Rural turnout has lagged in recent special elections, but Republicans say that's not a good predictor for the midterms

In special elections held since the Supreme Court's June decision that struck down Roe v. Wade, poll watchers have seen an uptick in voter participation in urban and suburban counties, but rural voter participation flatlined in those elections, report from Holly Otterbein and Jessica Piper of Politico. That worries Republicans trying to take a House majority in the midterm elections on Nov. 8.

A man votes in Minneapolis (Photo by Nicole Neri, AP)

In four special elections held since the decision in Nebraska, Minnesota and New York, "The portion of registered voters who cast ballots averaged 27 percent in suburban and urban counties, compared to 22 percent in rural counties," Politico reports. Before the decision, rural turnout rates were 18 percent. Suburban and urban rates were 19 and 20 percent respectively.

“Republicans are not as energized as they want or expected, and Democrats are very energized right now,” said Chris Walsh, campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Pat Ryan of New York, who defeated his Republican challenger in an August special election. Democratic operatives largely told Politico that the court decision energized Democrats, while Republican campaign workers dismissed the theory. Will Dawson, campaign manager for the Republican candidate who lost to Ryan, said Democrats have created a "false narrative" claiming the midterms are a referendum on abortion. “The midterm elections are and always have been a referendum on the White House.”

Otterbein and Piper write that the GOP is "still the odds-on favorite to win a majority in the House, and inflation and dissatisfaction with Biden continue to be a drag on every Democrat running for office." John Couvillon, a pollster who typically works for Republicans, said Washington state's all-party primary in early August was a better predictor for the November elections. In that primary, there were no major differences in turnout between rural areas and bigger counties.