Census is likely to confirm white population is declining; demographer cites opioids, low millennial birth rate

"For the first time in the history of the country’s census-taking, the number of white people in the United States is widely expected to show a decline when the first racial breakdowns from the 2020 Census are reported this week," Tara Bahrampour and Ted Mellnik report for The Washington Post.

The Census Bureau has estimated for the past five years that the white population has been shrinking and that people of color have driven all population growth. Data from the 2020 decennial census, planned to be released tomorrow, is expected to confirm and quantify those estimates, Bahrampour and Mellnik report. If that happens, the benchmark will come about eight years earlier than previously estimated, according to Brookings Institution demographer William Frey. He noted that the opioid epidemic and low birth rates among millennials after the Great Recession have accelerated the decline.

Census Bureau estimates from 2016 to 2020 "show that all of the country’s population growth during that period came from increases in people of color. The largest and most steady gains were among Hispanics, who have doubled their population share over the past three decades to almost 20 percent and who are believed to account for half of the nation’s growth since 2010. They are expected to drive about half the growth in more than a dozen states, including Texas, Florida, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada," Bahrampour and Mellnik report. "The shifts signal what Frey calls a 'cultural generation gap,' with older generations that are much Whiter than younger ones. Racial minorities will drive all the growth in the U.S. labor force as White baby boomers retire and will make the difference between growth and decline in rural and suburban areas."