Trade wars etc. already have fertilizer prices sky high; sanctions on Russia and Belarus could boost them more

"In the past year and a half, the fertilizer industry has seen a multitude of challenges. Impacts stemming from winter freezes, Hurricane Ida, Covid-19, production costs, trade sanctions on various countries, and supply chain disruptions have hoisted the price of fertilizer up. On top of all those factors, producers are looking at potential price impacts from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Madelyn Ostendorf reports for Successful Farming.

Trade disputes with major exporters are mostly blame for sky-high fertilizer prices, one industry stakeholder said last week. "Brooke McMullin, vice president of International Raw Materials Ltd., said while agriculture groups, Midwest lawmakers, governors and others are calling for investigations into fertilizer prices, they need to look no further than ongoing trade disputes with major fertilizer-exporting countries," Todd Neeley reports for DTN/The Progressive Farmer. "A combination of consolidation in U.S. fertilizer production capacity and countervailing duties slapped on fertilizer imports from Russia, Morocco, Trinidad and Tobago have contributed to higher fertilizer prices, he said."

Meanwhile, Russia's invasion of Ukraine could take prices even higher. "With its most fervent ally in Europe, Belarus, Russia has a 40 percent market share in global production and export of potash fertilizer. The two autocracies form an informal cartel in the potash market, made up of Uralkali and Belaruskali, with the Belarusian Potash Company being the latter’s export arm," Garphil Julien reports for The Washington Monthly. The U.S. imposed sanctions on Belarus last year for a migrant crisis on the Polish border. 

"U.S. sanctions on Belarus are likely to exacerbate the issue, with Belaruskali announcing last week that it wouldn’t be able to meet its contracts. One of the world’s largest fertilizer companies, Yara International, headquartered in Norway, announced it would reduce its sourcing of Belarusian potash by April. Other corporations in the potash industry are not planning on increasing production and would face challenges in their attempts."