In 13 battleground states Oct. 1-21, rural voters were almost evenly split between McCain, Obama

An Oct. 1-21 poll of rural voters in 13 battleground states showed the presidential race to be a virtual dead heat, with Barack Obama leading John McCain 46 percent to 45 percent.

The poll was sponsored by the Center for Rural Strategies, a nonpartisan group that tries to attract attention to rural issues. It was conducted by the Democratic polling firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research in collaboration with Republican consultant Bill Greener of Greener and Hook. It surveyed 841 likely voters in rural counties in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

"What the survey indicates is that there was defection among rural voters largely on economic issues," Greener told Howard Berkes of National Public Radio. "And if that [continues] to be the case, then Sen. McCain would face a tremendous challenge to prevail on Election Day." But Greener noted that the poll spanned a three-week period and more recent nationwide polls show a tightening of the race. The latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, Oct. 17-20, showed McCain leading among "small-town and rural" voters 46 to 42, and 47-45 when leaners were included. The error margin for that subsample is plus or minus 6.95 percentage points.

In the three-week poll of rural voters in the 13 battleground states, "49 percent of respondents favored Obama on the issue of the economy, compared with 40 percent for McCain," Berkes reports. "Obama was trusted by slightly more people on the issue of taxes and on the nation's financial crisis." Rural-vote expert Seth McKee of the University of South Florida "speculates that the nation's economic crisis, the war in Iraq and disappointment with the Bush presidency may be taking a long-term toll on the rural Republican base, especially beyond Southern states," Berkes reports. "I think it's very possible that these rural folks who live above the Mason-Dixon Line could be ripe to move … away from the Republican Party," McKee told NPR. (Read more)