Quick hits: Tick app; Northeast rice crops; health benefits of dancing; moon farms; meteorologists get to Hollywood

As spring turns into summer, more ticks are hitching rides on socks, shoes, pant legs and hairdos. The tiny vectors bite thousands of people each year and spread diseases such as alpha-gal syndrome, Lyme disease, babesiosis and Rocky Mountain spotted fever. But there is hope. Researchers are asking people to share their tick bites and discoveries on The Tick App so that their habits can be better understood and more effective preventive practices can be developed. The Tick App also gives tips for identifying and removing ticks.

The Northeast isn't known as a rice-growing mecca, but as the region's climate changes, some farmers are giving the crop a try. "Around New York and beyond, weather has shifted to become more extreme, bringing intense rainfall and hailstorms that could damage crops," reports Alice Sun for Offrange. Rice paddies are flood-resistant, able to withstand extreme weather, and the crop fetches a good price. Researchers at Cornell University, along with some "pioneering farmers are working to make it a more common crop in the Northeast, as a buffer for farmers to adapt to increasingly unpredictable weather."

Maria isn't sure about Elmo's reasoning. (Sesame Street photo)

Fans of "Sesame Street," past or present, may want to watch the new documentary tracing the life and career of actress Sonia Manzan, better known as the character "Maria." As Maria, Manzan became the first Latina to appear on a regular TV series, reports Greg Toppo of The74. The film travels back to Manzan's difficult upbringing in the South Bronx during the 1950s, follows her big break with the musical Godspell, and includes her adventures with Oscar the Grouch and Elmo on Sesame Street. The film is currently touring at film festivals throughout the spring and summer.

Even dancing from a sitting position is considered
healthy movement. (Photo by E. Marritz,Dance for PD)

What activity can be done while sitting or standing, creates joy and is healthy? If you thought dancing, you're correct. "Modern research is now catching up to the fact that dance is medicine, a deeply effective intervention for physical, cognitive and emotional health," reports Michaela Haas for Reasons to be Cheerful. "In a longitudinal study, seniors who took part in regular dance training fell less often and were 'physically better off and mentally fitter' than those in the control group."

It's not going to be science fiction for much longer: NASA is learning how to farm on the moon. "As we get ready to feed astronauts on the Moon and Mars, NASA scientists are figuring out how to build soil from scratch," reports Lela Nargi for Offrange. "Ralph Fritsch, a NASA retiree and lead subject matter expert for the Mars to Table challenge, which seeks to identify plausible 'surface habitat food systems,' believes space ag will probably start with hydroponics. . . . Although Fritsch believes dirt-based space greenhouses are years from fruition, there’s still been heavy investment in research."

Everyone asks about, talks about and complains about the weather -- it's a shared human experience. With the exception of farmers, who are also weather obsessed, few people might glamorize meteorologists. Until now. "Meteorologists are rarely the heroes of major Hollywood movies. Never say never," writes Rebecca Hersher of NPR. "The new film 'Pressure' is a lightly fictionalized version of the actual lead-up to the D-Day invasion of France by Allied troops during World War II, and the crucial role of meteorologists in deciding when that battle would happen." 

Flora & Fauna: Masked bandits evolve; 2-purpose turkeys; foraging stats; whales' aging secrets; birds can help farmers

Perhaps one day, urban raccoons will be pets.
(Adobe Stock photo)

Racoons are masked, cute, and affectionately known as "trash pandas," and they are proving to have a real knack for evolving to live alongside humans, reports Axios. "The same evolutionary forces that turned wolves into domesticated dogs over thousands of years may now be reshaping urban raccoons, recent studies suggest." Marcie Logsdon, who works closely with wildlife rehabbers, told Axios, "Raccoons have adapted incredibly well to our presence. . . [They are] bold enough to raid garbage cans but polite enough" to avoid altercations with people.

An agrivoltaic 'trial flock' enjoys solar panel shade.
(Photo by Evan Carpenter, Offrange)

These turkeys have it made in the shade as they peck and strut under solar panels, unwittingly being prepared as a holiday dinner while also participating in a "dual-use agrivoltaic system," reports Jake Zajkowski for Offrange. Evan Carpenter, who is raising the "trial flock," will share bird and energy outcomes with "project collaborators United Agrivoltaics and Cornell University, to study the feasibility and business model of Carpenter’s project to scale dual-use income land."

In the Mid-Atlantic forests of the U.S., researchers Amy Wrobleski and Eric Burkhart explored regional fungi foraging and shared some of their findings with The Conversation. "We learned that harvesters use the mushrooms primarily for food and medicinal purposes. . . . Over 800 harvesters reported that, collectively, they foraged 160 species of wild mushrooms. . . . Morels and chicken of the woods were the two most popular. . . .Other popular species were hen of the woods, oysters, lion’s mane, black trumpet, honey mushroom, turkey tail, bolete, reishi, puffball, chaga, shrimp of the woods and Dryad’s saddle." Mid-Atlantic fungi can be found here. 

Bowhead whale and calf (NOAA Fisheries photo)

At full-grown, a bowhead whale can weigh 88 tons, which is roughly the weight of 15 elephants. But that's not the only outrageous bowhead fact -- the whale can live to be 268 years old. "Some whales caught in the late 1900s had old harpoon points lodged in their blubber that dated to the mid-1800s," reports Carl Zimmer of The New York Times. "A study published in the journal Nature offers a clue to how the animals manage to live so long: They are extraordinarily good at fixing damaged DNA."

K4 Ranches photo

When it comes to raising cattle, a horse is a rancher's best friend. "Using horses to check and gather cattle is typically the only option with rugged terrain," reports Maddy Rohr for Drovers. Diamond A Ranch, a division of K4 Ranch in Arizona, employs a large crew with seasonal cowboys and eight camps with full-time cowboys." Sarah Kieckhefer of K4 told Rohr, "A good horse can go where a pickup, ATV or side-by-side can’t. Horses can cover long distances and a horse allows you to move quietly, ease cattle along and reduce stress, which leads to fewer wrecks and better weight retention.”

Photo by Mike Wagner via Reasons to be Cheerful

American rice grower Mike Wagner welcomes thousands of migratory ducks, geese and shorebirds that "arrive on his farmland after harvest every autumn," writes Elizabeth Hewitt for Reasons to be Cheerful. "Over winter and early spring, the birds clean up leftovers from the growing season. Thousands of webbed feet mix up soil and water, leaving the fields ready for planting when they depart in the spring. And their droppings are so rich that Wagner has cut how much synthetic fertilizer he needs for his crop by more than a third."  

Flora & Fauna: Canine pals help veterans with PTSD; finding rice paddies in Appalachia; welcoming bats; go fish!

Psychiatric service dogs can help veterans cope with
PTSD. (Adobe Stock photo)

U.S. veterans or military workers who have post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) can feel and function better with the help of a psychiatric service dog, according to a study published in JAMA Network Open. Veterans with a canine pal "endured less severe symptoms and experienced significantly less depression and anxiety." This is the first NIH-funded study — and the largest ever — to focus on service dogs for military-related PTSD. It’s also the first study on this topic to use blind ratings, meaning that clinicians who assessed patients’ outcomes didn’t know whether they had a dog or not." Read the study and findings here.

Colorful, savory and full of history are a few ways to describe this heritage rice. "Black shell, red, purple, white and green. The Laotian rice that thrives in the North Carolina foothills is a treasure to Hmong farmers – and a revelation to others," writes Sheri Castle for The Bitter Southerner. "I never figured I’d be in a rice paddy at all, much less one in the Appalachian foothills of Western North Carolina. I was about an hour from where I’d grown up, but a world away. It was like finding a pearl in a potato."

When you go fishing, you can make memories and dinner. Having fun while snagging fish is what the group "Let's Go Fishing" aims to do through fishing boat tours for seniors, veterans, disabled adults and children. "We’re always looking for new communities to serve. If there’s a lake, we can help you put a pontoon on it and bring the joy of fishing to more people." Find out about starting a chapter.

Purple coneflowers are now common in
home gardens. (Adode Stock photo)

Once called weeds, native prairie plants are returning to their natural habitats through gardening education. "We find ourselves in the age of the pollinator plant, and the pollinator garden, and interest keeps growing. But it wasn’t always so," reports Margaret Roach of The New York Times. Expert gardener Neil Diboll remembers when purple coneflowers weren't welcome, but around 1989, sentiment changed. Diboll told Roach, “Purple coneflower was elevated from wildflower to quote-unquote perennial, and it was allowed inside the garden gate. . . . It paved the way for other native flowers and grasses to enter."

Hedge parsley is sometimes called
'Burn it.' (Nativetexaspark photo)

Gardening delight can go sour when it turns out those lovely white buds are invaders. "Torilis arvensis, known as hedge parsley has reedy stalks with tops that explode in tiny white flowers come springtime. It grows quickly and can be found in most regions of Texas, but it’s not native to the state or even the country," reports Amanda O’Donnell for Texas Monthly. "The plant has seeds that present as minuscule, stubborn burrs after a bloom, notorious for embedding themselves in clothes, animal fur, leg hair, and absolutely anything else that can aid in their proliferation." Hedge parsley isn't the only invader. "Many Texans have added bastard cabbage, or Rapistrum rugosum, to their list of vegetal enemies." To read how to remove or burn these interlopers, click here.

Bats are picky about their real estate options.
(Adobe Stock photo)

Bats are a farmer's best friend when eradicating crop-destroying bugs such as codling moth larvae -- but there's a catch. "Scientists have discovered significant effectiveness of bats for orchard pests. But the nighttime hunters are fickle about where they settle down," reports Sarah Derouin of Ambrook Research. To get bats to live and breed in an orchard area means creating spaces that are as bat-friendly as possible. "Agroforestry practices of incorporating trees into agricultural landscapes can go a long way for farm biodiversity and bat support. Treelines or patches of trees can provide bats with alternate places to forage while different cycles of pests emerge throughout the season."

Farm Bill debate snags on GOP efforts to cut climate funds and food aid to increase subsidies for cotton, peanuts, rice

"Congress appears unlikely to pass a new Farm Bill by the end of this year amid standoffs over Republicans’ push to extend subsidies to three specific Southern crops — at the potential cost of billions in both food aid and popular farm conservation programs," reports Saul Elbein of The Hill.

The Farm Bill will expire Dec. 31 unless Congress passes an extension, which senators say could be included in a bill to keep the government open after next week. But Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson, R-Pa., "said Speaker Mike Johnson had committed December floor time to the farm bill — and gave The Hill a preview of what such a bill might look like," Elbein reports.

The GOP plan would boost subsidies for peanuts, cotton and rice, "the only commodities that won’t get automatic price increases" under current law, Elbein reports: "To pay for this increase, Republican supporters of those programs want to cut food aid and take money from $20 billion previously allocated to conservation payments backed by Democrats, environmental groups and a wide array of farm groups. Thompson argues this move is necessary because 'at least two of those commodities are really upside down right now,' or facing expenses above the market prices of their products — an apparent allusion to cotton and peanuts. . . . According to USDA figures, market prices for cotton in 2022 weren’t high enough to cover the sector’s total expenses."

The plan would raise payments in the Agricultural Risk Coverage/Price Loss Coverage (ARC/PLC) program. "Critics say the proposed increases to the ARC/PLC will direct money only to a few thousand of the nation’s biggest farmers at the expense of programs that benefit all of them," Elbein reports. "Ten percent receive 80 percent of the payments, and 'only the largest of peanut farmers receive more than a few thousand'," Scott Faber of the Environmental Working Group told Elbein.

The plan also has conservative opposition. David Ditch of the Heritage Foundation "argued that in an era when interest payments on the national debt are already dragging on the economy, Thompson’s proposal would lock in permanent payments to farmers who — while they may have had a hard year — are already well-subsidized," Elbein reports.

Jonathan Coppess, an attorney in the University of Illinois agricultural economics department, also takes a longer view. "However bad this year’s picture is for cotton, rice and peanuts, Coppess said, agriculture as a whole is coming off of two record years — and most farms that will qualify for ARC/PLC payments are very large, highly diversified operations that grow many crops, rather than just a few," Elbein writes.

"And even the idea that crops such as cotton are underwater this year relies on counting — as the USDA does — costs that include opportunity or capital recovery costs, or the “expense” of using land, labor or equipment for farming as opposed to using it for something else. This strains the very notion of 'expense,' said Anne Schechinger, Midwest director of the EWG."

Secret of sushi's success, from a Southern California farm

Los Angeles Times photo

A little meme said, "It's not all about avocado toast anymore; it's all about protein bowls and sushi; sushi is always in." But why? It's the rice, reports Daniel Miller of the Los Angeles Times: "Koda Farms played a key role in the spread of sushi in Los Angeles in the 1960s, said Atsuko Kanai, daughter of Noritoshi Kanai, who helped popularize the cuisine in the Southland. Without Kokuho Rose, the farm's special strain of medium-grain rice, his sushi gambit might have failed. Atsuko, whose father visited Koda Farms in 1963 and struck a distribution deal to wholesale the Kokuho Rose rice to L.A. restaurants, told Miller, "There were a few things that made sushi possible — No. 1 and most pivotal was the rice Koda Farms … [made. It was] a more palatable rice that could be served in sushi."

"Launched in 1962, Kokuho Rose was developed by Koda Farms in conjunction with rice breeder Arthur Hughes Williams. The heirloom variety, Koda said, crossed a California medium-grain rice with a Middle Eastern long-grain to create a new, higher-quality medium-grain offering," Miller explains. "The rice was a revelation: Until the invention of this medium-grain strain, what had been available to make sushi in California was 'tasteless, couldn't retain moisture, and would get brittle as it cooled down,' said Anthony Al-Jamie, editor in chief of the Japanese culture magazine Tokyo Journal."

One might not have happened without the other. "It isn't just Atsuko Kanai who has touted the significance of Koda Farms' contribution to L.A.'s sushi supply chain. Al-Jamie said that the creation of Kokuho Rose was 'essential' to the spread of sushi across the region," Miller reports. "Without the heirloom rice, Al-Jamie said, 'I don't think [sushi] would have taken off' when it did. . . . In more recent years, Koda Farms' rice has won acclaim from chefs and food publications. In 2020, Sunset magazine dubbed it the 'Holy Grail of California Rice.'. . . But, in a twist, Kokuho Rose is no longer a sushi bar staple, with chefs now preferring short-grain rice. In the 1980s, Koda said, more Japanese short-grain rice became available in the U.S. market, which may explain the change. That rice, she said, is 'more sticky' than Kokuho Rose, and 'it seems to be a preference' among sushi chefs."

USDA releases details for pandemic-related aid to farmers

On Tuesday the U.S. Department of Agriculture released long-awaited details about its $16 billion direct payment program for farmers and ranchers struggling economically amid the pandemic. Farmers and ranchers can start applying for aid Tuesday, May 26; USDA says checks will begin going out as soon as a week later.

"USDA maintained the payment limit of $250,000 per farmer, but the initial $125,000-per-commodity cap was lifted following bipartisan backlash from Congress. Corporations and other entities can get up to $750,000 based on the number of shareholders who spend at least 400 hours on farm labor or management," Ryan McCrimmon reports for Politico's Morning Agriculture. "Because of high demand for aid and a limited pot of money (which Secretary Sonny Perdue, lawmakers and industry groups virtually all agree is too little), the department will send producers 80 percent of their payment and distribute the rest later if the funds haven’t been depleted."

Some crops and livestock aren't eligible for aid because their prices didn't drop by at least 5% since January, including some kinds of wheat, rice and peanuts, older sheep and egg-laying hens, and more. "But the department left the door open to 'reconsider' if those producers can demonstrate their market damage, except for two crops: hemp and tobacco," McCrimmon reports.

Ag roundup: Farmers' hopes dip as pandemic roils markets

Here's a roundup of how the covid-19 pandemic is affecting the agriculture sector.

Farmers' hopes for a good year pushed Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer to a record high in February, but pandemic fears caused the barometer to plunge in March. The barometer is based on monthly surveys of 400 U.S. farmers.

"Price forecasts for most agricultural products are bleak. In the past month, dairy prices have dropped 26-36%, corn futures have dropped by 14%, soybean futures are down 8% and cotton futures have plummeted 31%," Feed & Grain reports. "Hog futures are down by 31%. A surge in demand for beef emptied grocery store meat aisles, but there is no lack of supply. Despite a rise in retail prices in some areas, the prices paid to cattle ranchers have fallen 25%."

Spot and future prices are spiking for some staples like wheat and rice, the University of Illinois' Farm Policy News reports. That's likely to stabilize; the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects global wheat and rice reserves to be an an all-time high. 

Some groceries are getting more expensive. Egg prices at the supermarket have tripled in the past month, The Wall Street Journal reports.

On the bright side, lower energy prices mean fertilizer prices are down, David Widmar reports for Successful Farming.

Farmers are panic-buying animal feed, fearing that feed mills will close or trucks might be delayed, Bloomberg Businessweek reports.

A Tyson Foods meatpacking plant in southeastern Iowa shut down Monday after more than two dozen workers got sick with covid-19, Chuck Abbott reports for the Food & Environment Reporting Network. Others could shutter, affecting rural jobs.

Federal Reserve's Beige Book notes economic trouble in farming sector because of weather, trade, and more

Federal Reserve Bank districts, with regional headquarters

In its recently released Beige Book, a summary of current economic conditions by Federal Reserve district, the Federal Reserve Board reports that agriculture is in trouble.

Farm conditions across the country "deteriorated further due to the ongoing impacts of adverse weather, weak commodity prices and trade disruptions," the report says.

Key farming regions, like the Corn Belt, are especially hurting. Seventh District industry sources interviewed by the Federal Reserve "had mounting concerns about how much of this year’s crop would be able to fully mature before a hard frost hits," according to the report.

In states like Missouri and Arkansas, farm conditions have declined "modestly" since the last report on Sept. 4, and there has been a sharp drop in corn, rice and soybean production. "The outlook among contacts remained relatively pessimistic due to depressed commodity prices and trade uncertainty," says the report.

Heavy rains in the Upper Midwest hurt crop planting, and may harm harm harvests. "Recent forecasts indicated that corn and soybean production in [Ninth] District states may decrease 10 percent and 20 percent, respectively, in 2019 compared with last year," according to the report, noted  by Ryan McCrimmon in Politico's "Morning Agriculture."

How climate change is affecting 11 American crops

Peaches are among crops threatened by a combination of warmer
winters followed by late frosts. (Photo by Maura Friedman, NYT)

Consumers may see climate change as a nebulous concept with far-off effects, but agriculture is already seeing plenty of changes. "Warmer temperatures are extending growing seasons in some areas and sending a host of new pests into others. Some fields are parched with drought, others so flooded that they swallow tractors," Kim Severson reports for The New York Times. "Decades-long patterns of frost, heat and rain — never entirely predictable but once reliable enough — have broken down."

Small climate shifts that nudge growing seasons even a few weeks earlier or later can disrupt supply chains, schedules for farm workers, and natural processes like honeybee pollination and pest management. And though higher temperatures make it possible to grow crops in once unsuitable areas, that heat also hurts crops in traditional growing areas, Severson reports.

Here are 11 common food crops, from all over the country, that Severson reports are seeing big changes because of climate change:

1. Tart cherries have long been grown in northern Michigan, since growers have been able to rely on long, cold winters and slow, cool springs so the trees don't bloom until the threat of a late freeze has passed. But warmer early temperatures, followed by freezes, have caused two total crop failures in the past decade; the last one before that was in 1945. Increasingly violent spring storms have damaged the fruit, and the climate shift has also brought an invasive fruit fly that ruins the cherries.
2. Organic raspberries are endangered in New York because of too-warm winters that don't kill off fruit flies and other pests. Organic farmers are especially vulnerable to insects since they can't use commercial pesticides. The area has also been seeing either way too much rain (which causes fungus on the fruit) or not enough (which means the fruit doesn't grow).
3. Watermelon farmers in Florida are planting and harvesting crops earlier. That means they're competing with late-winter crops from Mexico, so American farmers may not have enough Mexican laborers to pick crops, especially with tighter immigration restrictions in place.
4. Chickpeas are doing well in Montana because of climate change. The average annual temperature has increased 2.4 degrees in the past century, but average rainfall has stayed about the same. That makes chickpeas a good bet, since they require less water than other cereal grains and also improve the soil, but the crop faces global competition. 
5. Wild blueberries are a rockstar in Maine agriculture, but a longer growing season, warmer summers, erratic frosts, increasing fruit flies, and more frequent droughts are threatening the crop.
6. Organic heirloom popcorn has been a reliable crop in Iowa for decades, but increasing flooding, tornadoes and other unpredictable weather are making it much harder to grow.
7. Peaches in Georgia and South Carolina are threatened by increasingly warm winters. Without a certain amount of consistently cold weather, the buds are weak and make poor fruit. Also, too-warm winters followed by frost can kill most buds. A warm winter in 2017 led to the failure of almost 85% of Georgia's peach crop.
8. Organic apples in Washington are suffering from hotter spring weather, since such weather increases diseases like fire blight. Hotter temperatures can also cause apples to sunburn.
9. Golden kiwi fruit in Texas are well suited to heat and humidity, but require a certain amount of predictably cold weather to thrive. Erratic spring freezes threaten that. 
10. Artichokes in California depend on cool, cloudy weather fed by the Pacific Ocean in the spring, but a warming ocean has made such weather less common, and warmer weather in general means more pests.
11. Rice is notoriously thirsty, and decreasing rain in Arkansas, where almost half the nation's supply is grown, is drying out rice farms and the underground aquifers that help water the fields. Higher temperatures cause more starch content, making rice stickier and more brittle.

China allows first imports of U.S. rice, but in the meantime has hampered other U.S. exporters with inspections

With the U.S. and China in a nominal cease-fire of the trade war, China is making a conciliatory but possibly symbolic gesture by allowing imports of brown, polished and crushed rice from the United States for the first time, Reuters reports. However, it's unclear how much rice China might actually buy from the U.S.

Meanwhile, China has been creatively hurting U.S. exporters by denying shipments as Chinese inspectors judge them wanting. "Disparate American goods such as oranges, logs, calf skins and even Lincoln vehicles have encountered heightened customs reviews at Chinese ports this year. Multinational companies already accustomed to the sometimes difficult environment have reported an uptick in the number of hurdles they must jump through in order to do business in the increasingly lucrative market," report Megan Cassella of Politico and Chad Bray and Finbarr Bermingham of Hong Kong's independent South China Morning Post. American exporters whose shipments failed inspection have been forced to quickly find other buyers, especially when the product is perishable.

"The total value of products that China imports from the U.S. represents just one-fourth of what it exports, so Beijing cannot match U.S. tariffs dollar for dollar, but China has many other weapons in its arsenal to make doing business painful and costly," Reuters reports. "Chinese officials rarely tie such actions directly to any international tensions, and they often go unnoticed outside the industries that are affected by them, trade experts said. But they are part of a well-worn playbook for the Chinese government, which has used these and other non-tariff barriers for years during political squabbles."

Beige Book examines the agricultural economy by Federal Reserve Bank districts; tariffs and trade having impacts

Federal Reserve districts (Federal Reserve Board map)

On Sept. 12 the Federal Reserve Board released its August 2018 Beige Book update, which summarizes commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve district, Keith Good reports for Farm Policy News at the University of Illinois. A few notable entries:

• Most of the Sixth District, which is based in Atlanta and covers much of the Deep South, remains drought-free, but most of Louisiana and parts of Mississippi and Alabama are abnormally dry. Production for rice, soybeans and cotton is up from last year, but peanut production is down. Year-to-year rices paid to farmers in June were down for beef but up for corn, cotton, rice, soybeans, broilers and eggs. 
• Overall crop yields for the Seventh District, centered on Chicago, are set to hit a record high because of good weather. Wheat prices were higher because of lower world supplies, and hog prices were lower because tariffs led to a drop in exports. Dairy farmers were still struggling as milk prices remained low. 
• In the Tenth District, which includes the heart of the Great Plains, farm income and credit conditions weakened and crop prices remained fairly steady after sharp declines in June and July. Corn and soybean prices increased a little in late July but went down again in August. "Uncertainty surrounding trade was a primary concern, and the prolonged weaknesses in the agricultural economy were increasingly impacting farm borrower finances. Although interest rates on farm loans continued to increase along- side weakening agricultural credit conditions, farmland values declined only modestly," Good reports.

USDA releases parts of long-term farm projections

Yesterday the U.S. Department of Agriculture released selected parts of its projections of production, consumption, and prices for major U.S. crops and livestock for the coming decade. It stressed in a press release that the figures are not forecasts, but a "conditional long-run scenario" that assumes normal weather and yields with no change in U.S. farm policy. The complete report will be released in February 2018.

Some highlights from the report:

• Overall corn acres are projected to fall from 94 million in 2016-2017 to 87.5 million planted in 2027-28, but the yield and price per bushel is expected to rise from 174.6 bushels per acre at $3.36 in 2016-2017 to 191.5 bushels per acre at $3.60 in 2027-2028. Net returns are projected to rise from $253 per acre in 2016-17 to $320 per acre in 2027-28.
• Soybean acres are projected to increase from 83.4 million in 2016-17 to 91.5 million in 2027-28. Net returns may increase from $320 per acre in 2016-17 to $326 in 2027-28.
• Wheat acreage is expected to fall from 50.1 million acres in 2016-17 to 48 million in 2027-28, with decreasing yields: from 52.7 bushels per acre in 2016-17 to 50.9 bushels per acre in 2027-28. The price for wheat is predicted to rise from $3.89 per bushel in 2016-17 to $5.20 per bushel in 2027-28. Net returns are projected to rise from $89 per acre in 2016-17 to $132 per acre in 2027-28.
• Rice acres could fall from 3.1 million in 2016-17 to 2.9 million in 2027-28, but yields are projected to rise from 7,237 pounds per acre in 2016-17 to 7,996 pounds per acre in 2027-28, with average price per hundredweight rising from $10.40 in 2016-17 to $13.10 in 2027-28. Net returns are projected to rise from $186 per acre in 2016-17 to $408 per acre in 2027-28.
• Barley may become less profitable, with projected net returns falling from $216 per acre in 2016-2017 to $210 in 2027-2028.
• Sorghum may also become less profitable, with projected net returns falling from $82 per acre in 2016-17 to $79 in 2027-28.
• Upland cotton plantings are projected to rise from 9.9 million acres in 2016-17 to 11.4 million in 2027-28, while the yield may rise from 855 pounds per acre in 2016-17 to 899 in 2027-28. The price per pound is projected to rise from 68 cents in 2016-2017 to 72 cents in 2027-28. Net return per acre is projected to rise from $180 in 2016-17 to $206 in 2027-28.
• Sugar projections were made for both sugar beets and sugar cane. Sugar-beet acres may decrease from 1.16 million in 2016-17 to 1.09 million in 2027-28, with a slightly increasing yield per acre during that time frame. Sugar-cane acres may increase from 853,000 in 2016-17 to 916,000 in 2027-28.
• Total meat consumption by Americans is projected to rise from 214.6 pounds per person in 2016 to 221.5 pounds in 2027. Within that total, red-meat consumption is expected to rise slightly more than poultry consumption. 
• Total dairy cows are projected to rise from 9.3 million in 2016 to 9.5 million in 2027, with pounds of milk produced per cow expected to rise from 22,775 pounds in 2016 to 26,205 pounds in 2027.

Continued severe drought in West and Southwest means grocery store prices will keep rising

Groceries across the country will feel the effects of severe drought in the West and Southwest, as prices of fruits, vegetables, beef and rice are expected to rise dramatically in the coming months, Brianna Sacks reports for the Los Angeles Times. (Times photo by Don Bartletti: San Gabriel reservoir has receded over a mile.)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a report this week that said fresh fruit and vegetable prices are expected to increase an estimated 6 percent, mainly due to drought in California that is draining local water supplies, Sacks writes. Timothy Richards, a chair at the Morrison School of Agribusiness at Arizona State University, told Sacks, "You’re probably going to see the biggest produce price increases on avocados, berries, broccoli, grapes, lettuce, melons, peppers, tomatoes and packaged salads."

Almost 70 percent of the nation's lettuce is grown in California, where "the rising cost of water has forced farmers to idle about 500,000 acres of land and produce less, making certain foods more expensive," Sacks writes. Rice could also be hit hard by drought, with prices rising 10 to 20 percent, said Daniel Sumner, director of the Agriculture Issues Center at University of California Davis.

Drought conditions in the Southwest are also expected to drive beef prices up 9 percent, while milk prices are expected to rise because of an increase in demand, Sacks writes. Overall, food prices rose half a percent in May, the largest hike since August 2011, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. (Read more)

Midwest-South conflict among Republicans could derail Farm Bill; Obama issues strategic veto threat

UPDATE, 6:55 p.m.: "The White House warned Monday that it would veto the House farm bill as it now stands and signaled strongly that the fastest path to some compromise this summer would be by taking savings from crop insurance to offset Republican-backed cuts from food stamps, Rogers reports. "The most severe of the food-stamp savings would come from re-imposing tighter income limits and an outdated asset test that could force more than two million beneficiaries off the rolls. The estimated savings are $11.5 billion over the next 10 years, and the administration made note that its own crop insurance reforms could save an almost equal sum, $11.7 billion. . . . The administration’s statement seemed designed to serve two purposes: put down a veto marker that will give liberal Democrats some comfort but at the same time try to keep the process moving into conference with the Senate."

As the House version of the Farm Bill heads to the floor Tuesday, corn and soybean lobbies are "backing a Midwest floor challenge to the new price-loss program crafted by the House Agriculture Committee, which is already struggling to win what’s expected to be a close vote on final passage," David Rogers reports for Politico. "Adding salt to the wound was Friday’s release of a paid-for academic paper commissioned by the Environmental Working Group but also rooted in the Midwest and highly critical of the same price-loss program — most important to Southern producers," especially of rice and peanuts.

Rogers writes that the current state of play illustrates "a destructive South-Midwest divide among Republicans and the outsize impact of a small stable of academics hired to punch holes in the current system.  Corn and soybeans are plainly hoping to increase their leverage going into conference with the Senate," which has passed its version. "But in doing so, they could make it harder for [Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank] Lucas to get there in the first place."

The Midwest-oriented amendment would change how target prices are set "and what acreage will be used to calculate payments if markets collapse," Rogers reports. "Left out of the corn-and-beans letter is any mention of the fact that the same two commodities stand to gain richly from a far more expensive 'shallow-loss' subsidy program in the Senate bill. With much of agriculture holding hands just to get across the House floor, the hardball tactics are risky. . . . If the Farm Bill collapses, it’s very unlikely that Congress will again approve a broad extension of current law as it did last winter.
Crop insurance and nutrition programs would survive because of separate authorizations. But there’s broad consensus that commodity programs could be lost given the appetite for spending reductions."

House passage of the bill is in doubt partly because "More than half of the current representatives have never cast a vote on a farm bill," Agri-Pulse reports. Amendments must be filed by Monday, so the Rules Committee can set terms for debate. Wednesday and Thursday, look for "a series of knockdown fights," Rogers writes.

Senate farm bill heads to the floor; House version moving through key committee votes

The Senate Agriculture Committee cleared a new five-year farm bill Tuesday by a speedy 15-5 vote, but heated floor debates are expected over issues such as jobs, crop insurance, food stamps, disaster relief, rural development and the legalization of hemp, an issue not now in the bill but pushed by Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Rand Paul, both of Kentucky, with state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer, the state's other statewide elected Republican.

McConnell was the only Republican from the South to vote against the bill in committee, reports David Rogers of Politico. Also voting no were Democrat Kristen Gillibrand of New York and Republicans Pat Roberts of Kansas, Mike Johanns of Nebraska and John Thune of South Dakota.

“This is not a reform bill,” said Roberts, right. “This is a rear-view mirror bill.” He said target prices set for rice and peanuts are “essentially guaranteeing that a farmer profits if yields are average or above average.” (Read more)

The bill calls for the elimination of more than 100 programs, in some cases consolidating programs to save money while still providing needs, reports Bob Meyer of Brownfield. "By closing loopholes, cracking down on abuse and improving program integrity, the bill reduces the deficit without cutting standard benefits or removing any needy family from the program."

The bill should save taxpayers money "while providing farmers with a responsible risk management system that only helps farmers when they experience substantial losses due to events beyond their control," Meyer reports.

The House Agriculture Committee is marking up its own bill today. "The House debate is the more pivotal, especially after the tortured history of the last Congress," Rogers reports. "Chairman Frank Lucas, left, appeared firmly in control and signaled he would work into the night in order to complete committee action. But the Oklahoma Republican must navigate a narrow path between food stamp cuts that have angered Democrats and the bill’s commodity title, which often defies his own GOP leadership. Two votes Wednesday highlighted these tensions, which will surely spill over into House floor debate slated next month."

By 26-20, a narrower margin than last year, the panel endorsed "a new dairy program strongly opposed by Speaker John Boehner," and by 27-17 it backed Lucas's plan to cut $20.5 billion from food stamps and other nutrition programs over the next decade. "Nearly two million beneficiaries could be dropped from the food stamp rolls as a result of the program changes, which would reinstate a $2,000 federal asset test that not been adjusted for inflation since it was first imposed in the 1980s," Rogers reports. The second page of his story has a good, short summary of the dairy issue.

UPDATE, 11:43 p.m.: The House committee approved the bill 36-10.

Senate, House farm bills both have sops to the South; meat lobbies crack egg-rule deal

A new draft of the Senate farm bill gives concessions to pork and beef lobbies over proposed rules for housing livestock, and also includes target prices for rice and peanut producers in an attempt to please Southern Republicans, reports David Rogers for Politico. Meanwhile, the House draft includes its own sop to the South (cotton) and a new dairy program that will divide the Republican majority. (AP photo)

The bill would allow the Midwest Corn Belt to keep its costly crop-insurance program, Agricultural Risk Coverage, but with changes that could cut billions from the 10-year budget score calculated by the Congressional Budget Office, reports Rogers. The standard index will be changed from a five-month average market price to the 12-month average, reducing the cost to the government based on a typical marketing year. It will also "push ARC payments into the next fiscal year since the average 12-month marketing price for corn, for example, won’t be known until past Sept 30."

Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., wanted to include new egg-production standards agreed on by animal-welfare groups and United Egg Producers that "would require larger, enriched cages with perches, nesting boxes and improved manure systems," reports Amy Mayer for KCUR in Kansas City. Beef and pork lobbies, fearing the next steps might be new rules for housing cattle and hogs, fought the idea, and it was taken out of the Senate bill, Rogers reports.

Soon after the Senate bill was unveiled, House Republicans rolled out their draft measure. It includes "a major rewrite of commodity programs," including a "milk supply management program that has been harshly criticized in the past by Speaker John Boehner." The bill also includes a two-year phaseout of cotton producers' direct payments, which both bills would eliminate for other crops, Rogers notes.

The main financial difference in the bills is the House's proposed $20.5 billion savings by tightening eligibility rules for food stamps, nearly 25 percent more than last year's bill (which did not pass) and much more than the $4 billion mark of the Senate bill. Erik Wasson of The Hill reports that concern centers on the rule that allows people getting federal heating assistance to also receive food stamps.

UPDATE, May 13: "The atmosphere on Capitol Hill for the farm bill suddenly seems to be full speed ahead," unlike last year, Jerry Hagstrom reports for National Journal. "The reason the bills are moving seems to be that each chamber has gotten tired of the farm bill hanging on and has something more interesting to move on to." Hagstrom theorizes that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid wants to get it over with "since exit polls showed that President Obama’s election percentage in rural America went from 50 percent in 2008 to 41 percent in 2012," and "House Republicans want to move on to the periodic reauthorization of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission," so it can "restrict the CFTC’s ability to finalize some of the regulations the agency has proposed" under the Dodd-Frank financial-reform law. (Read more)

Uncertainty about subsidies makes Farm Bureau drop language favored by rice and peanut farmers

During a vote on federal subsidies at the annual American Farm Bureau Federation meeting in Nashville, Southern delegates found themselves in the minority. Agri-Pulse reports that the voting body of the organization voted 179-153 for a motion supporting some types of crop insurance, but removing specific language calling for shallow loss revenue and reference prices, which Southern delegates supported. Such programs most often help Southern peanut and rice farmers. "We're not going to be drawing a line in the sand and promoting a single position," Farm Bureau President Bob Stallman said. The group did support development of a revenue insurance program for peanuts, which the Arkansas delegation amended to include rice.

"It's critically important we have room as we move forward," Indiana Farm Bureau President Don Villwock said. He said the agricultural policy is entering a "new world," and "The crystal ball is as cloudy as it can be," echoing the majority's concern and uncertainty about farm programs. Members kept language supporting "catostrophic loss coverage as a first choice in policy, while noting that, 'If a catastrophic risk program is not achievable, we support producers being allowed a choice of program options,'" Agri-Pulse reports.

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Farm Bill talks still stuck in North-South divide

"With time running out, House and Senate farm-bill leaders were still acres apart Wednesday night after an exchange of offers that only highlighted their competing visions of how to reshape commodity subsidies," with a distinct North-South divide, veteran D.C. agriculture-policy reporter David Rogers writes for Politico.

Senate negotiators have agreed to include rice, peanuts and wheat in a new income-insurance program that would take the place of direct payments, but the Senate's offer, which "covers 75 percent of what had been the difference between the competing baselines for these three crops," is not enough for the House, Rogers reports.

From there, it gets more complicated, but Rogers is the best at explaining it. He concludes, "without a deal soon — the only choice will be no Farm Bill, and starting all over again in a new Congress." To read his story, click here.

As Farm Bill is stuck in congressional 'no man's land' GOP senator switches to support Senate's version

Roberts, left, with Stabenow

In a move that puts him at odds with House Republican leaders, Pat Roberts of Kansas, top Republican on the Senate Agriculture Committee, told Agri-Pulse that he now supports Senate-passed version of the Farm Bill, and is working with Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., to get it passed as part of any "fiscal cliff" resolution. "We hope that we can see a train there on the other side of the tunnel," Roberts told the Washington newsletter. "Anything that moves, that needs money, obviously here's the way to do it."

The Farm Bill has been in place since the 1930s, and has sustained farmers through fluctuations in commodity prices, yields and weather. Every five years commodity groups, representing growers of rice, soybeans, wheat, cotton, peanuts and corn, lobby Congress for support. But this year, the bill is stuck "in no-man's land as the budget-and-tax war rages on Capitol Hill," Dan Freedman of the San Antonio Express-News writes.

The fight over the Farm Bill is causing "fissures among conservative Republicans," Freedman writes. Tea Party advocates see the bill as violating conservative and free market principles, spending too much on food stamps; House Speaker John Boehner has said it contains "Soviet-style" provisions on dairy subsidies. But farm-state Republicans "see Farm Bill spending as a wise investment in the rural economy and U.S. food security," Freedman writes.

The Senate version of the bill is geared more toward Midwestern soybean, wheat and corn farmers. The House seems more inclined to do more for Southern peanut and rice growers. A Farm Bill approved by the House Agriculture Committee basically guarantees rice farmers a "safety net" price they can use to get a bank loan at the start of the crop cycle, something many rice farmers say they could not have survived without. (Read more)

Expert sources on the House and Senate version of the bill told Agri-Pulse it wouldn't be hard to mesh the two versions, but Roberts said last year he wasn't a fan of the Senate version. "Roberts seemed to express a more conciliatory tone during a meeting between Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Stabenow, [House Ag Committee Chairman] Frank Lucas and House Ag Committee ranking member Collin Peterson last week, when he said the group reviewed Farm Bill challenges without negotiating any specific provisions," Agri-Pulse reports.

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Wal-Mart joins sustainable agriculture alliance

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, has joined an alliance of other Fortune 500 companies who say they want to make agriculture more sustainable. The Field to Market alliance was started three years ago by the non-profit Keystone Center to improve agricultural productivity and reduce the use of natural resources. It includes farm groups, grain handlers and food makers, but Wal-Mart is the first retailer in the group and now its largest member, writes Michael Hirtzer of Reuters. "We have pretty ambitious goals to sell products that are sustainable and this is directly within that framework," Rob Kaplan, Wal-Mart's senior manager of sustainability, said of the new partnership.

"Field to Market studies major crops and works with farmers to make agriculture more environmentally friendly," Hirtzler reports. "A report the group released earlier this summer highlighted how six crops -- corn, cotton, potatoes, rice, soybeans and wheat -- that are now being produced more efficiently than they were in the last three decades. On one project sponsored by Field to Market, General Mills Inc. worked with 25 wheat growers in Idaho to learn how to maximize the use of fertilizer and other products used in farming, such as seed, insecticides and herbicides."

Wal-Mart reports it is seeking to eliminate 20 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions from its global supply chain by the end of 2015. Last year, the company told Reuters it turned 1.2 million pounds of cooking oil recovered from its stores into biodiesel, soap and a supplement for cattle feed. Other members of the alliance include Kellogg, Cargill, Coca-Cola and the National Corn Growers Association.