Palin pick solidifies McCain base in rural areas

Sen. John McCain's pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate has solidified his support in battleground states and "especially in rural areas, where she has made a very positive first impression," Dan Balz and Peter Slevin of The Washington Post report this morning, quoting an unnamed McCain adviser. "If that holds, it could complicate Obama's hopes of picking off Ohio or Missouri. He won the latter in the primaries, but it voted for Bush in the past two elections." So did Ohio, which is probably once again the top battleground. (Map from Stateline.org)

Obama strategist David Axelrod said McCain's firming up has largely been limited to states that voted for President Bush, and deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand said Obama would still try to take away some of those states, such as Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota. But Democratic strategist Tad Devine told the Post that the Electoral College map "is going to look a lot like 2000 and 2004."

Balz and Slevin report, "Five states that went for President Bush in 2004 are now high on the list of potential Obama states: Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. Two states that went for Sen. John F. Kerry are top targets of McCain's campaign: Wisconsin and New Hampshire. ... Kerry won 252 electoral votes in 2004, so Obama needs to pick off some Bush states to win the election. The two likeliest are Iowa and New Mexico, although that would still leave him six short of 270." Palin "makes an authentic rural connection," former Iowa U.S. Rep. Jim Ross Lightfoot told Douglas Burns of The Iowa Independent.

The Post says "McCain has fewer opportunities for switching states, but his first priority is to hold onto the two big battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio. His campaign has growing confidence that Florida will remain in their column. One Obama adviser, who declined to be identified in order to speak candidly, expressed pessimism about Florida but said the longer the Democrats can keep the state competitive, the more McCain may be forced to spend to defend it. Ohio remains competitive because of the economy, but there are signs that Palin could help boost the vote in rural areas, where Obama was very weak in the primaries." (Read more)

For an interactive battleground map, with state-by-state polls, from The New York Times, click here.