Construction and agriculture industries 'brace' for potential changes to U.S. immigration and tariff policies

Several U.S. sectors are preparing for imminent changes the transition to a Republican president and Congress promise to bring. Stories focused on upcoming changes are excerpted below.

Undocumented workers make up roughly 13%
of the construction industry. (Adobe Stock photo)

President-elect Donald Trump's planned immigration crackdown and tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will hit the housing market with a "one-two punch," report Elizabeth Findell and Gina Heeb of The Wall Street Journal. "In Texas, California, New Jersey and the District of Columbia, immigrants make up more than half of construction trade workers. . . Undocumented workers make up an estimated 13% of the construction industry." Beyond the possible loss of skilled trade workers, "the president-elect’s proposed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico could increase the cost of construction materials."

Once Trump and a solidly Republican Congress are back at work, health officials anticipate the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion will be "back on the chopping block," reports Phil Galewitz of KFF Health News. "More than 3 million adults in nine states would be at immediate risk of losing their health coverage should the GOP reduce the extra federal Medicaid funding that’s enabled states to widen eligibility." Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Utah and Virginia all have trigger laws that would swiftly end their Medicaid expansions if federal funding changes.

In 2023, the United States exported 17.83 metric tons
of wheat, worth $6.08 billion. (Adobe Stock photo)

Farmers and meat plants are "bracing" for immigration changes, including possible mass deportations of some current workers, reports Patick Thomas of The Wall Street Journal. "America’s food-supply chain relies on a predominantly immigrant workforce for some of its most challenging jobs. . . . About two-thirds of U.S. crop-farm workers are foreign-born, and 42% aren’t legally authorized to work in the country, according to a Labor Department report. . . . Having a smaller pool of workers would likely prompt companies to raise wages, but that could result in higher food prices."

If the Trump administration makes good on its promise to levy tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, a trade war is likely; however, the administration may no longer have free rein to tap into the Agriculture Department's discretionary spending to buffer farm losses. "A bipartisan cohort of lawmakers want to rein in a pot of money Trump’s first administration used to compensate farmers decimated by the then-president’s trade confrontation with China," reports Skye Witley of Bloomberg News. "A farm bill package that would require congressional approval of certain Agriculture Department discretionary spending supporting the farm economy" was championed by Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and House Agriculture Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.)

Brooke Rollins in 2021
(Wikipedia photo)

While many of the incoming administration's actions were anticipated, Trump surprised some lawmakers and agriculture groups when he nominated Brooke Rollins as his Agriculture secretary. "Trump’s decision to tap her came amid bitter infighting over the role among his advisers, family members and powerful agriculture groups, report Grace Yarrow and Meredith Lee Hill of Politico. "Rollins, who grew up on a farm, has less experience in agriculture policy than those on Trump’s shortlist. Rollins is from Texas and has a degree in agricultural development. While some GOP lawmakers on Capitol Hill were surprised by the pick, she’s expected to have a fairly smooth Senate confirmation."