Kentucky's rural demographics and history give Clinton an advantage in state's May 20 primary

As the Democratic presidential primaries roll on, white men could be the key to the contest. Dan Balz of The Washington Post examines this crucial bloc of voters in light of Ohio's results, which he says raise the "question of whether racial prejudice would be a barrier to (Obama's) candidacy in some of the major industrial battlegrounds in the general election if he becomes the Democratic nominee."

Given the demographics and history of Kentucky, that question will be a key one in the state's May 20 primary, a fact that likely gives Clinton an advantage, writes Al Cross in his Sunday column for The Courier-Journal of Louisville. Cross focuses on Kentucky's voters — about 40 percent of whom are rural — but it's a similar look at the intersection of race and politics in this campaign.

The campaign's recent storylines and results highlight "the harder fact about race and Obama," that "there are still some white voters for whom his race is a disincentive or even a disqualifier," Cross writes. Exit polling from Ohio's March 4 primary shows Clinton held an advantage among voters who said race was a key factor for their vote, such as in the state's Appalachian 6th Congressional District — known as "Pennsyltucky" since it borders Kentucky and Pennsylvania — where Clinton won 72 percent of the vote. Add that to polls and results from other states that shows Obama's struggle to win over lower-income, lesser-educated whites, and it looks like Clinton should have an advantage in a Southern state like Kentucky.

Six weeks ago, Cross wrote that Obama could win Kentucky thanks to "swing voters over 55 who still feel angst about how they acted during the civil rights struggle of the 1960s and would like to cast a cathartic vote" for an African American. This week, he has a different outlook and writes:

That was wishful thinking -- not in hope of an Obama victory, but in hope of a victory over our racist past, which still lingers. William Faulkner was not just describing the old Confederacy when he said, "The past is not dead. In fact, it's not even past." Obama says he is the candidate of the future. If he is to succeed, he must confront the past -- and in some places, the present.

Cross is director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues and former political writer for The Courier-Journal. Forgive the "cross-promotion" here, but the column is worth checking out since Kentucky — with all its baggage — is entering in the political spotlight. (Read more)