Rural bankers in 10 heartland farm-and-energy states have highest level of economic confidence since 2006

Creighton University chart compares current month to last month and year ago; click here to download the full report.

A March survey of rural bankers in 10 Midwest states that rely on farming and energy showed continued optimism for the economy, with nearly 69 percent of bank CEOs surveyed reporting an expanding local economy. The overall confidence index was growth-positive for the fifth time in the past six months and jumped from February's 53.8 to a record 71.9, the highest level recorded since Creighton University launched the survey in January 2006. The index is a survey of bankers in about 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300 in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

"Sharp gains in grain prices, federal farm support, and the Federal Reserve’s record-low interest rates have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy," writes Creighton economist Ernie Goss, who compiles the index. "Only 3.1% of bank CEOs indicated economic conditions worsened from the previous month. Even so, current rural economic activity remains below pre-pandemic levels."

The farmland price index remained above growth-neutral for the sixth month straight, the first time such a thing has happened since 2013, hitting its highest level since November 2012. The farm equipment-sales index likewise had its highest reading since February 2013, marking the fourth month that index has been growth-positive after 86 straight months of below growth-neutral readings. And bankers reported an expansion in loan volumes in March for the first time since last September,.

The new hiring index jumped to 72.9 from February's 51.9, but the region is still playing catch-up. "Despite recent solid job gains for the region, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that nonfarm employment levels for the Rural Mainstreet economy are down by 218,600 (non-seasonally adjusted), or 5%, compared to pre-Covid-19 levels," Goss reports.