Obama's rural prospects dimmed by child-labor flap and broader economic issues

"One remarkable aspect of the 2008 Obama campaign was its success in carrying rural counties in battleground states such as Colorado and Iowa, the same counties which Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry had lost four years earlier," Tom Curry of MSNBC writes. "Whether Obama’s field organizers can repeat their 2008 success with rural voters this year depends on both symbolism and substance."

Curry notes that independent political analyst Charlie Cook said last week on MSNBC that in “states with a large small-town, rural populations ... the president's had a really, really hard time.” The most recent reason, he says, is the rules on child farm labor that the Labor Department withdrew after many objections. He notes that liberal Democratic Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota said, “While they may have been well-intentioned, these rules would have had a negative impact on our state’s ag community.”

Farmers constitute a small minority of rural voters, but broader economic issues may also hurt Obama's rural vote. "The average unemployment rate in smaller counties – those with less than the average size labor force – is 8.7 percent, compared to the national average of 8.2 percent," Curry writes, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics data. He also looks at Iowa and Colorado as examples of states Obama carried by holding down the usually strong Republican margin in rural areas. (Read more)