Rural coronavirus cases increased a little last week for first time since January, but a data problem could be the cause

Rates of new coronavirus infections, March 14-20
Daily Yonder map; click the image to enlarge it or click here for the interactive version

New rural coronavirus infections rose 5 percent last week over the week before, the first increase since early January. The rural death rate, a lagging pandemic indicator, continued to decline steadily, falling about 17% from two weeks ago. There were significant regional differences in trends.

From March 14-20, 40,578 new coronavirus infections and were reported in nonmetropolitan counties, Tim Murphy and Tim Marema report for The Daily Yonder. The rural death rate was 0.1% lower than the metropolitan rate last week, at 2.6 deaths per 100,000 residents compared to 2.5 per 100,000. That marks the first time in 32 weeks the metro death rate has edged above the rural rate.

Murphy and Marema note that the small bump in rural infections could be chalked up to data reporting problems in Missouri. "The state went from reporting 287 cases two weeks ago to about 4,400 new cases last week – a signal that the difference has more to do with data problems than actual spread of the coronavirus," Murphy and Marema report. However, they note, a few other states show a rebound in rural cases, including Alabama, Michigan and North Carolina. 

Click here for more data and analysis from the Yonder, including regional trends, charts, and an interactive map with county-level data.