Pro-rural bias of the Constitution stands in the way of Trump's Senate removal after likely House impeachment

Estimated net support for impeachment
(The Economist chart; click to enlarge)

The pro-rural bias of our Constitution helped elect President Trump, and now it's insulating him and his party from removal by the Senate after likely impeachment by the House, The Economist magazine reports.

Trump won the election despite losing the popular vote by 3 million because of the Electoral College, which has a slight rural bias. It "is only mildly anti-majoritarian, [but] the Senate often deviates wildly from the popular will," the magazine says. "Because each state is weighted equally, voters in less-populous states are over-represented relative to those in large ones. Now that Republicans derive an outsize portion of their support from rural voters, their share of senators exceeds their share of total votes cast in Senate elections."

The Economist notes that the Senate would still not likely have the two-thirds majority needed to convict Trump even if it were apportioned by population like the House of Representatives: "However, if the chamber reflected public opinion more closely, some Republican members seeking re-election might feel obliged to support his removal."

As the system stands now, Senate Republicans are likely to benefit from backing Trump, The Economist says. Researchers from the publication base that opinion on a statistical estimation, which you can read about in the article (along with plenty of great charts); the bottom line is this: In 29 of the 50 states, a plurality of voters are estimated to oppose impeachment. The lack of a clear majority opinion, overall, means Republican senators have little reason to oppose impeachment.