Analysis: NAFTA replacement would produce slight net positive for U.S. economy; several ag sectors would benefit

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement would produce a slight net positive for the U.S. economy, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission's analysis. "The report found that the agreement would increase gross domestic product by 0.35 percent after inflation, or $68.2 billion, and create 175,700 jobs — fewer than the economy has recently produced in a single month, on average," Ana Swanson reports for The New York Times. "It would increase United States trade with Canada and Mexico by about 5 percent, as well as provide a modest lift to agriculture, services and manufacturing activity."

The USMCA is the proposed replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement; President Trump ordered the renegotiation soon after taking office because he blamed NAFTA for increasing the U.S. trade deficit, Swanson reports. Most of the USMCA consists of updates to NAFTA's framework; others were drawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a pending trade agreement from which Trump withdrew immediately after taking office.

Several agricultural sectors would benefit from the agreement, Ryan McCrimmon reports for Politico:

• "Dairy exports from the U.S. to Canada would increase by $227 million annually, a jump of 43.8 percent. U.S. imports of Canadian dairy products would also rise, with $161.7 million more in goods entering the country.
• Poultry raised in the U.S. would get expanded access to the Canadian market. Poultry meat exports in particular would increase by $183.5 million, or 49.3 percent, while shipments of live birds and eggs for incubation would rise by 11.2 percent and exports of eggs for consumption would jump by 27.9 percent.
• Sugar would be traded between Canada and the U.S. at higher rates: Imports from Canada would increase by $16 million, or 1.4 percent, and exports from the U.S. would rise by $21.1 million, or 2.3 percent.
• U.S. wheat producers are likely to get a small increase in access to the Canadian market, as well."