Report: Social Security trust fund needs attention now if it's going to stay viable past 2034

If changes aren't made, the Social Security trust fund 
will run out of money by 2034.  (Adobe Stock photo) 

Social Security benefits play a vital role in communities nationwide; however, rural areas may be more dependent on the program because their populations skew older. Regardless of region, 73 million Americans currently depend on the program’s monthly payments; however, its 2025 Trustee Report indicates that the program needs attention to meet its expenses, reports Gopi Shah Goda for Brookings.

The report outlines how the Social Security trust fund will run out of money by 2034, and will "no longer be able to make all of its promised benefit payments," Goda explains. According to the report, the shortfall will continue to grow since the program lacks sufficient payroll taxes to cover its ongoing and predicted future costs.

"The shortfall amounts to 3.82% of taxable payroll, meaning that the payroll tax rate would have to be raised immediately—and permanently—from the current rate of 12.4% of taxable earnings to 16.1% in order for the program to be able to pay all promised benefits through 2099," Goda writes. "In 2025, that increase would have amounted to an extra $374 billion in program revenue."

Even if the Trump administration were able to eliminate all Social Security fraud, overpayments and any other human error costs, it would not compensate for the billions needed. "Even this unrealistic, pie-in-the-sky scenario would only yield 'savings' of $10.2 billion per year, barely moving the needle in terms of the program’s $1.48 trillion annual cost," Goda adds. "Social Security is already a lean operation."

Cutting more Social Security staff members would likely result in reduced services and even longer wait times for disability determinations. Goda writes, "It is very likely that any additional cuts in staffing will make it harder for Americans — particularly the most vulnerable — to access benefits they have earned, with dire consequences."

While there are solutions, few are likely to be popular. "There is no free lunch. . .changes would involve difficult tradeoffs between beneficiaries and workers as well as current and future generations," Goda writes. "Policy options that raise revenues include increasing the payroll tax rate or broadening the income base to which that the payroll tax is applied. . . . .Cutting benefits across the board, raising the retirement age at which a beneficiary is eligible for full benefits, reducing benefits disproportionately for higher earners. . . .Some action will be necessary within the next decade."