Global grain stocks hit a decade low amid war, bad weather

Reuters graph, adapted by The Rural Blog; click on it to enlarge.

Global grain stocks are the lowest in a decade, and bad weather and the war in Ukraine are "heightening the risk of famine in some of the world's poorest nations," reports Tom Polansek of Reuters.

Grain shipments from Ukraine "are too few and harvests from other major crop producers are smaller than initially expected," due to poor weather, Polansek reports. "The United States, the world's top corn producer, is now expected to harvest its smallest corn crop in three years. Drought also punished European harvests and is threatening South America's upcoming planting season."

When the 2022-23 crop year ends, Polansek writes, "The world's buffer stocks of corn will be enough for just 80 days' worth of consumption, down 28% from five years ago and the lowest level since 2010-11, according to figures compiled for Reuters by the International Grains Council, an intergovernmental organization. That would be fewer days of corn stocks than the world had in 2012, when the last global food crisis spurred riots. Policymakers are worried."

Polasek cites South Dakota corn grower Mark Gross, who "expects to harvest as few as 20 bushels per acre on some fields this autumn, down more than 80% from the local average last year, after drought and fierce winds ravaged his land. Gross said the weather remained too dry in the spring and then two derecho windstorms brought destructive 100-mile-per-hourgusts across fields in Hutchinson County and southeastern parts of the state."

"It's lining up to be like 2012," Gross said. "No one wants to admit it, but it's true."