Forbes magazine headline: 'The Republican Party's fatal attraction to rural America'

Alabama map shows Santorum's rural strength (Washington Post)

"Rick Santorum’s big wins in Alabama and Mississippi place the Republican Party in ever greater danger of becoming hostage to . . .  rural and small town America" and alienating the decisive suburbs, geographer Joel Kotkin writes for Forbes magazine. The party's rural base, "not so much conservatives per se, has kept Santorum’s unlikely campaign alive."

Kotkin thinks Santorum has "a kind of generalized sanctimoniousness that does not play well with the national electorate" and especially with women and in suburbs, where President Obama won the 2008 election and where this one will be decided. He writes as if Santorum might be nominated, which remains unlikely, but warns that demanding "drill, baby, drill," a Republican mantra, does not resonate in the suburbs as well as it does in rural areas.

"Until the Republican nomination fight is settled, the party’s pandering to the sensibilities of such conservatives in rural areas could prove fatal to its long-term prospects," Kotkin writes. Even if Santorum loses, "His preachy, divisive tone — on contraception, prayer, the separation of church and state — has opened a gap among suburban voters that Obama will no doubt exploit."

Kotkin offers this caveat: "The president, as thoroughly a creature of urban tastes and prejudice as to ever sit in the White House, could prove vulnerable in the suburbs, if the Republicans can deliver a message that is palatable to that geography’s denizens." While Mitt Romney "has been a consistent loser in the countryside," except in "the Mormon belt from Arizona to Wyoming," he "does very well in affluent suburbs, confronting President Obama with a serious challenge in one of his electoral sweet spots." (Read more)