Wheat farmers in Kansas, current hotspot for drought in U.S., are killing their crops and filing crop-insurance claims

Drought Monitor maps from the University of Nebraska are available here.

Wheat farmers in Kansas, the main source of U.S. grain for bread, are "abandoning their crops" because of "severe drought and damaging cold," reports Tom Polansek of Reuters. "They are intentionally spraying wheat fields with crop-killing chemicals and claiming insurance payouts more than normal, betting the grain is not worth harvesting. . . . Other growers are turning over dismal-looking fields to cattle for grazing."

The Department of Agriculture said May 12 that U.S. winter-wheat farmers were planning to abandon 33% of their planted acres, the most since World War I. The USDA estimate for Kansas abandonmemt was only 19%, "up from 10% last year and 4% in 2021," Reuters reports, "but farmers, grain traders and representatives of major food companies who traversed the state on an annual crop tour last week warn of an even greater percentage of unharvested acres. Crop conditions point toward an outcome similar to 1989, when farmers did not harvest 28% of the wheat they planted, said Justin Gilpin, chief executive of the Kansas Wheat Commission.

"Parts of Oklahoma are suffering too. In six northern counties, an estimated 65% to 70% of the crop will not be harvested, said Mike Schulte, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission. While farmers get some financial protection from insurance, local businesses are at risk when acres are abandoned, as fewer crews of harvesters come through the region, where they would normally spend money at diners and hotels, Schulte said."

The Economist asks: Do farm subsidies sustain the decline of rural America, by encouraging larger and larger farms?

Nearly a decade of high crop prices and record farm subsidies from taxpayers isn't necessarily good news for rural America, says The Economist, a London-based global magazine that still calls itself a newspaper.

"Despite all this cash, rural America is in deep decline," says The Economist, which generally doesn't name its reporter/writers. "Two-thirds of rural counties lost population from 2010 to 2020, and the total population of rural America fell for the first time in history. The counties that grew were mostly not farming ones but pretty places where people go to retire, near mountains or the ocean, or those with lots of oil. The Midwestern areas which grow most of America’s food are shrinking fastest."

The population is shrinking, but the farms are not. As they are sold or merged into larger operations driven by mechanization, fewer people are needed to tend them. "Just 6 percent of jobs in rural areas are directly linked to farming, and "Most farms, even small ones, 'are highly capitalized agribusinesses growing one or two commodity crops and employing very few people'," says Anne Schechinger, an agricultural economist for the Environmental Working Group," a research-and-lobbying group that dislikes farm subsidies.

"Subsidies, largely in the form of crop insurance, help to ensure the food supply continues, and protect farmers from going bust during downturns," The Economist notes. " But they also determine what America farms—incentivizing farmers to grow vast amounts of soybeans and corn, as well as wheat, which is mostly exported. . . . Fresh fruit and vegetables, which Americans ought to eat more of, are more expensive to grow, and require more labor, but farmers receive almost no subsidies for them."

As farmers get wealthier, "The communities they live in are not," the Economist says, using as its object example North Dakota wheat farmer Phillip Volk, who "says that when he went to school, there were 40 children on his school bus. Today his youngest son goes on the bus with fewer than 10 classmates. His eldest son is likely to take over the farm, but future children may have to go to a boarding school. It is harder to find people to serve as voluntary officials on the school board and county government. Many young people end up moving to places where the job opportunities are more exciting, if not necessarily more profitable. Over half of the churches that used to serve the community have closed. . . . Helping out farmers is politically popular, not least because rural communities are over-represented in Congress. Yet the subsidies may in fact be sustaining the decline of rural America."

War in Ukraine threatens worldwide food shortage, rise in social and political upheaval; millions more could go hungry

"The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to global energy markets. Now the planet is facing a deeper crisis: a shortage of food," reports Jack Nicas of The New York Times. The greatest upheaval since World War II "is compounded by major challenges that were already increasing prices and squeezing supplies, including the pandemic, shipping constraints, high energy costs and recent droughts, floods and fires," That could bring more global hunger and social/political upheaval.

"A crucial portion of the world’s wheat, corn and barley is trapped in Russia and Ukraine because of the war, while an even larger portion of the world’s fertilizers is stuck in Russia and Belarus," Nicas reports. "The result is that global food and fertilizer prices are soaring. Since the invasion last month, wheat prices have increased by 21 percent, barley by 33% and some fertilizers by 40%. Ukrainian farms are about to miss critical planting and harvesting seasons. European fertilizer plants are significantly cutting production because of high energy prices. Farmers from Brazil to Texas are cutting back on fertilizer, threatening the size of the next harvests."

The smaller supply of basic commodities will push grocery bills up even higher, and could push food-insecure people over the edge to outright hunger, Nicas writes. In the U.S., where grocery prices were up 8.6% in February over the year before and most pandemic assistance programs have ended, more and more Americans are turning to food banks, Laura Reiley reports for The Washington Post.

"Food-bank officials are reporting growing lines at their distribution centers nationwide. Rates of reported hunger have been increasing since early August, when nearly 8% of respondents said they 'sometimes' or 'often' did not have enough to eat, according to data from the Census Household Pulse Survey," Reiley reports. "In early February, 10% of those polled said their household sometimes doesn’t have enough to eat. That uptick is more significant for households with children, rising to 13%, although off from pandemic peaks." Also in February, 35% of U.S. adults in households with children said they struggled to cover their bills. (On Friday, the U.S. Conference of Mayors pleaded with Congress to extend federal pandemic food aid, currently set to expire in July.)

Worldwide, "After remaining mostly flat for five years, hunger rose by about 18% during the pandemic to between 720 million and 811 million people. Earlier this month, the United Nations said that the war’s impact on the global food market alone could cause an additional 7.6 million to 13.1 million people to go hungry," Nicas reports. "The World Food Program’s costs have already increased by $71 million a month, enough to cut daily rations for 3.8 million people."

If the war ended very soon, Ukraine's agricultural exports would still likely fall by a fifth from 2021, Alistair MacDonald reports for The Wall Street Journal. Damaged land, equipment and infrastructure, along with a scattered populace, will make it difficult for farmers to get back to work right away. But that's the best-case scenario, a Ukrainian agriculture official told MacDonald; the reality will probably be far worse.

Russian invasion of Ukraine sends wheat and crude oil prices soaring, disrupts trade; impact on fertilizer unclear

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted regional export shipments, sent grain futures and crude-oil prices soaring, and may trigger higher fertilizer prices.

Russia and Ukraine together account for a third of global wheat exports, a fifth of corn exports and more than three-quarters of sunflower oil, Keith Good reports for the University of Illinois' Farm Policy News. Russia is also a major exporter of fertilizer components nitrogen, phosphorus and potash.

Though sanctions against Russia haven't banned food or agricultural exports, "that hasn’t stopped global grain prices from soaring," Politico reports. "Wheat futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade, the global benchmark, surged 6 percent earlier this week, to about $9.34 a bushel, the highest in nine years. Wheat futures are up 10 percent since the start of the year."

Even without trade sanctions, farm exports from those countries have slowed to a trickle, since Russia and Ukraine have suspended most commercial railways and ports near the conflict, Good reports. And many ships will be reluctant to trade there for fear of getting caught in the conflict.

"It is not clear if the West would hit Russia's fertilizer industry with sanctions, but it is possible. Ukraine's neighbor Belarus is the world's second-largest exporter of potash fertilizer and was hit with sanctions from Europe and the U.S. in 2021," Chris Clayton reports for Progressive Farmer/DTN. "Because of ethanol and biodiesel, crop prices are also influenced by swings in energy prices. Crude oil prices have surged to their highest levels in seven years as Russian troops threaten Ukraine. The main concern is Russia may hold back oil production as a lever against any punitive response from the West."

Ukraine conflict raises grain, energy prices; fertilizer next?

Russia's recognition of two separatist Ukraine provinces as independent countries, and its military move into the region, could presage a full-scale war that is already affecting world markets for grain, energy and fertilizer.

"With the two countries accounting for around 29 percent of global wheat exports, 19% of world corn supplies, and 80% of world sunflower-oil exports, traders worried that any military engagement could impact crop movement and trigger a mass scramble by importers to replace supplies from the Black Sea region," report Naveen Thukral and Gavin Maguire of Reuters, "Chicago wheat futures jumped more than 2% on Tuesday, corn hit a seven-month high and soybeans also gained ground." 

Reuters quoted an unnamed trader as saying that ships are avoiding the Black Sea, but Bloomberg reported that "Cargoes are flowing freely and there's no indication of significant disruptions."

Fertilizer prices, already at record highs and threatening farmers' profit margins, may increase even more because Russia is a major exporter of fertilizer. "If Russia invades Ukraine, and the U.S. and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries retaliate with trade sanctions, that could cause shortages and drive up prices," Andrew Ozaki reports for Omaha's KETV.

The Associated Press reports that Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Saturday that "American wheat farmers will boost production and prevent supply chain problems in the event that a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine chokes off agricultural exports from the global grains powerhouse."

USDA surveys find more big farmers embrace cover crops

Just over half of the nation's largest farms said they planted cover crops in 2017, showing increased acceptance of the practice's benefits for soil health and water retention, according to a newly released Agriculture Department survey of 400 producers with production worth at least $500,000 a year (putting them in the top 7.4 percent of farms). Here are some takeaways from the poll:

• In 2017, farmers reported planting 15.4 million acres of cover crops, a 50% increase from 2012.
• 81% of growers with cover crops said the practice improved soil health and crop yields. One in seven said it improved soil health but not crop yields.
• 48% of farmers polled said they abandoned cover crops in the past or have never planted them before.
• Field-level surveys of crop fields found that expanded adoption of cover crops is highest on fields that include corn silage in the rotation and lowest on fields that include wheat.
• In 2018, about one-third of the acreage planted with a cover crop received a financial assistance payment from either federal, state, or other programs that support cover-crop planting.
• Most of the farmers who planted cover crops were fairly new to the practice. Half the farms with cover crops reported doing so for five years or less, and on 25% or less of their land. Only one-fourth of the growers who plant cover crops had done so for more than 10 years.

Demand from China boosts American farm economy

Financial Times graphs

Donald Trump’s trade war with China made farmers more dependent on government payments, "but China is now at the heart of a reversal in farmers’ fortunes, as booming exports and soaring food prices fuel a recovery in the U.S. agricultural economy," Aime Williams reports for the Financial Times.

"The U.S. is on course to ship a record $37.2 billion worth of farm goods to China this year, led by sales of soybeans, corn, tree nuts, beef, wheat and poultry, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast." That's 23 percent of total U.S. agricultural exports, which USDA estimates will be $164 billion. More Chinese demand, combined with low stocks of corn and soybeans caused by drought in Brazil, "have driven a surge in global food prices, providing a further boost for American farmers."

China imported 9.6 million tons of soybeans in May, a 29% increase from April's 7.4 million tons, Reuters reports.

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Wheat, corn and soybean prices are the highest since 2013; grocery prices could go up

A crop rally in the U.S. is making essential food commodities dramatically more expensive, and the costs could soon spill over onto grocery store shelves," reportKim Chipman and Megan Durisin  of Bloomberg. "Wheat, corn and soybeans, the backbone of much of the world’s diet, are all surging to highs not seen since 2013 after gains last week had some analysts warning that a speculative bubble was forming."

Bad weather is the biggest reason: rain in Argentina is hurting the soy harvest, and dryness is hurting wheat and corn crops in Canada, France and the U.S. And many scientists predict drought in the American Farm Belt this summer. "Meanwhile, China is gobbling up the world’s grain supplies and is set to import the most corn ever as it expands its massive hog herd," Chipman and Durisin report. "Rumors are swirling that the Asian nation is working on 1 million metric tons of new corn purchases."

Since staple crops are a big factor in consumer food prices, the rally has prompted fears of food price inflation. "Pricey crops are also helping to drive even broader gains across the commodities complex, with metals such as palladium and copper rallying on a comeback in industrial operations around the world," Chipman and Durisin report. "Still, soybean, wheat and corn futures in Chicago are all trading in overbought territory with their 14-day relative strength indexes above 70, indicating that prices may have risen too far, too fast. Values declined in China, signaling a possible calming of shortage fears as summer crop plantings progress and hefty purchases of foreign supplies continue to arrive at ports."

China's 2020 Phase One agriculture purchases well below target, but back up to 2017 levels

In 2020, China purchased just 58 percent of the U.S. exports promised in the Trump administration's Phase One trade deal. That includes only $23.6 billion of agricultural products, compared with an expected $36.6 billion, according to an extensive round-up by Keith Good at the University of Illinois' Farm Policy News. Some of the highlights:

• It's unclear whether the Biden administration will seek to enforce the trade deal or negotiate a new one. 
• China's soybean imports from the U.S. in 2020 rose by 52.8% from 2019. That includes 25.89 million tonnes of oilseed from the U.S., up from 16.94 million tonnes in 2019.
• China was the world's top soybean buyer in 2020 and the U.S. was its second-largest supplier.
• Soybean import levels improved as China's pig herds grew after being decimated by African swine fever in 2018 and 2019.
• Two new strains of African swine fever could hurt China's pig herds again though. The new strains don't kill pigs, but they cause a chronic condition that reduces the number of healthy piglets born.
• China's grain imports rose to record highs in 2020.
• China imported a record 11.3 million tonnes of corn in 2020, with 2.25 million tonnes of that in December alone.
• China imported a record 8.38 million tonnes of wheat in 2020, just short of a quota of 9.64 million tonnes. 

Farmers pessimistic about the present but optimistic about the future as Trump administration tees up for convention

Farmers had hoped 2020 would help them make up for two bad seasons (due to the trade war with China and record wet weather), but amid forecasts of a bumper crop of soybeans and corn in most of the Midwest, the situation has grown worse for many farmers, since prices remain low, Kirk Maltais reports for The Wall Street Journal.

Compared to their "drought-stricken and wind-blown Iowa counterparts," for example, Illinois producers are well off, but the University of Illinois says they will get small returns on soybeans and take small losses on corn— and only if more U.S. Department of Agriculture relief payments arrive, Dan Looker reports for Successful Farming.

The Trump administration will likely tout its support for farmers and rural America during the Republican National Convention this week. Trump "can point to his new trade pact with Canada and Mexico that went into force last month and included some modest wins for dairy producers, wheat growers and other ag sectors, as well as his dismantling of the Obama administration’s waters-of-the-U.S. rule and the unprecedented bailout payments he’s issued to farmers," Ryan McCrimmon reports for Politico's Weekly Agriculture.

However, McCrimmon notes, Trump's "tariff fights and ethanol policies have been painful for many farmers and manufacturers, and rural communities have been hit hard by the pandemic and recession."

Farmer attitudes nationwide are a mixed bag. According to the latest DTN/The Progressive Farmer Farmer Agriculture Confidence Index, "farmers have a record-low attitude about their current plight but show strong optimism for the future," Greg Horstmeier reports. "The latest survey, conducted Aug. 6-14, also shows some potential waning in support for the Trump administration."

USDA releases details for pandemic-related aid to farmers

On Tuesday the U.S. Department of Agriculture released long-awaited details about its $16 billion direct payment program for farmers and ranchers struggling economically amid the pandemic. Farmers and ranchers can start applying for aid Tuesday, May 26; USDA says checks will begin going out as soon as a week later.

"USDA maintained the payment limit of $250,000 per farmer, but the initial $125,000-per-commodity cap was lifted following bipartisan backlash from Congress. Corporations and other entities can get up to $750,000 based on the number of shareholders who spend at least 400 hours on farm labor or management," Ryan McCrimmon reports for Politico's Morning Agriculture. "Because of high demand for aid and a limited pot of money (which Secretary Sonny Perdue, lawmakers and industry groups virtually all agree is too little), the department will send producers 80 percent of their payment and distribute the rest later if the funds haven’t been depleted."

Some crops and livestock aren't eligible for aid because their prices didn't drop by at least 5% since January, including some kinds of wheat, rice and peanuts, older sheep and egg-laying hens, and more. "But the department left the door open to 'reconsider' if those producers can demonstrate their market damage, except for two crops: hemp and tobacco," McCrimmon reports.

Ag roundup: Farmers' hopes dip as pandemic roils markets

Here's a roundup of how the covid-19 pandemic is affecting the agriculture sector.

Farmers' hopes for a good year pushed Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer to a record high in February, but pandemic fears caused the barometer to plunge in March. The barometer is based on monthly surveys of 400 U.S. farmers.

"Price forecasts for most agricultural products are bleak. In the past month, dairy prices have dropped 26-36%, corn futures have dropped by 14%, soybean futures are down 8% and cotton futures have plummeted 31%," Feed & Grain reports. "Hog futures are down by 31%. A surge in demand for beef emptied grocery store meat aisles, but there is no lack of supply. Despite a rise in retail prices in some areas, the prices paid to cattle ranchers have fallen 25%."

Spot and future prices are spiking for some staples like wheat and rice, the University of Illinois' Farm Policy News reports. That's likely to stabilize; the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects global wheat and rice reserves to be an an all-time high. 

Some groceries are getting more expensive. Egg prices at the supermarket have tripled in the past month, The Wall Street Journal reports.

On the bright side, lower energy prices mean fertilizer prices are down, David Widmar reports for Successful Farming.

Farmers are panic-buying animal feed, fearing that feed mills will close or trucks might be delayed, Bloomberg Businessweek reports.

A Tyson Foods meatpacking plant in southeastern Iowa shut down Monday after more than two dozen workers got sick with covid-19, Chuck Abbott reports for the Food & Environment Reporting Network. Others could shutter, affecting rural jobs.

Quick hits: How Biden and Sanders did in rural areas on Super Tuesday; busted oil town turns to arts and culture

Here's a roundup of stories with rural resonance; if you do or see similar work that should be shared on The Rural Blog, email us at heather.chapman@uky.edu.

Kraft Foods Group Inc. and Mondelez Global LLC may pay $16 million to settle regulatory allegations that they manipulated the market for wheat futures. Read more here.

Sen. Bernie Sanders got much less of the rural vote on Tuesday than he did in 2016, while Joe Biden received outsized support from rural areas, The Daily Yonder reports. Read more here.

A webinar discussed challenges rural school districts face in helping students access high-speed internet. Read more or listen to the recording here.

A busted oil-boom town in Arkansas is making a comeback by leaning on art and culture. Read more here.

The 2020 Young Farmers and Ranchers Conference has been canceled because of the coronavirus. Read more here.

China to allow U.S. to apply for agriculture tariff waivers

China announced Tuesday that, starting March 2, it will allow importers to apply for tariff exemptions on 696 American goods, the third round of such exemptions China has offered in the wake of the Phase 1 trade deal that took effect on Feb. 14., Stella Qiu and Se Young Lee report for Reuters.

"U.S. goods eligible for tariff exemptions include key agricultural and energy products such as pork, beef, soybeans, liquefied natural gas and crude oil, which were subject to extra tariffs imposed during the escalation of the bilateral trade dispute," Qiu and Lee report. "Other products subject to exemption on additional tariffs imposed include denatured ethanol and wheat, corn and sorghum. Some medical devices and metals including copper ore and concentrates, copper scrap and aluminum scrap are also subject to exemption."

The announcement emphasized that exemptions will be granted based on market conditions and commercial considerations, Qiu and Lee report. Though Chinese President Xi Jinping assured President Trump during a recent call that China will meet its Phase 1 purchasing targets, the caveat allows China more latitude in what it buys from the U.S., especially since China has already purchased a large amount of soybeans from Brazil. The coronavirus epidemic may also make it difficult for China to meet its purchasing targets.

Quick hits: Trump biofuel policy not as favorable to ethanol as he indicated; Dean Foods vs. plant-based products

Politico's Morning Agriculture has three items of particular interest today:

The Dakotas are expecting about a foot of snow starting tomorrow, and Minnesota and Nebraska could get some as well. The cold weather and snow could kill some crops that are still maturing or being harvested. Corn, wheat and other crops are particularly vulnerable to such weather because they were planted late, owing to the record wet weather this spring, Ryan McCrimmon notes.

Dean Foods, one of the largest dairy processors in the U.S., is leaving the International Dairy Foods Association, "faulting the industry group for not taking a firm stance against plant-based products using traditional dairy terms like 'milk' or 'butter' in their labeling, a Dean Foods spokesperson told MA," McCrimmon reports. "Dean Foods said it will divert its advocacy efforts to focus on the product labeling fight, which the company called 'one of our core priorities.'"

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler sought to clarify the administration's recently announced biofuels policy. "Donald Trump left some in the oil and agriculture industries scratching their heads when he proclaimed on Monday that the EPA will direct refiners to blend 16 billion gallons of ethanol in 2020," McCrimmon reports. "Wheeler has since offered some clarification during an interview on a North Dakota radio station: The agency will set the mandate at 15 billion gallons after taking into account its blending exemptions for small refiners."

USDA says prevented planting set to hit a record high this year because of wet weather; corn futures plummet

Farmers were unable to plant a record 19 million acres because of rain and flooding earlier this year, according to the Farm Service Agency's first estimate of 2019 prevented planting, released Monday.

That tallies up to about 11.2 million acres of corn, 4.35 million acres of soybeans, and 2.2 million acres of wheat, the Department of Agriculture agency said that. By comparison, prevented planting last year was about 2 million acres, Ryan McCrimmon reports for Politico's "Morning Agriculture."

"USDA also released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates — which immediately sent corn futures prices lower. The department surprised traders by raising its forecast for corn production to 13.9 billion bushels and corn yields to 169.5 bushels per acre. Meanwhile, it lowered its estimate of 2019-20 corn exports by 100 million bushels," McCrimmon reports. "The plummet in corn prices was the steepest drop in six years, and it sent ripples through the commodity markets . . . Some market watchers saw the higher-than-expected corn estimates as proof that farmers were planting more crops than they normally would, given the poor weather conditions, in order to get a bigger paycheck under USDA’s trade relief program."

Poultry shares increased because of the prospect of cheaper animal feed, but stocks for farming equipment makers went down, as traders anticipated lower farm income and fewer purchases of farming machinery. McCrimmon reports.

Corn futures hit five-year high amid fears about hot weather

Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade hit a five-year high of $4.64¾ per bushel Monday as hot, dry weather and the forecast for more of it, following heavy spring rains that delayed planting, added to concern about supply, Gus Trompiz reports for Reuters.

"Corn gave up some of its gains, however, as forecasts also predicted some rain in the Midwest this week and traders awaited a weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture crop report for an update on corn conditions," Reuters reported as the December futures price dropped to $4.61. "Wheat edged to a two-week high, drawing support from corn as well as downward revisions to world wheat supply in monthly USDA estimates published last week. Soybeans slipped lower after touching a one-year high as traders weighed up risks for late-planted U.S. soybeans in the face of hot weather."

Trompiz writes, "After initially being seen as beneficial in drying out waterlogged fields and boosting plant growth, a recent warm, dry spell has fuelled worries that crops could be damaged during crucial pollination stages. The USDA will issue its weekly crop progress report after Monday's market close in Chicago. Traders largely shrugged off the USDA's forecast for U.S.corn production in its monthly supply and demand report on July 11, holding out for a follow-up survey of plantings by the agency after its previous acreage estimates were viewed as too high for corn and too low for soybeans."

Trump announces $16 billion trade-aid package for farmers

President Trump announced yesterday a $16 billion aid package aimed at helping farmers hurt by his trade war with China. "Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said $14.5 billion of the $16 billion would be paid out directly to producers, who have been hit hard by Trump’s tariff showdowns with China, Mexico and other countries," The Washington Post reports.

The first payments to farmers will come in July or August. In addition to the $14.5 billion paid to producers of row crops, fruits, vegetables, nuts, pork and dairy, Perdue said the government will spend $1.4 billion to buy and donate crops to food banks and schools, and will award $100 million in grants to develop new markets overseas, Chuck Abbott reports for Successful Farming.

"The three-prong structure is similar in design and name to the 2018 Trump bailout payments that were supposed to be a one-time boost. That package has paid $10 billion, mostly in cash to producers," Abbott reports. "The new package covers three dozen commodities compared with the nine earmarked for aid in 2018. For this year, the USDA says it will calculate trade war damage per county and divide the money among farmers based on how many acres of the eligible crops are planted this year. The USDA will announce the payment rates later."

"The relief plan aims to avoid problems that arose in the first aid package, when soybeans received what many believed was a disproportionate amount of the money, while corn received only a penny a bushel. Other producers were shut out entirely from relief payments," the Post reports.

The payment rate will be the same for all farmers regardless of what they plant. However, they will have to plant to receive it, Abbott reports. Midwestern farmers are anxious on that account since flooding has delayed planting, and some may not be able to plant at all this year. Farm groups have urged the USDA to base payments on historical production so the current weather won't hurt this year's trade aid payout. Last year, rates were based partly on the average yield of a crop in a county.

American farmers have been struggling for years with falling income and commodity prices. That left many with few financial reserves to cope with the trade war; an American Farm Bureau Federation data analysis shows that Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies rose from March 2017 to March 2018, especially in the Midwest, the Post reports.

"Randy Spronk, a hog farmer and past president of the National Pork Producers Council who attended the president’s Thursday meeting with farmers, said farmers realized the potential payouts will not make up for the losses due to a protracted trade war with China," the Post reports.

"Will it cover the losses? No. But it makes enough of a difference to keep a lot of farmers so they can survive," Spronk told the Post. Trump said the money will come from "the billions of dollars the Treasury takes in" from China, but the Post notes that "China does not pay tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese imports. Importers pay those tariffs, and some of them pass on the cost to U.S. consumers."

EPA ordered to decide whether to ban chlorpyrifos for good

A federal appeals court has ordered the Environmental Protection Agency to make a final decision within 90 days on whether it will ban a popular pesticide linked to developmental disorders in children. Last year the Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit "ordered the EPA to remove chlorpyrifos from use within 60 days of an August ruling, ending what would have been a decade-long fight by health advocates to ban the substance," Miranda Green reports for The Hill. "However, the Trump administration promptly appealed that ruling, and the court agreed to rehear the case." It ruled Friday.

Chlorpyrifos was first developed in World War II for use in chemical warfare, but has been used for years on crops such as strawberries, oranges, corn and wheat. The EPA banned it for residential use in 2001 and proposed a total ban during President Obama's tenure, but Scott Pruitt, President Trump's first EPA administrator, reversed that order. Pruitt wrote that the science linking chlorpyrifos to neurological effects in children was "unresolved" and that further study was necessary, Green reports.

In the weeks leading up to Pruitt's decision, he secretly promised farm lobbies that he was listening to their concerns, according to internal documents obtained by The New York Times. Pesticide makers also lobbied Interior Secretary David Bernhardt, then the deputy secretary, to block a 2017 study that could have led to tighter restrictions on two pesticides. The Fish and Wildlife Service study found that chlorpyrifos and malathion were so toxic that they threatened the existence of more than 1,200 endangered species.

Analysis: NAFTA replacement would produce slight net positive for U.S. economy; several ag sectors would benefit

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement would produce a slight net positive for the U.S. economy, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission's analysis. "The report found that the agreement would increase gross domestic product by 0.35 percent after inflation, or $68.2 billion, and create 175,700 jobs — fewer than the economy has recently produced in a single month, on average," Ana Swanson reports for The New York Times. "It would increase United States trade with Canada and Mexico by about 5 percent, as well as provide a modest lift to agriculture, services and manufacturing activity."

The USMCA is the proposed replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement; President Trump ordered the renegotiation soon after taking office because he blamed NAFTA for increasing the U.S. trade deficit, Swanson reports. Most of the USMCA consists of updates to NAFTA's framework; others were drawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a pending trade agreement from which Trump withdrew immediately after taking office.

Several agricultural sectors would benefit from the agreement, Ryan McCrimmon reports for Politico:

• "Dairy exports from the U.S. to Canada would increase by $227 million annually, a jump of 43.8 percent. U.S. imports of Canadian dairy products would also rise, with $161.7 million more in goods entering the country.
• Poultry raised in the U.S. would get expanded access to the Canadian market. Poultry meat exports in particular would increase by $183.5 million, or 49.3 percent, while shipments of live birds and eggs for incubation would rise by 11.2 percent and exports of eggs for consumption would jump by 27.9 percent.
• Sugar would be traded between Canada and the U.S. at higher rates: Imports from Canada would increase by $16 million, or 1.4 percent, and exports from the U.S. would rise by $21.1 million, or 2.3 percent.
• U.S. wheat producers are likely to get a small increase in access to the Canadian market, as well."