Why the closed Strait of Hormuz will increase grocery prices and add to world hunger

Goods and fuel normally flow out of the Persian Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz. (Wikimedia map)

As the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran continues through the spring planting season, Americans and the world at large are likely to see food costs increase as farmers who would normally be fertilizing their soils for corn seed may change their planting choices, writes Aya S. Chacar, an expert on how institutions affect businesses and supply chains, for The Conversation.

Part of the increased expenses will come from fertilizer costs or from reduced crop productivity due to reduced fertilizer supplies during planting season. "Three staple crops – corn, wheat and rice – supply more than half of the world’s dietary calories. To maximize production, those crops need three main nutrients: nitrogen, phosphate and potassium," Chacar explains. "The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the supply and increased the cost of all three."

Faced with soaring fertilizer prices, farmers will have to choose how much nitrogen-hungry seeds like corn to plant and when. "Reducing nitrogen application by 10% to 15% or delaying application by 2 to 4 weeks can reduce corn yields by 10% to 25," Chacar writes. Less food for people also changes what foods are available for livestock and its cost. Higher grain costs to feed cattle, for instance, will increase the price of beef. In the end, consumers will see prices increase.

While Americans have seen gas prices increase in real time as the war continues, more expensive food prices will take longer to emerge, but they will come all the same. Chacar adds, "In March 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture used data from before the Iran war to project a 3.1% average increase for all food prices."

Beyond fuel costs, corn prices are likely to be a primary driver of grocery price increases. "Corn tortillas and other relatively lightly processed corn foods are more likely to show price responses within a few months after corn prices increase," according to Chacar. Cereal and meat price increases will take a bit longer to reach consumer pocketbooks.

Should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed, the resulting fertilizer shortage will be a global problem, as it will affect American crop choices and yields. Chacar writes, "More than 300 million people worldwide already do not have enough food. The U.N. World Food Program predicts an additional 45 million could join them by the end of 2026 if the conflict in the Middle East continues into the middle of the year."