Rural voters more influential in some Super Tuesday states

Rural and urban registered voters in Super Tuesday states (Daily Yonder chart; click on the image to enlarge it).
Maine, the most rural state by population,  is not included in the chart because current totals were not available.

Fourteen states will hold their primaries today, and though rural voters will be underrepresented because of major cities in California and Texas, eight of the states have an above-average number of registered voters in rural areas, Tim Marema and Bill Bishop report for The Daily Yonder.

Maine and Vermont have the highest percentage of rural voters, with about two-thirds of each state's voters living in rural areas. But those states represent only 3.6 million people—5 percent of those eligible to vote today. "Besides Vermont and Maine, Super Tuesday states with above-average numbers of rural voters are Alabama, 24%; Arkansas, 37%; Minnesota, 22%; North Carolina, 22%; Oklahoma, 34%; and Tennessee, 22%," Bishop and Marema note.

Texas has the largest number of rural voters of any Super Tuesday state, with almost 1.9 million. North Carolina comes second with almost 1.5 million, and Oklahoma is third with about 916,000. But rural voters are less likely to make a big impact in Texas than elsewhere, since they make up a much smaller share of overall voters than in North Carolina or Oklahoma. Rural Native Americans could have a big impact in Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Colorado, Maria Givens reports for the Yonder.

Still, Super Tuesday results will largely reflect metropolitan preferences, since half of the nation's 10 largest metro areas will vote today, Marema and Bishop note. But, they write: "That’s not to say rural voters won’t have an impact. It’s the Democratic primary that matters this year, since President Donald Trump faces no serious opposition. In a large Democratic field, smaller margins will matter. And that’s exactly when blocs of voters like the rural electorate could make a difference."