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Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Study: Some social distancing may be needed through 2022

Intermittent social distancing may be needed through 2022 to keep covid-19 spikes from overwhelming the U.S. health care system, but much more testing is urgently needed to know more about how the virus might behave, says a newly published study in the journal Science.

Harvard University researchers examined a range of scenarios for how the virus will spread over the next five years. "The authors suggest a number of factors will play a major role in the path the disease will take over the coming years — if transmission subsides in summer and resurges in winter, if there is some immunity induced by infection and how long it lasts, and whether people get any cross-protective immunity from having been infected with related human coronaviruses that cause common colds," Helen Branswell reports for Stat. "Overall, the research concludes it is unlikely that life will return any time soon to the way it was before the virus’ emergence."

Their models predict that a one-time social distancing effort—such as what is happening now in the U.S.—won't stop transmission of the virus. The researchers see two ways that officials could loosen social distancing measures sooner: if a vaccine is developed, and/or a treatment that keeps cases from getting too serious, Branswell reports.

The researchers stressed the need to study blood samples over time to map out human immune responses to the virus and discern it behavior. Mark Lipsitch, the lead author, told Branswell that that's doubly important because some evidence indicates that not all covid-19 survivors develop a strong immune response, which means herd immunity will take longer to build up.

On Tuesday, President Trump announced a task force to help him decide when and how to end social-distancing measures; the list included business and sports leaders, but no health officials so far. Trump has been under heavy pressure from business leaders and some conservative politicians to reopen the country in order to avoid another expensive stimulus package. Governors in many states have pushed back though, asserting that they will choose when to end social distancing, Annie Karni and Maggie Haberman report for The New York Times.

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