50 state polls show rural battlegrounds, tight race in fall; Pennsylvania will continue to get attention

What states will be the big battlegrounds for rural voters in the election for president this fall? It depends on whether Democrats choose Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, but the outlines of the battle with Republican John McCain became clearer today, with the release of the first poll to take statistically solid samples from every state.

Survey USA is able to do that because it uses automated calling with recorded voices, usually of anchors at the television stations that sponsor the polling. Traditional pollsters and many political observers discount such polling, which may over-estimate turnout and under-estimate undecided voters, but Survey USA has established a decent track record and deserves consideration.

The polls indicate that the biggest rural battleground, in terms of population, is likely to be the current Democratic primary battleground: Pennsylvania. The Keystone State has 2.8 million rural residents, third behind No. 1 Texas (3.6 million) and No. 2 North Carolina (3.2 million), both of which could be big rural battlegrounds if Obama is nominated, the polls there indicate. Each state poll sampled 600 registered voters, for an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points for each candidate's figure.

The Pennsylvania poll showed McCain beating Obama, 47 percent to 42 percent, but losing to Clinton, 47 to 46. That reflects polling for the critical April 22 primary in the state, which has Clinton leading Obama. In North Carolina, which has a primary May 6, McCain beat Obama 47-45 and Clinton 49-41. In Texas, McCain beat Obama 47-46 and Clinton 49-42. Both states have voted Republican in presidential elections for three decades; the Texas result may reflect more interest in Obama as a result of Tuesday's primary there. The same may be true in Ohio, which voted Tuesday. It is widely forecast to be a tossup state in the fall, but the poll there had McCain losing to either Democrat, 50-40. Ohio has the fourth largest rural population, 2.6 million.

One of the more interesting states in the poll was Virginia, a long-reliable Republican state that has been trending Democratic. The poll there showed McCain beating Clinton 50-40 but losing to Obama by less than 1 percent of the vote, rounded to 47-47. Virgina had 1.9 million rural residents, 27 percent of its population, in the 2000 census. In Missouri (31 percent, 1.7 million rural), McCain beat Clinton 48-44 and Obama 48-42.

In Iowa (39 percent, 1.1 million rural), which started Obama's rise, the poll showed McCain losing to him 50-41 but beating Clinton 46-41. Other states going Democratic only with Obama as the nominee were North Dakota, Nevada, Oregon, Colorado and New Hampshire. States going Democratic with only Clinton as the nominee were Florida, New Jersey, Arkansas (where she was first lady) and West Virginia. In the polls' electoral-vote projection, McCain lost to Obama 280-258 and to Clinton 276-262.

The difference between the potential Democratic nominees in West Virginia, the third most rural state at 54 percent, was marked: McCain beat Obama 53-35 but lost to Clinton 47-42. The Mountain State was the heart of an anti-Obama pattern in Eastern states with mountains, running from Pennsylvania to Arkansas. In Kentucky, McCain beat Obama 54-33 and Clinton 50-41; in Tennessee, he beat Obama 54-38 but was less than 1 percent ahead of Clinton, rounded to 46-46. Clinton won Tennessee's primary by a big margin. Kentucky votes May 20.

For the poll results, click here.