The rules for choosing the Republican nominee for president, which could prove crucial as a contested convention looks more likely, give disproportionate influence to urban areas and shortchange rural areas, Josh Kraushaar reports for the National Journal.
In most states, many or most of the Republican delegates are allocated by congressional district, so that means urban, liberal districts with relatively few Republicans get as many delegates as rural districts with strong Republican majorities. "It’s the disproportionate influence of urban voters in the Republican nomination process that makes it difficult for Sen. Ted Cruz to make serious headway against Trump," Kraushaar writes.
Trump has been doing well in liberal areas partly because his "mainly-white supporters are disproportionately concentrated near areas with many minorities, suggesting that strained race relations may have played a role in their backing of Trump," Kraushaar reports. "He has won over white Republican voters in rural Southern counties where African Americans make up a majority of the vote, and he has performed well in urban neighborhoods where the racial composition of surrounding areas has changed over the years." Also, "Some of the urban congressional districts are gerrymandered in order to take a small slice of Republican suburban territory along with heavily Democratic urban turf."
The situation is different in Wisconsin, where next Tuesday's primary seems likely to be crucial. "In an upside-down version of a traditional campaign, the Republican
front-runner is immensely unpopular in the reddest part of the state—the outer suburbs and exurbs that ring Milwaukee," Craig Gilbert reports for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "The picture is dramatically different at the other end of the state,
in the small cities, towns and countryside of northern and western
Wisconsin. Here Trump’s favorability score is 'plus 21' among Republicans: 53 percent view him positively and 32 percent view him negatively." (Journal Sentinel graphic; click on it for a larger version)
Trump had an early lead in Wisconsin but now trails Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by about 10 points.
In most states, many or most of the Republican delegates are allocated by congressional district, so that means urban, liberal districts with relatively few Republicans get as many delegates as rural districts with strong Republican majorities. "It’s the disproportionate influence of urban voters in the Republican nomination process that makes it difficult for Sen. Ted Cruz to make serious headway against Trump," Kraushaar writes.
Trump has been doing well in liberal areas partly because his "mainly-white supporters are disproportionately concentrated near areas with many minorities, suggesting that strained race relations may have played a role in their backing of Trump," Kraushaar reports. "He has won over white Republican voters in rural Southern counties where African Americans make up a majority of the vote, and he has performed well in urban neighborhoods where the racial composition of surrounding areas has changed over the years." Also, "Some of the urban congressional districts are gerrymandered in order to take a small slice of Republican suburban territory along with heavily Democratic urban turf."
Trump had an early lead in Wisconsin but now trails Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by about 10 points.
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