Thursday, December 19, 2019

The 2019 agricultural year in review

'Tis the season for articles looking back on the year behind us. Here's one discussing agriculture in 2019 and conjecturing where things could go next.

The biggest story of the year is likely the U.S.-China trade war, which continued to roil ag markets in 2019. "China occasionally decided to waive ag tariffs and import some goods, but by and large, the ag trade between these two countries ground to a halt," Brent Gloy and David Widmar report for Agricultural Economic Insights. "Then, an early Christmas present arrived as word came out that a partial phase-one agreement appears to be moving forward. For agriculture, the package is the big shiny box under the tree, but we will have to wait a bit to find out exactly what’s in it."

The spread of African Swine Fever is arguably the second-biggest story of the year, Gloy and Widmar write. China generally accounts for a bit under half of the world's production and consumption of pork, but the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that Chinese pork production dropped 14 percent from 2018 to 2019 and predicts it will fall another 25% next year. The disease is spreading across Asia and threatening other nations, which is impacting other nations' meat markets.

The article rates other important agriculture issues such as trade bailout payments, farm bankruptcies and the overall farming economy, record wet weather, and the impending U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal. Click here to read more.

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