Will inflation deflate American Christmas dinners? Many people say they might cut back on desserts, side items

Will ongoing U.S. inflation stifle Americans' "eat, drink and be merry" Christmas meal? Researchers from Purdue and Illinois University agricultural departments wanted to find out. "Inflation has been a key topic for much of the last two years," report Maria Kalaitzandonakes, Jonathan Coppess and Brenna Ellison. "The latest update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that inflation continues to cool. For food prices, the report shows that prices rose 0.2% in the last month and are 2.9% higher now than 12 months ago (BLS, 2023)."

But despite some reprieve from food inflation, "the increased demands of the holidays means that not all consumers are feeling so jolly. We asked participants who typically celebrate a winter holiday with a meal whether they expected rising food prices to impact their meal plans," researchers write. "We find that over two-thirds thought their meals would be affected."

Among individuals who "indicated rising food prices would impact their meal, we asked about several potential strategies they might use to manage the cost of the meal. Table 1, above, shows the proportion of these consumers who plan to use each strategy," Kalaitzandonakes, Coppess, and Ellison explain. "Participants could select multiple strategies. The most common strategies were shopping for deals on ingredients (52.0%) and shopping ahead of time to spread out the cost (40.4%). However, reducing the number of foods and amounts of foods was also quite common. In open responses, consumers also mentioned the potential to cut back on certain food items – most commonly desserts, appetizers, and sides."

What's for the big dinner? "Reducing the amount of meat or changing up the types of foods served is one way consumers are managing food costs this holiday season," researchers add. "In Table 2, we show Christmas protein choices across consumers who expect rising prices to impact their holiday meal and those who do not. . . . Relevant for many farmers and ranchers, we also asked about reducing the amount of meat. We find that 16.9% of consumers who expect rising food prices to impact their holiday meal planned reduce the amount of meat they serve. In open-ended responses, some consumers mentioned scaling down the size of their proteins."