Southern rural counties gained 200,500 people in 2021, IRS data shows, but that's not the whole picture

Chart by Sarah Melotte, The Daily Yonder, from IRS data

In 2021, the pandemic changed more than life expectancy in the U.S., it also altered where people chose to live, with more than 325,000 Americans moving from metropolitan areas to rural counties, reports Sarah Melotte of The Daily Yonder.

The South, which is the major region with the most rural population, “also had more in-migration to rural counties than other regions on a per capita basis,” Melotte reports. “Out of all the people who moved from larger cities to rural areas in 2021, two-thirds wound up living in the rural South, a Daily Yonder analysis of IRS data shows.” Southern rural counties gained 65% of the number of people who moved from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan counties in 2021. The Midwest came in second place at 25% for regions with rural in-migrant gains.

“Our analysis revealed that most urban expats in 2021 came from neighboring metros in the same state,” Melotte explains. “The pie chart shows that an overwhelming majority (98%) of people who contributed to rural growth in the Southern U.S. came from cities and suburbs within the South.” People from Mid-Atlantic counties represented a tiny fraction of movers at 1%, and less than a percent came from the Southwest.

Chart by Sarah Melotte, The Daily Yonder, from IRS data

Despite 200,500 people moving into Southern rural counties, the gains determined by IRS data don’t include the number of deaths and births. Melotte reports, “For example, 379 people moved to rural Rabun County, Georgia, in 2021, but the county’s total population change that year only added up to 174 people, according to Census estimates. That’s because some residents moved out, and others died that year." When out-migration and deaths were considered, the net gain in rural population in the South was about 20,500 residents, representing a 0.12% increase from the previous year.