Obama riding Democrats' partisan base; Clinton does best in counties (mainly rural) with more Rs

"Sen. Barack Obama campaigns against the blue-and-red ideological division in the country, but he is leading in the Democratic primary contest against Sen. Hillary Clinton because he has done a better job of turning out the Democratic base in the most partisan of Democratic communities," reports the Daily Yonder. "Clinton, meanwhile, is judged to be the more polarizing of the candidates. Yet she has found her strength among those who live in the counties with the most Republican voters" -- counties that are largely rural.

The Yonder's Bill Bishop and Tim Murphy analyzed primary and caucus results in "landslide counties," those where President Bush or Sen. John Kerry won by more than 20 percentage points in 2004. "Obama won 72 percent of the landslide Democratic counties from 2004," they write. "Clinton, meanwhile, has won 62 percent of the largely rural counties where Bush defeated Kerry in 2004 with landslide margins" -- counties where voters are "whiter, older and poorer" than in Democratic landslide counties. Obama lost such counties until the Virginia and Maryland primaries.

"Clinton's ability to pull votes from 'red' counties will be tested this coming Tuesday in the Texas and Ohio primaries, two states Bush won in both 2000 and 2004," the writers conclude. "The results of the Yonder study raise questions both about Clinton's strategy and Obama's ability to find a non-partisan compromise with Republican ('red') America. Clinton largely ignored caucuses in 'red' states, such as Idaho, North Dakota and Colorado. Obama won easy victories in these places where Clinton might have had an advantage.

"It's impossible to predict a vote in a general election based on the vote in the primary, but Obama has not yet shown an ability to pull voters from more conservative communities. He has been able to excite the most partisan of Democratic voters — the Democratic base that may be the least willing to compromise with Republicans should Obama be elected. It's interesting that the likely Republican nominee, John McCain, has done best in the cities — the same communities where Obama has excelled." (Read more)