Severe weather and wildfires have home insurance rates climbing in states where rates had been cheaper

Hailstorms in Iowa have caused home insurance
rates to spike. (Photo by Champers Fu, Unsplash)

After a decade of severe weather and wildfires across multiple regions of the U.S., many home insurance companies have responded by increasing their rates to reflect emerging risks. 

Home insurance rate increases can be particularly onerous for rural residents who already pay more because of their distance from emergency and fire services.

In the past, traditional home insurance policies were more expensive in coastal states, where hurricanes could devastate hundreds of homes in a single season. Lower rates were reserved for inland states considered less likely to be hit by Mother Nature's seasonal wrath.

But that old playbook has been swept aside, report Carl Churchill, Jaclyn Jeffrey-Wilensky, Jean Eaglesham and Jason French of The Wall Street Journal. "Now, hailstorms, wildfires and wind damage are hammering places once thought to be shielded from the worst rate hikes."

In Iowa, where hailstorms have become more common, home-insurance rates have "increased 91% since 2021: In Florida, despite the hurricane risk, the increase is 35%," the Journal reports.

Before buying a new home, it can be worthwhile to see how much it will cost to insure. "Home-insurance premiums can vary dramatically, depending on where you live: Crossing a county line can more than double the cost," the Journal reports.

In high-risk areas of the country, finding an insurance company willing to issue coverage is difficult, and policy prices have skyrocketed. A resident in Braue of Orinda, Calif., said his "annual premium had shot up to $16,496, more than nine times his premium of less than two years ago," the Journal reports. "The reason? Wildfires, which are scorching homeowners’ chances of cheaper insurance in many states."

How states regulate home insurance rates also impacts home policy pricing. According to the article, "North Carolina is one of 11 states that allow regulators to veto requested home-insurance rate increases. . . .Cross over from Cherokee County, North Carolina, to Monroe County, Tennessee, and the typical rate jumps more than 50%." Despite similar risk assessments, the state with regulatory controls has lower rates.

Independent primary care doctors see banding together as one way to remain solvent and keep their autonomy

Valley Medical Group joined an IPA to help regain its
financial footing. (New England Public Media photo)

As the number of primary care doctors in the U.S. continues to decrease, the number of independent primary care practices has also fallen. A practice in the Connecticut River Valley, Valley Medical Group, has sought to maintain its independence while boosting its bottom line by joining with other independent primary physicians, reports Karen Brown of New England Public Media.

Founded during the 1990s, Valley Medical Group has become one of the "largest independent practices in western Massachusetts," Brown writes. But the practice's patient volume and focus on quality family medical care haven't shielded it from the financial pitfalls of the American insurance payment system, which rewards specialists and physicians who perform procedures over primary care.

Valley Medical Group owners found themselves stuck in insurance contracts that didn't pay well or accurately. "In January, the practice laid off 40 employees — 10% of its 400-person staff — mostly in support positions," Brown writes. "Thousands of primary care practices, a key gateway to the medical system, are fighting to remain financially viable — and independent."

VMG doctors also wanted to avoid selling their practice to a hospital, which would likely take away some of their clinical autonomy. Instead, the group opted to join an Independent Physician Association. Brown explains, "Like a union, an IPA combines individual primary care offices, giving them power in numbers when negotiating contracts with Medicaid, Medicare, and private insurance companies."

While not all IPAs are equal -- some are owned by hospitals or private equity funds -- most help level the financial playing field for smaller practices. According to Brown, when independent practices band together, they can accept insurance contracts that pay them a per-patient allotment rather than billing for each visit or procedure.

Chris Kryder, CEO of Arches Medical IPA in Cambridge, Massachusetts, told Brown, "If we keep people out of the ER, keep them out of unnecessary hospitalizations, we save money for the system. . . And we create more income for the primary care providers, which is dreadfully needed."

A Medicare pilot program will use artificial intelligence for prior authorizations. Doctors and lawmakers are alarmed.

Some prior authorization requests are already decided
by artificial intelligence. (Adobe Stock photo) 

A Medicare pilot program that allows private companies to use artificial intelligence to approve or deny medical care requested by their members has some doctors and lawmakers worried. Companies included in the pilot would get paid, "based on how much money they save Medicare by denying approvals," reports Anna Claire Vollers of Stateline.

The pilot, known as the Wasteful and Inappropriate Services Reduction (WISeR) Model, will launch after Jan. 1 in six states: Arizona, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, Texas and Washington. WISeR is more likely to impact health care treatments for rural Americans in those states because rural populations often skew older and sicker than their suburban and urban counterparts.

At its core, the WISeR model effectively introduces a prior authorization process into traditional Medicare. Prior authorization is already unpopular with many patients and doctors because it requires members or medical providers to request an insurance company's approval for certain treatments or medications before proceeding.

While some Medicare Advantage and private insurance companies have already deployed AI into some of their prior authorization processes, its use has "attracted intense criticism, legislative action by state and federal lawmakers, federal investigations and class-action lawsuits," Vollers explains. "It’s been linked to bad health outcomes. Dozens of states have passed legislation in recent years to regulate the practice."

The new program has "alarmed many physicians and advocates in the affected states," Vollers reports. In practice, the prior authorization process can create obstacles to care by requiring physicians to spend hours fighting with an insurance company to justify the care they believe their patient needs. At times, medical providers may avoid treatments that would be best because an insurance company is likely to deny them, at least initially.

Last month, congressional representatives from several states "introduced a bill to repeal the WISeR model. It’s currently in committee," Vollers reports. The program is scheduled to run from 2026 to 2031.

If Congress doesn't extend enhanced health care tax credits, 4 million rural Americans could face steep premium hikes

Average health care premium comparison before and after ACA credits for 10 'farm states.'
(Robert Woods Johnson Foundation graph)

Without the Affordable Care Act's enhanced tax credits, roughly four million rural Americans could see significant increases to their health care insurance premiums. Last year, the Health and Human Services reported that 17% of individuals who purchased insurance through the ACA marketplace were rural residents, reports Chris Clayton of Progressive Farmer.

While Washington lawmakers focus on eliminating programs that could use American tax dollars to pay for health insurance for illegal immigrants, "there is less talk about how much rural America relies on those tax credits," Clayton explains. "The tax credits have been a major driver for reducing the number of uninsured Americans."

In 2024, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation reviewed "enrollment of Medicaid and marketplace policies in ten 'farm states,'" Clayton reports. "In that study, eight states -- all but Iowa and Kentucky -- showed more than 5% of residents were enrolled in ACA marketplace policies."

Without ACA enhanced tax credits, health insurance premiums may be out of reach for many rural Americans. According to the article, an individual making $35,000, with enhanced tax credits, would pay a health care premium of $1,033 per year. Without ACA credits, the premium jumps to $2,615 annually, representing a $1,582 increase.

"Overall, the enhanced tax credits saved rural enrollees an average of $890 per year, about 28% more than their urban counterparts," Clayton reports.

More U.S. homeowners no longer have home insurance, 'leaving them exposed to financial ruin'

National Association of Insurance Commissioners and Federal Insurance Office, Department of the Treasury map

Whether it's tornadoes, wildfires, torrential rains, flooding or atmospheric rivers, extreme weather has carved a path of destruction across the United States. The collective losses caused drastic increases in home insurance costs, leaving some Americans unable to pay, "threatening what is, for many people, their most valuable asset," report Christopher Flavelle and Mira Rojanasakul of The New York Times.

New government data shows how increasing numbers of Americans have "given up on paying their insurance premiums, leaving them exposed to financial ruin," Flavelle and Rojanasakul explain. "The rising cancellation rates are part of a broader trend captured by the Treasury Department, which analyzed information for 246 million insurance policies issued by 330 insurers nationwide from 2018 through 2022."

How and when home policies get dropped depends on a variety of factors. For instance, some homeowners don't have a bank or lien-holder, so they can take the risk and drop their insurance. When policyholders fails to pay their premiums, their insurance company will cancel their policy for non-payment. Other homeowners lose coverage when their insurance company refuses to renew their policy. Without home insurance, homeowners are exposed to possible financial ruin and homelessness.

The rates of cancellations and nonrenewals "are increasing, and those increases are most pronounced in high-risk areas," the Times reports. "In more than 150 ZIP codes around the country, insurers canceled at least 10 percent of home insurance policies in 2022, the most recent year for which numbers are available because homeowners failed to pay their premiums."

While the new information doesn't explain why homeowners have stopped paying for their insurance, "Nellie Liang, the Treasury Department’s under secretary for domestic finance, said her team viewed it as an indicator of families facing growing financial stress worsened by climate change," Flavelle and Rojanasakul write. 

FEMA maps didn't prepare N.C. homeowners for Helene; some think flood insurance model needs an overhaul

Some homes became part of mudslides and slid into Helene's
racing, torrential waters. (WHAS ABC photo via youtube)

The Federal Emergency Management Agency's flood maps don't include heavy rain and other water sources that put certain areas at risk. In regions of North Carolina, the agency's omissions left many homebuyers unaware and uninsured against the ravages of Hurricane Helene, report Kevin Crowe, Shannon Osaka and John Muyskens of The Washington Post.

The Post used an "analysis of flood risk data from First Street, a climate modeling group, and found that just 2% of properties in the mountainous counties of western North Carolina fall inside areas marked as having a special risk of flooding. . . . (a) designation, which compels homeowners to buy flood insurance if they want to get a federally backed mortgage."

Experts have long warned that FEMA's maps are lagging behind science and current weather trends, but communities often balk at mapping changes. "Local officials often resist changes that show their areas more at risk, because the designation comes with extra costs," the Post reports. "Once an area is designated in the special flood zone, buildings have to follow more stringent federal guidelines." Some experts are pushing to have the entire federal flood insurance model overhauled.

FEMA's maps underestimate flood risk because the agency fails "to take into account flooding from heavy rain, small streams and tributaries, or climate change’s future impact — and can fall short when assessing current risks in a wetter, hotter world," the Post reports. When a region's topography and current climate threats are not figured into risk equations, homebuyers are left unknowingly vulnerable to flooding.

"In Buncombe County, where rising waters swamped areas like Asheville and Swannanoa, First Street’s maps show a much larger area of flood risk than the FEMA maps do," the Post article explains. "About 2,100 properties out of about 125,000 in the county are in FEMA’s flood zone, compared with 19,500 under First Street’s model."

FEMA high-risk flood zone maps don't 'reflect the risk of heavy rainfall,' leaving many property owners at risk

Flooding can close rural roads for days.
(Adobe Stock photo)

When tropical storm Debby drenched stretches of the northeastern U.S., it left roads, homes and businesses massively damaged or even washed away. The catastrophe spotlighted a continuing trend of extreme rainfall fueled by climate change hammering communities that were never considered a flood risk, reports Jean Eaglesham of The Wall Street Journal. "Growing swaths of the U.S. that have never before been flooded are now in danger of being swamped. . . .Yet the government’s official flood maps haven’t been updated to reflect rainfall risk."

Flood insurance is a separate policy purchase from standard home insurance and typically property owners use the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s official flood maps for flood insurance purchasing guidance, which may be unwise. Eaglesham writes, "FEMA maps show eight million properties in high-risk flood zones. . . .The actual number of homes facing such risk is more than double that, according to research firm First Street Foundation. Much of the difference is because FEMA zones don’t reflect the risk of heavy rainfall."

At a time when torrential rainfall is becoming more common, a jump in flood insurance purchases by property owners may seem logical, but that's not what's happening. "The National Flood Insurance Program, which provides the lion’s share of flood coverage, had 4.65 million policies at the end of July, down 1.4% from the previous year and a million fewer than the peak of 5.7 million policies in 2009," Eaglesham reports. "The vast majority of Americans don’t have separate flood insurance."

If few property owners are insured when extreme weather destroys a region, taxpayers end up footing a lot of the bill. "The nationwide flood-insurance shortfall means the cost of rebuilding often falls on the taxpayer—via disaster relief — or inundated homeowners themselves," Eaglesham adds. "Many homeowners have dropped flood insurance because of the federal flood insurance program's cost increases. . . . The changes resulted in some policyholders facing huge premium increases."

Quick hits: Calamity-predicting maps; rural areas grow; check out this freezer; are there ghosts in your kitchen?

First Street aims to predict natural calamities.
(First Street aerial photo)

As home insurance rates continue to spike upward, many insurers, home buyers and owners want more accurate, detailed information on how likely a climate catastrophe is in their region. The climate and tech non-profit First Street is "building up-to-date flood maps to estimate what could happen to homes and businesses in an era of rising sea levels and more frequent, stronger storms," reports Leslie Kaufman of Bloomberg News. The company uses advanced climate science and engineering to identify the risk for every property in the country.

As some Americans choose to leave urban hubs, rural America is growing. "In 2020–21 and 2021–22, rural areas experienced an increase in population because more people moved from urban to rural areas than in the opposite direction, a reversal of domestic migration trends from the previous decade," reports the Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service. "Net domestic migration in rural areas jumped from near zero in 2019–20 to more than 0.35 percent in the last two years."

Wilkinson's book celebrates the magical connection
between food and family. (Courtesy photo via UKN)

Family food traditions and recipes are often seen and shared as treasures. Crystal Wilkinson, a Kentucky author and poet, sees her cooking as a path to channeling with her Black Appalachian ancestors, report Lindsey Piercy and Kody Kiser for the University of Kentucky News. "Raised by her grandparents in the hollers of Indian Creek, Kentucky, Wilkinson vividly remembers the dishes that were commonplace in her childhood." Wilkinson calls on cooking memories as a way to reconnect with those she has lost. Her new book is Praisesong for the Kitchen Ghosts.

A farm's value can be based primarily on the land, but what happens to land values when the property is used for solar? In his commentary for Farm Progress, Michael Lauher reviews two land sales for a look at the outcomes. "Professional farm managers have fielded questions about how a solar lease might affect farmland values — or even the option to lease. . . Two sales do not make a trend. But we can make interesting observations from them." Read his thoughts and advice here.

In 2023, Oreo cookie lovers accused its maker of putting less creamy filling in their beloved cookies. The snack maker denied the allegations. Scripps News reports a new cookie conflict: Chips Ahoy! is boldly changing its cookie recipes. Foodmaker Mondelēz International said different chocolate chips will be in the mix along with a higher-concentrate Madagascar vanilla extract. "An official for Chips Ahoy! said developers spent more than 5,000 hours in the kitchen and tested more than 60 recipes before getting the desired result."

A food pantry in rural Nebraska has a new hunger-fighting kitchen appliance -- a freezer that can hold an entire truckload of meat. "Simon House, a Columbus-based thrift store and food pantry, installed a walk-in freezer, with a capacity to store a truckload of frozen meat," reports Tim Trudell of the Columbus Telegram. It's the "first such freezer in rural America . . . . thousands of people can enjoy protein as part of their meals, said Lucy Lutjelusche, Simon House store manager and director."

Extreme weather and extremely high insurance rates may have to go together as insurers try to manage losses

At least 26 deadly tornadoes hit the U.S. in 2023.
(NOAA artist rendering, Unsplash)

After catastrophic losses from extreme weather and wildfires, insurance companies asked for significant increases in auto and home insurance rates, but state regulators told them no. Insurers like Allstate went to the "nuclear option," reports Jean Eaglesham of The Wall Street Journal. The company threatened to "stop renewing auto insurance for customers in three states that hadn't given in to its demands, which would have left those policyholders scrambling for coverage. . . . The states blinked. New Jersey approved auto rate increases for Allstate averaging 17%, and New York, a 15% hike."

Ten years ago, getting auto and home insurance was generally affordable. That's no longer the case for many Americans. Eaglesham writes, "Homeowners and drivers are facing sharply rising premiums, less coverage and fewer, if any, choices of insurer. In some places, the only options are bare-bones coverage or none at all. That can make homes worth less and harder to sell, and cars less affordable."

With insurers coming off of some of their worst years on record, along with the unpredictable costs of nature's calamities, insurance expenses are not likely to come down. Eaglesham reports, "The past decade of global natural catastrophes has been the costliest ever. Warmer temperatures have made storms worse and contributed to droughts that have elevated wildfire risk."

Barry Gilway, a 52-year veteran of the industry who retired in 2023 as head of Florida's Citizens Property Insurance, a state-created insurer of last resort that sells plans to people who can't get coverage elsewhere, told Eaglesham, "I have never seen the overall market this bad."

For consumers, shopping around, if possible, offers one panacea. "Nancy Piel, who lives Lake Forest, Ill., a Chicago suburb, contacted three agents last year after Nationwide increased the cost of insuring her two homes and 2011 minivan to $18,000," Eaglesham reports. "According to one agent, Chubb quoted even more: $29,000. She ended up insuring with Cincinnati Insurance for $10,500. The coverages were all very similar, she said."

States that have been deserted "by many big insurers are trying to tempt companies back by making it harder for policyholders to sue them," Eaglesham explains. "Despite some concessions from regulators, insurers are bracing for a tough future. Allstate Chief Executive Tom Wilson said that everywhere in the country is at some risk from increasingly severe weather. 'There is no place that's safe,' he said, 'and no place that's not going to be impacted.'"

As flood risk changes and homeowner's flood insurance premiums are recalculated, sticker shock is a sticking point

More accurate flood data has changed insurance rates.
(Photo by Kellly Sikkema, Unsplash)

As the Federal Emergency Management Agency recalculates national flood insurance premiums to include more accurate data, insuring property in places like Valley City, Illinois, which was recently underwater because of another flood from the Illinois River, may not be financially possible for some residents," reports Kery Murakami of Route Fifty. "After FEMA made changes to how it sets premiums for the 5 million policyholders in its National Flood Insurance Program, homeowners in Valley City, an area that's hit a major flood stage seven times since 2002, will be seeing a major jump in their premium to cover their damages. . . . Over roughly the next ten years, the 91 single-family homeowners in Pike County, where Valley City is located, will see their premiums rise six-fold from $699 to $4,933."

FEMA's new way of setting flood insurance premiums will "more accurately reflect how much flood risk properties are facing. But in many areas around the country, homeowners will see their premium payments multiply several times," Murakami writes. "Up until now, the premiums had not considered how often an area was expected to flood in the future and didn't consider many types of flooding, like that from heavy rainfall. That's led to an unfair situation in which many owners of properties at risk of flooding have been paying 'peanuts,' said Chad Berginnis, executive director for the Association of State Floodplain Managers. And indeed, Pike County's single-family homeowners had been paying among the lowest rates of any county in the country, according to FEMA data examined by Route Fifty."

Lawmakers say flood insurance only helps if homeowners can afford to buy it. "Some members of Congress from areas where premiums will jump are balking at the prospect of NFIP policyholders paying thousands more for federal flood insurance. Raising premiums so sharply, they say, could discourage people from buying insurance and leave them vulnerable if a flood damages their home," Murakami reports. Federal law caps premium increases at 18%. "Those who are not paying as much as FEMA's new risk assessment says they should be paying will be on what the agency calls a 'glide path' until they reach their new premium level. . . . The agency estimates that the percentage of people paying the amount FEMA believes they should be paying will rise from about a third to 90% over the next decade."

Using a more accurate picture of where flooding has or is likely to occur to set premium costs has supporters. "Some changes should be made, said Berginnis. . . . The new premiums, for example, will not take into account steps property owners take to reduce the threat of flood damage," Murakami writes. "Still, he said, the new flood insurance rates will 'send people the correct signals about flood risk.'

Rural volunteer firefighters in short supply; some states get involved in a usually local matter by offering incentives

Photo by Jen Theodore, Unsplash

Part of your job is to head into buildings that are on fire, billowing smoke, and incredibly HOT. Who wants that job?

"When firefighters show up to a blaze or medical emergency across much of the United States, they most likely are volunteers. It's also likely the department is understaffed, struggling to replace old equipment and facing uncertainty about its next generation of firefighters," reports Alex Brown of Stateline. "More than 80 percent of the nation's fire departments are made up entirely or mostly of volunteers, according to the National Fire Protection Association. . . . But participation has dwindled, from nearly 900,000 volunteers in 1984 to a low of 677,000 in 2020. Meanwhile, fire departments have responded to more than triple the number of calls over that same period."

"While some departments have brought on full-time paid firefighters to fill the gaps, [but] many communities, especially in rural areas, can't afford the cost of a professional fire service," Brown explains. Kimberly Quiros, chief of communications with the National Volunteer Fire Council, told Brown, "A lot of communities don't have the tax base and support to switch to a career staffing model."

Tania Daffron, an assistant chief of administration and planning in Bloomington, Indiana, told The Rural Blog that many communities have historically paid volunteers per "call or run -- the more runs, the greater the pay. . . . The stipends aren't necessarily new, but departments are trying to increase the amount to make it more worthwhile for the personnel to respond."

Brown reports, "Some states have begun their own response" to the firefighter shortage. "Lawmakers from both parties have advanced bills to provide financial benefits or tax breaks for volunteers or funding for new equipment in hopes of incentivizing firefighters to join up or stay in service." Mississippi encourages retention by creating an investment fund for each volunteer and putting in $500 for each year served. "Last year, New York lawmakers unanimously passed a measure enabling local municipalities to enact property tax breaks of up to 10% for volunteer firefighters and ambulance workers," Brown reports. Assemblyman Kevin Byrne told Brown. "It's hard to get young members, and it needs to be sustainable so they can justify going to a call at 3 in the morning and leaving their loved ones. . . . That's where the property-tax exemption is meaningful and makes it easier for people to justify the work."

Part of addressing the shortage needs to include the danger and emotional toll of rescue work. Daffron said volunteer firefighters experience the same stresses as their urban counterparts: "Burnout is real, along with PTSD from accumulated trauma. . . .We are horrible at asking for help for ourselves, as 'We are the help'." She said hiring and retaining any firefighter is a juggling act to offer enough incentives for people to complete all the training, preparation and mental stress. In sum, is volunteering as a firefighter worth the risk and time involved? When asked "Why would someone want that job?" Daffron replied, "It's an opportunity to serve their communities and is one of the best, most rewarding jobs in the world."

Gov't watchdog report: FEMA not doing enough to convince homeowners in high-risk areas to buy flood insurance

"The Federal Emergency Management Agency has been collecting a lot of information about flood risks across America, including the increased risk of flooding linked to climate change. But the agency has not effectively used that new knowledge to persuade more Americans to buy flood insurance, according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office," James Bruggers reports for Inside Climate News. "As a result, homeowners are at increasing risk of costly damage from floods, and the government is facing rising costs for disaster relief assistance, the report found. The report called on Congress to consider requiring FEMA to evaluate how the agency can use the 'comprehensive and up-to-date flood risk information' it has been collecting to determine which properties should be required to have flood insurance under the National Flood Insurance Program."

Many rural areas, particularly those near water and some mountainous areas, are at a higher risk for flooding. After disasters, those without flood insurance have a hard time rebuilding without flood insurance, especially in poorer areas.

Climate change, and deforestation from surface mining or wildfires, put mountainous areas at risk of expensive floods

Counties ranked in ranges of percentages of property at risk for flood damage
First Street Foundation map; click the image to enlarge it or click here for the interactive version.

Climate change and deforestation are putting hundreds of small communities at risk of expensive flood damage they can ill afford, according to new data from the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit organization that researches flood risk and housing. Climate change has driven rising sea levels and heavier rainstorms. Areas at the highest risk of flooding are on the coasts and in mountainous areas where surface mining or wildfires have removed the trees that can mitigate flooding.

"More than 4 million houses and small apartment buildings across the contiguous U.S. have substantial risk of expensive flood damage," Rebecca Hersher, Huo Jingnan and Sophia Schmidt report for NPR. "The cost of flood damage to homes nationwide will increase by more than 50% in the next 30 years, the First Street Foundation estimates."

The poor, who often have inadequate or no flood insurance, are the most vulnerable to flood damage, "and the federal government is ill-prepared to address the problem through the current federal flood insurance program," NPR reports. Central Appalachia, which shows significant risk of flooding on the First Street map above, has particularly high poverty rates.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency warns that the foundation's analysis is only an estimate and notes that First Street did not conduct their analysis about financial impacts of flooding with input about the agency's new flood insurance pricing plan. "For homeowners who are currently underpaying for flood insurance, FEMA says it plans to raise rates by up to 18 percent each year until the price is accurate, according to a January report by the Congressional Research Service. The agency will begin rolling out the new pricing in October," NPR reports. "As the cost of insurance goes up, many people who need flood insurance will likely be unable to afford it, leaving them to face lasting damage."

GAO report finds increase in repeatedly flooded properties, suggests changes to flood insurance program

Despite billions of dollars the federal government has spent over the past 30 years on flood mitigation projects, a new Government Accountability Office report says the number of properties damaged by floods more than one time has increased in the past decade, especially in Louisiana, Texas, and Florida.

It also notes that premiums for federal flood insurance "do not fully reflect flood hazards for insured property, leaving the federal government financially exposed to this risk," Bill Lucia reports for Route Fifty. The report says reducing the flood risk of insured properties and/or increasing premiums will mitigate the program's financial shortfalls, but says "structural reforms" to premium rates will also be necessary.

The flood-insurance program has been struggling for years, but because of big spikes in claims paid due to disasters, not a gradual increase. The Federal Emergency Management Agency' "has borrowed about $36 billion from the Treasury to pay claims during disasters over the past 15 years or so. Congress cancelled $16 billion of this 'debt' in 2017, but about $20 billion remains outstanding," Lucia reports.

The report dovetails with recently released scientific research showing that far more U.S. properties are at substantial risk of flooding than FEMA maps indicate, since FEMA maps don't factor in climate change and don't use the most recent data available.

Nearly 70% more U.S. properties at high risk of flooding than federal government estimates; see county-level data

New York Times maps; click here for an interactive, county-level map.

Nearly 6 million more U.S. properties face a substantial risk of flooding than federal data indicates, according to new peer-reviewed scientific research. That could have big repercussions for rural residents who live near waterways.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, which assesses properties' flood risk for the government via the National Flood Insurance Program, shows that 8.7 million properties are at a high risk of flooding. But the new research shows that 14.6 million properties face such risk. "The discrepancy exists, the group says, because it uses more up-to-date climate data, analyzes precipitation as a stand-alone risk, and includes areas FEMA has not," Amy Harder and Maema Ahmed report for Axios. Click here for interactive content from Axios, including ranked states, counties and areas at risk.

Residents of high-risk areas are required to buy federal flood insurance. "When FEMA does issue updated maps, politicians and homeowners often object, hoping to avoid higher federal flood insurance rates," The New York Times reports. Poor, rural residents lose out either way: increased insurance payouts could price them out of their communities, but without insurance, they could be left without help and unable to afford repairs when flooding hits, as happened in Florida after Hurricane Michael.

Recent studies found that the federal government needs to spend up to $12 billion to improve its flood maps. In the meantime, First Street is developing a free online database called Flood Factor aimed at helping real estate agents and prospective buyers get a more realistic idea of a property's flood risk.

First Street is a non-profit research and tech firm that developed its flood model with researchers and hydrologists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Columbia University and more.

Investigation: several financial tools meant to ensure cleanup of abandoned coal mines near insolvency

As more and more coal companies go bankrupt, the question of abandoned mine cleanup becomes more important. A 1977 federal law required mining companies to set aside money to pay for reclaiming mines, but that system is in jeopardy.

An investigation by climate scientist website DeSmog "found that several key financial instruments meant to guarantee environmental cleanup have been pushed to the brink of insolvency, potentially leaving taxpayers on the hook for hundreds of millions — if not billions — of dollars in reclamation costs," Mark Olalde reports.

FEMA flood maps need updating, but increased payouts could price low-income rural residents out of some areas

Stream miles not assessed in Federal Emergency Management Agency flood maps, by county (FEMA map; click on it to enlarge)

"The federal government must spend up to $12 billion to improve the nation’s flood maps and should do more to steer development out of flood-prone areas, according to two recent studies that warn about increasing flood damage from climate change," Thomas Frank reports for Energy & Environment News.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Flood Insurance Program creates and maintains maps meant to show which areas are prone to flooding, and also provides more than 96 percent of flood insurance nationwide. The maps help communities plan key infrastructure and shape public and private land use. They also inform insurance coverage: insurers require people who live in high-risk areas to buy flood insurance, Frank reports. Since homes in low-risk areas are not required to buy flood insurance, residents in increasingly flood-prone areas—many poor and rural—can't afford to rebuild after their homes are damaged or destroyed.

The maps are badly out of date, according to a recent study by the R Street Institute, a free-market think tank. One big reason: FEMA does not factor in global warming, which brings with it rising sea levels and increasingly frequent and powerful hurricanes, Frank reports.

The maps are incomplete, too, according to a recent report from the Association of State Floodplain Managers. Only a third of the nation's rivers and streams—1.1 million miles—and 46% of the nation's shoreline have flood-hazard information available. Mapping the remaining 2.3 million miles, most of which are in rural areas, and updating the current maps could cost anywhere from $3.2 billion to $11.8 billion. Maintaining and updating the maps would cost an estimated $107 million to $480 million annually, the report says.

The expense is worth it, according to the ASFM report. Since the NFIP was created in 1969, the nation has spent $10.6 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars on flood hazard mapping, preventing an estimated $22 billion in flood damages. Annual flood damages are increasing: they averaged $4 billion in the 1980's, but about $17 billion between 2010 and 2018 (that figure is somewhat skewed by the 2017 hurricane season, which had three of the top five costliest hurricanes on record).

The damages are likely under-reported, and don't include indirect losses from business closures, lost tax revenue, and the public health and mental health costs that often hit socially vulnerable communities harder, the report says.

There's another issue: NFIP must increasingly pay out for flood damages, so the program's costs are increasing, and FEMA may make it more like a private insurer, Jie Jenny Zou reports for Vox. That could spike insurance premiums and make it unaffordable for many to live in flood-prone areas.

Rural, lower-income residents in flood-prone areas could be in a peculiar bind: If FEMA updates flood maps to reflect the true risk, then such residents would be more likely to have flood insurance. But if NFIP rates become too high, they might not be able to afford to live there in the first place.

Floods made 2019 crop insurance payout highest in history; still-saturated soils in Midwest threaten more this year

"Flood-related federal crop insurance payouts for the 2019 growing season total more than $6.4 billion so far — the costliest on record," Ryan McCrimmon reports for Politico's Morning Agriculture. "Most of those indemnities are tied to the spring and summer floods across states like North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and Illinois, according to an analysis of USDA data by Steve Bowen, a meteorologist and head of catastrophe insight at Aon, an insurance company."

Bowen told Politico, “Given the record rainfall that occurred and the multiple ‘waves’ of flooding that affected areas across the Mississippi, Missouri, and Arkansas River basins, the heightened impacts are not overly surprising. Last year was a very tough year for farmers, and there are concerns that already saturated soils across the Plains and Midwest may set the stage for more possible flooding in 2020.”

Department of Agriculture economists predicted last year that climate change will fuel bigger and more frequent storms, which will increase the price of crop insurance by 4% to 22%. Inside Climate News reported in 2018 that drought, partly driven by climate change, was driving up crop-insurance payouts and accounted for almost half the payouts from 2000 to 2016. Floods were second.

McCrimmon notes that the crop-insurance program "is overseen by USDA and carried out by private companies. Taxpayers cover companies’ costs of administering the program and subsidize, on average, 60 percent of farmers’ premiums; growers pay the other 40 percent."

Environmental experts warn House lawmakers that climate change could overwhelm flood insurance program

Environmental experts warned House lawmakers this week that the increasing risk of flooding due to climate change could overwhelm the National Flood Insurance Program.

"The hearing, hosted by the Financial Services Subcommittee on National Security, International Development and Monetary Policy, focused on the macroeconomic effects from climate change and the monetary risks associated with it," James Jarvis reports for The Hill. "The NFIP covers more than 5 million flood insurance policies and collects approximately $4.75 billion in premiums, fees and surcharges each year."

Andy Karsner, who was assistant energy secretary for efficiency and renewables under George W. Bush, said flooding will continue to be a major risk, and "It is imperative for [insurance companies] to develop new tools of risk management because they are operating on very old model inputs and ancient legacy flood maps."

The repeated major hurricanes in 2017 and 2018 bled the program dry, leading to billions in losses. The disaster aid bill included provisions to help the NFIP pay off the claims, Jarvis reports.

Marshall Burke, an assistant professor of earth science at Stanford University, said the hurricanes will continue to be a problem: "We don’t have clear evidence that there will be more or less of them — but we know they will be more powerful and move more slowly. That will dramatically increase the likelihood of coastal flooding."

The uptick in hurricane has led some lawmakers to explore the idea of expanding the role of private insurers in the NFIP. That way they could share the risk and ensure the availability of flood insurance. "But it is unclear whether letting private insurance companies take on more risk will effectively help mitigate the problem," Jarvis reports.

Researcher says relocating towns away from disaster-prone areas may be better than rebuilding after storms

How do you rebuild after a weather-related disaster? Maybe you shouldn't: "A paper published Thursday in the journal Science makes a case that, sometimes, retreating from nature instead of fighting it can actually open up new opportunities for communities," Kendra Pierre-Louis reports for The New York Times.

Though the rhetoric tends to focus on building back better, "You're in a fight with the ocean. You're fighting to hold the ocean in place. Maybe that's not the battle we want to pick," said A.R. Siders, an assistant professor at the University of Delaware and lead author of the paper.

"Siders pointed to Soldiers Grove, Wis., a town of about 500 that, after one too many floods, moved itself out of the flood plain," Pierre-Louis reports. "The community took that challenge and turned it into opportunity, reorienting the business district such that it could take advantage of highway traffic and powering it entirely with solar energy — and they did this in the 1970s."

Staying in place after a disaster can not only make residents a target for later disasters, but it's costly for the government to provide aid and for insurance companies to pay out, as illustrated by Dauphin Island, Alabama, which Gilbert Gaul of YaleEnvironment360 called "the unluckiest island in America." The island has been hit by more than a dozen big storms in recent decades, but residents of the beach resort keep rebuilding.

Some communities do shrink after disasters. The population of New Orleans is only 85% of its pre-Katrina population, for example. But the retreats are haphazard, and most of the people who leave have money and options, meaning it's generally the poorest who stay. "The new paper lays out ways communities could practice managed retreats that would address their broader needs," Pierre-Louis reports. "Lack of access to reliable climate-hazard maps, for example, makes it difficult to make informed choices about risk. Such maps must be improved and updated regularly, the paper said."

For those who choose to—or must—stay, post-disaster recovery is often hampered by bureaucracy, Andrea Noble reports for Route Fifty. Though Hurricane Michael hit the Florida panhandle in October 2018, the Federal Emergency Management Agency didn't begin delivering temporary housing units to the area until late January, and people were still living in tents this spring.