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Tuesday, December 06, 2022

Rural America grew last year for the first time in a decade, even more so than metropolitan areas, but future uncertain

Carsey Institute graph from census data
After 10 years of population decline, rural America is growing again. That's what the newest analysis of census data from Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire is indicating.

"Recent research suggests that the turbulent economic, social, and epidemiological conditions of recent years altered traditional demographic trends in non-metropolitan America," writes Kenneth Johnson, professor of sociology and senior demographer at Carsey.

The decade prior to 2020 was noted by rural depopulation, as many people left rural areas in favor of more urban living and rural areas had more deaths than births. "Yet, the latest Census Bureau population estimates document renewed population gains in nonmetropolitan America between April 2020 and July 2021," Johnson writes. "In fact, the rural population gain exceeded that in metropolitan areas, something that is rare in American history." Johnson explains that the number of people moving into rural areas exceeded the "growing excess of deaths over births fostered by Covid-19."

Johnson reports some migration to rural areas was seen in "high amenity recreational and retirement areas because net migration gains to these counties accelerated early in the pandemic." While some rural areas continue to see declines, many counties still saw gains "but a sizable number of counties had population increases" because more people moved into areas than died from Covid 19.

To survive, rural counties need continued, sustained migration. Johnson writes, "only sustained net migration gains can provide the demographic lifeline these communities need to stave off depopulation. Whether these nonmetropolitan migration gains will continue in this turbulent era remains to be seen."

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