Democrats see rural problems beyond last week's Va. result

Last week's election, the first since Democrats took control of Congress and the White House, highlighted the party's weakness in rural areas. Much has been made of the results in Virginia, where high turnout among rural voters helped Republican Glenn Youngkin defeat former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who served as governor from 2014-2018. But Democrats' concerns are national.

NBC News chart compares races for governor.

In Virginia, not only did more rural voters show up, but more of them voted Republican. They were 16 percent of the state's voters in 2020, 19% this year. And though President Biden lost rural Virginia by about 6 points, McAuliffe lost by 27—a much more difficult margin to make up in the 2022 midterms through increased suburban and urban turnout, Dante Chinni writes for NBC News.

Some Democrats believed their rural vote "had already bottomed out, especially during the Trump era, when Republicans had run up the numbers of white voters in rural areas to dizzying new heights. Virginia, however, is proof it can get worse," Astead Herndon and Shane Goldmacher write for The New York Times. "In 2008, there were only four small Virginia counties where Republicans won 70% or more . . . Youngkin was above 70% in 45 counties, and he surpassed 80% in 15."

Democrats were hurt in Virginia by McAuliffe's gaffe about parents and schools, and frustrations over school closures in the pandemic, as well as Republican arguments about "taxes and anti-racist school curriculums they claim have gone too far," Dan Balz of The Washington Post reports. But Youngkin's win went beyond specific policies. As Dee Davis, president of the Center for Rural Strategies, told Balz: "What the Democrats have a hard time understanding is that politics are cultural and not logical."

Elsewhere, Democrats said the Virginia result was indicative of broader problems the party has with rural voters. "The twin results raise a foreboding possibility for Democrats: that the party had simply leased the suburbs in the Trump era, while Republicans may have bought and now own even more of rural America," the Times reports. Former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a rural Democrat from North Dakota who lost her seat in 2018, told The Hill, the bottom line for Democrats is that "You can't be a majority party in this country without doing better in rural America."

Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois who led the House Democratic campaign arm in 2020 and isn't seeking re-election, told the Times, “It’s not sustainable for our party to continue to tank in small-town America. . . . We’ve got a branding problem as Democrats in way too many parts of our country.” Herndon and Goldmacher, reporting from Hot Springs, Va., conclude, "Some Democrats urge the party to just show up more. Some believe liberal ideas can gain traction, such as universal health care and free community college. Others urge a refocus on kitchen-table economics like jobs programs and rural broadband to improve connectivity. But it is not clear how open voters are to even listening."