Missouri Democrats seem poised to gain seats in the state's Republican-dominated legislature in 2022 because of a first-of-its-kind redistricting initiative approved by voters in the midterm election. Rural areas, which enjoy an outsized influence on statewide elections and generally vote Republican, are likely to lose ground under the new constitutional amendment.
"Missouri’s initiative marks a new frontier in a growing movement against partisan gerrymandering that has now notched ballot-box victories in eight states over the past decade," David Lieb reports for The Associated Press. "Other states have created independent commissions and required bipartisan votes to redraw legislative and congressional districts. Missouri will be the first to rely on a new mathematical formula to try to engineer 'partisan fairness' and 'competitiveness' in its state legislative districts; the legislature will continue drawing the state’s congressional districts."
Missouri's formula could end the GOP's supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature and move the ratios closer to a true reflection of voter choices, but the outcome is uncertain because the formula has never been tested in real life.
All states must redraw congressional and state legislative districts after the 2020 census; the new maps will generally go into effect in time for the 2022 elections. In addition to the criteria most states set for redistricting, Missouri's new amendment will require "a new nonpartisan state demographer to base state House and Senate districts on the votes cast in the previous three elections for president, governor and U.S. senator — races that are decided by voters statewide and are not affected by gerrymandering," Lieb reports. "The districts must come as close as practical to achieving 'partisan fairness' as measured by a formula called 'the efficiency gap.'"
The efficiency gap is the difference between the percentage of seats a political party wins compared with the share of the vote it receives. Missouri has a fairly high efficiency gap: though Republican candidates got an average of 57 percent of votes this November, the party won 71 percent of the seats. That's an 8 percent efficiency gap favoring Republicans, meaning they picked up 13 more seats than expected by voting tallies, Lieb reports.
The efficiency-gap formula was created a few years ago by Eric McGhee, a researcher at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, and Nick Stephanopoulos, a law professor at the University of Chicago. "Although the efficiency gap has been cited in court challenges to politically gerrymandered districts in Wisconsin and elsewhere, no other state has made it a legally required test for redistricting," Lieb reports. The U.S. Supreme Court sent the Wisconsin case back to a lower court in June.
"Missouri’s initiative marks a new frontier in a growing movement against partisan gerrymandering that has now notched ballot-box victories in eight states over the past decade," David Lieb reports for The Associated Press. "Other states have created independent commissions and required bipartisan votes to redraw legislative and congressional districts. Missouri will be the first to rely on a new mathematical formula to try to engineer 'partisan fairness' and 'competitiveness' in its state legislative districts; the legislature will continue drawing the state’s congressional districts."
Missouri's formula could end the GOP's supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature and move the ratios closer to a true reflection of voter choices, but the outcome is uncertain because the formula has never been tested in real life.
All states must redraw congressional and state legislative districts after the 2020 census; the new maps will generally go into effect in time for the 2022 elections. In addition to the criteria most states set for redistricting, Missouri's new amendment will require "a new nonpartisan state demographer to base state House and Senate districts on the votes cast in the previous three elections for president, governor and U.S. senator — races that are decided by voters statewide and are not affected by gerrymandering," Lieb reports. "The districts must come as close as practical to achieving 'partisan fairness' as measured by a formula called 'the efficiency gap.'"
The efficiency gap is the difference between the percentage of seats a political party wins compared with the share of the vote it receives. Missouri has a fairly high efficiency gap: though Republican candidates got an average of 57 percent of votes this November, the party won 71 percent of the seats. That's an 8 percent efficiency gap favoring Republicans, meaning they picked up 13 more seats than expected by voting tallies, Lieb reports.
The efficiency-gap formula was created a few years ago by Eric McGhee, a researcher at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, and Nick Stephanopoulos, a law professor at the University of Chicago. "Although the efficiency gap has been cited in court challenges to politically gerrymandered districts in Wisconsin and elsewhere, no other state has made it a legally required test for redistricting," Lieb reports. The U.S. Supreme Court sent the Wisconsin case back to a lower court in June.
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