New covid-19 risk assessment identifies vulnerable rural areas by degree; see county-level data

Covid-19 relative risk factor scores by quintile of population at risk. (Iowa State University map; click on it to enlarge.)

Without widespread testing for the novel coronavirus, rural counties could appear to be at far less risk of a local outbreak than they actually are, especially in towns of 5,000 to 10,000, according to a new report from Iowa State University’s Extension and Outreach. "The missing data could put rural counties at risk of lowering their guard while the epidemic spreads across the country," Jan Pytalski writes for The Daily Yonder.

The ISU report says, "An outbreak of five severe cases requiring ICU hospitalization in a rural county will far outstrip local resources, but not make national headlines. There is a danger that needed resources will not flow to rural places if decisions are based on absolute counts instead of relative risk." The report's risk scores are in quintiles, or five divisions of 20 percentage points each.

The report posits that rural areas face higher and different risks of serious pandemic outcomes than urban areas, Pytalski reports. The researchers propose assessing rural risk based on 10 indicators grouped in seven components: population, density, percentage of the population living in institutional settings, percentage of seniors (age 65-84) and elders (age 85 and up), employment in elderly care facilities per 10,000 people, mortality rate for immunocompromised people per 100,000, mortality rate from diabetes, and the mortality rate from influenza and pneumonia.

The study is an interesting contrast to another recent project that estimated county-level pandemic preparedness. See it here.