Survey of rural heartland bankers shows strongest growth since 2013, from farmland prices and farm equipment sales

Creighton University chart compares current month to last month and year ago; click here to download the full report.

The December Creighton University survey of rural bankers in 10 Midwest states that rely on farming and energy showed the strongest growth for farmland prices and equipment sales since June 2013. The index surveys bankers in about 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300 in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

For the second time in the past three months, the Rural Mainstreet Index climbed above growth-neutral, climbing to its second-highest level in the past 10 months because of recent improvements in agriculture commodity prices, federal farm aid, and the Federal Reserve's record-low interest rates, according to Creighton economist Ernie Goss, who compiles the survey. The farm equipment sales index moved above growth positive for the first time in 86 months. 

Bankers continued to report "anemic" loan volumes, and non-farm hiring was down by 2.2 percent (non-seasonally adjusted) from pre-pandemic levels and 4.8% compared to 12 months ago. "Bankers were to indicate their top 10 concerns for 2021 and water availability and was the top concern (see tables). Not surprisingly, with strong 2020 farm income and farm commodity prices, farm financial conditions were of least concern for 2021 as judged by bank CEOs," Goss reports.