projections of the House health bill, called the American Health Care Act, "which suggest that the premium for a 40-year-old under the AHCA would be similar to the premium for a 40-year-old under the ACA, before accounting for tax credits and for the same level of coverage. We therefore assume that the premium before tax credits for the lowest cost bronze plan and the second-lowest cost silver plan under the ACA is equal to the premium for a similar plan (with 60 percent and 70 percent actuarial values) under the BCRA for a 40-year-old." BCRA is the Better Care Reconciliation Act, the title of the Senate bill.
Kaiser notes, "We use the projected premium for the lowest cost 'bronze' plan in each county as an equivalent for the BCRA benchmark plan to calculate tax credits under the BCRA. The BCRA makes it easier for states to waive certain provisions of the law, including the essential benefits insurers are required to cover. Such waivers would tend to lower premiums but increase out-of-pocket costs for health care. Our analysis is based on states not seeking waivers.