soy customer, China, down 90 percent from last year, there aren't enough buyers domestically or abroad to buy the American harvest, Bloomberg reports.

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