Democrat wins U.S. House seat in largely rural N.Y. district; Republican wins the other, but Dems seem more motivated

Democrat Pat Ryan won a special House election in a largely rural district in New York Tuesday, suggesting that the midterm elections will not be a disaster for his party after all.

Ryan, the executive of Ulster County and a combat veteran, defeated Republican Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro by 1.8 percentage points in the 19th District, which President Biden won by 2 points in 2020 and Donald Trump won by 7 in 2016.

"This is not the result that you would expect to see in a strongly Republican political climate," NBC News analyst Steve Kornacki said on MSNBC as the race was called. "For Democrats you could not get more encouraging signs in a political landscape that looked terrible for them a few months ago." He called the 19th "a truly bellwether district."

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In a somewhat less rural New York district that is more Republican, the southwestern 23rd, GOP nominee Joe Sempolinski got just over 53% of the vote Democrat Max Della Pia in another special election, Jeff Smith of the Elmira Star-Gazette reports.

Denis Slattery and Dave Goldiner of the New York Daily News write, "Special elections tend to be an accurate assessment of the overall political climate because they attract the most engaged voters from each party, political data crunchers say."

Ryan campaigned hard against the Supreme Court's reversal of the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that established abortion rights. "Molinaro, meanwhile, tried to focus on other issues," reports Amy Wang of The Washington Post. "The special election was closely watched as a possible bellwether for other midterm races around the country, as Democrats attempt to channel voters’ anger over the Supreme Court decision, as well as other abortion restrictions that Republican-led state legislatures have imposed since."

Grace Ashford of The New York Times looks ahead: "Mr. Ryan will be seeking a full term in Congress in November, but — in a confusing redistricting-year twist — it will not be in the 19th District. His home lies within the new boundaries of the 18th District, where he is running in November. His Republican opponent in that race will be Assemblyman Colin Schmitt of New Windsor. Despite Mr. Molinaro’s loss in the 19th District, he, too, will be seeking a full term in Congress in November — in the district’s new contours."

Based on Ryan's "impressive" win, political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia changed his ratings on the two districts, based on Ryan's win. The new 18th went from tossup to leans Democratic and the 19th went from leans Republican to tossup. "Higher Democratic voter enthusiasm likely explains Ryan’s victory," wrote Kyle Kondik, editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball.