U.S. physician shortages expected to increase dramatically as older doctors retire or quit because of heavy workloads

Lack of doctors will mean a sicker population.
(Photo by J.C. Gellidon, Unsplash)

U.S. physician shortages are expected to increase substantially as aging doctors retire or extreme workloads push them out. "As the aging population's need for care grows, retirement and burnout are both driving swaths of health care workers out of the field, fueling a crisis that shows no signs of stopping,"  reports Alejandra O'Connell-Domenech of The Hill. "The country is expected to suffer a shortage of up to 124,000 physicians in the next 12 years, according to a 2019 report from the Association of American Medical Colleges." American Medical Association President Jesse Ehrenfeld told O'Connell-Domenech: "When people don't have access to routine primary care and preventative services [due to no physician access], they live sicker and die younger. . . . These are things that are only going to get worse as we put more pressure on the physician workforce." In many rural areas, the lack of doctors is already a stark reality.

If there aren't enough physicians, those who are working will have to work longer hours with sicker patients, which leads to burnout and more doctors deciding to retire or leave medicine altogether. "A 2022 study found that nearly 63 percent of physicians experienced symptoms of burnout by the end of 2021, representing a 19 percent increase from 2017," O'Connell-Domenech reports. "Another 2022 study determined that one out of five doctors said they were likely to leave their current practice within two years, citing burnout and workload as two major reasons."

The numbers explain another reason for the shortage. "There are about 55.8 million people aged 65 and older in the United States, according to Census Bureau," O'Connell-Domenech explains. "Their numbers are growing and will continue to do so. . . . Almost half of working physicians in the United States are 55 and older, according to the AMA. Thirty-five percent of the physician workforce will reach retirement age within the next five years."

Possible solutions include lessening student loan debt and increasing the number of physicians allowed to train. "The Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act of 2023 could help by lifting the cap on residency programs," O'Connell-Domenech adds. "The bill. . . would expand the number of Medicare-supported medical residency positions by 14,000 over seven years. . . . Another piece of legislation that could help stem the shortage is the Conrad State 30 and Physician Access Reauthorization Act, according to Ehrenfeld. Under the bill, international doctors could stay in the U.S. after their residency programs as long as they committed to practicing medicine in parts of the country with physician shortages. . . . Easing medical student debt could also potentially increase the amount of doctors willing to work in underserved areas, Ehrenfeld said."