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Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Trump replacement for Clean Power Plan rolls back anti-coal rules, at its predicted price of more premature deaths

President Trump announced in West Virginia today the details of his new "Affordable Clean Energy" rule, which replaces President Obama's "Clean Power Plan." The new rule would help the coal industry by giving states more power to achieve lower emissions goals, but acknowledges that it would lead to more health problems and deaths.

Under ACE, states have three years to develop their own plans to reduce emissions to federal target levels, which are much less ambitious than those in Obama's CPP. It also allows states to establish emissions standards for coal-fired power plants. The Environmental Protection Agency "estimates that the measure will affect more than 300 U.S. plants, providing companies with an incentive to keep coal plants in operation rather than replacing them with cleaner natural gas or renewable energy projects," Juliet Eilperin reports for The Washington Post.

"Trump administration officials say the Clean Power Plan, in its effort to reduce carbon emissions, illegally tried to force electric utilities to use greener energy sources," Lisa Friedman reports for The New York Times. "The new plan, they said, would achieve many of the benefits sought by the Obama administration but in a way that is legal and allows states greater flexibility." The plan would take effect after a 60-day comment period.

EPA's impact analysis acknowledges that the plan will allow more emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutants than under the Obama plan. In the regulatory scenario that it deems most likely, EPA "predicts its plan will see between 470 and 1,400 premature deaths annually by 2030 because of increased rates of microscopic airborne particulates . . . which are dangerous because of their link to heart and lung disease as well as their ability to trigger chronic problems like asthma and bronchitis," Friedman reports. "The Trump administration analysis finds that own its plan would see 48,000 new cases of exacerbated asthma and at least 21,000 new missed days of school annually by 2030 because those pollutants would increase in the atmosphere rather than decrease."

The premature mortality estimates come from a Harvard University study that "formed the backbone of federal air pollution regulations," but EPA is considering a separate rule that would restrict the use of studies for which raw data, including identifying personal details, can't be published. "Scientists overwhelmingly oppose the move, pointing out that participants in long-term health studies typically agree to take part only if their personal health information won’t be made public," Friedman notes. Because the Harvard study and many others are based on confidential health records, the EPA would not have to use them and in future studies would be able to claim a far lower estimated number of premature deaths from the energy plan, Friedman reports.

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