Farmers, groceries and midterms: Diesel prices hit record-highs, leading to widespread cost increases

Diesel prices in the United States have continuously hit all-time highs in September. As of Sept. 10, diesel costs $5.98 on average, $2.31 more than when the U.S. and Israel began their war on Iran in February, reports Tik Root for Grist.

The surge in diesel prices comes just before November's midterm elections, and as domestic inventories are at their lowest since 1982.

Farmers and truckers who use more diesel in autumnal harvest seasons will be significantly impacted. Though most Americans don’t buy diesel, they still pay for it. The cost of diesel used to cultivate crops and transport those harvests to market is linked to the grocery prices one sees at the store.

“Early on, much of the cost increase gets absorbed along the supply chain through existing freight contracts and retailer margins,” David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, told the Associated Press. “But as contracts reprice and fuel surcharges take hold, more of that cost makes its way to the grocery store.”

This year, the Strait of Hormuz — through which 10% of imported diesel travels — was closed by Iran, which caused prices to surge. The last time gas prices soared this high was when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, which also shut Russia out of the global diesel market. 

Apart from higher prices for farmers and at grocery stores, a challenging winter is likely. Heating oil is essentially diesel, Root writes, and “the millions of U.S. households that still rely on it can expect unprecedented bills.”

What's up with tomato prices? The U.S. has collected $4.6 million in tomato tariffs — a 'staggering' 27,879% increase

The price of tomatoes is up 40% over
last year. (Photo by E. Akyurt, Unsplash)

For many Americans, tomatoes are a grocery staple, so heading into a store only to see the price of red sauce or salsa skyrocket serves as a reminder that the country is facing ongoing affordability challenges.

"Prices for those red orbs have soared more than any other food product over the past year to cement a spot as one of the consumer headaches du jour," reports Matt Sedensky of The Associated Press.

In the case of tomatoes, their "prices are up about 40% over a year ago, according to the latest Consumer Price Index," Sedensky explains. In comparison, coffee prices are up 18.5%, beef roasts are up 17.8%, and frozen fish and seafood are up 12%.

The war with Iran and tariffs are the two primary reasons tomatoes are pricier. "The war spiked gas prices and increased shipping costs," Sedensky explains. "Meantime, the U.S. withdrew from a deal allowing duty-free imports of tomatoes from Mexico, which grows most of America’s supply."

While American tomato farmers cheered to see their competition get slapped with a 17% tomato tariff,  Sedensky writes, soaring tomato prices have been another inflation shock for many U.S. consumers and restaurant operators.

Federal data says it best: "U.S. tariffs collected on tomatoes ballooned from just $16,424 in 2024 to nearly $4.6 million," AP reports. "A staggering 27,879% increase."

Some consumers have rushed to plant gardens, but for restaurants that collectively use thousands of tomatoes a day, the cost increase is hard to absorb.

Wayne Humphrey, chief operating officer of Snarf’s Sandwiches, where sliced tomatoes top most sandwiches, told AP, "That single ingredient now costs us more than $1.7 million in additional spend annually. The math is getting harder to ignore.”

China commits to purchasing at least $17 billion a year in farming products, but other agreements aren't as clear.

China's $17 million farming purchase commitment is 
good news for U.S. producers. (Adobe Stock photo)

In some good news for American farmers, following President Donald Trump's summit last week with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a White House fact sheet confirmed that China agreed to purchase "at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually through 2028, in addition to soybean commitments already agreed to," reports Ari Hawkins of Politico. The announcement is among "the few concrete deliverables" from last week's summit.

Beyond its agriculture purchase commitment, the White House said Beijing has "renewed expired registrations for more than 400 U.S. beef facilities and added new listings," Hawkins writes. "A move aimed at widening market access for American farmers." Additionally, China will now accept U.S. poultry imports that the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirms are free of avian influenza.

The summit included agreement on several other issues, but the specific engagement between the two countries on topics such as Iran remained vague. For instance, "Both countries agreed Iran cannot get ahold of a nuclear weapon," Hawkins reports. They also agreed that the "Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor should reopen, and that no country or group should be allowed to charge tolls."

The White House fact sheet didn't include details on how, or even whether, the countries planned to work together to resolve issues with Iran's nuclear capability or its blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Although President Trump noted that tariffs were not discussed at the summit, that "appears to contradict a statement from China’s commerce ministry, which said the two sides had reached a preliminary agreement to reduce some tariffs and also confirmed agricultural and aircraft deals, though it did not provide specifics," Hawkins adds. "Trump and Xi are expected to meet as many as four times this year."

Report: Food and agriculture sector will contribute $10.4 trillion to U.S. economy in 2026

The U.S. food and agriculture industries will produce $10.4 trillion for the economy in 2026, backing 48.7 million jobs, reports Feed & Grain staff.

Despite rising inflation and global trade pressures, the sector makes up almost 20% of the national economy, increasing profits by $894 billion each year, according to data from the Feeding the Economy report.

Food manufacturing is the largest manufacturing sector in the country, from two million farms and ranches to 200,000 food manufacturing, processing and storage facilities. It also includes more than one million restaurants and foodservice establishments, and 200,000 retail food stores.

The economic impact of the food and agriculture sector in each state. (Interactive map via Feeding the Economy, Click here to choose your state.)

Some of the highlights from the report show the food and agriculture sector generating:

• More than $177.3 billion worth of exports
• More than $3 trillion in workers' wages
• 6.5% growth in direct employment over the last decade
• 4% yearly rise in wages and 13% rise over the last decade, surpassing inflation
• $1.35 trillion in tax revenue for federal, state and local governments, increasing 7% each year

Many rural communities rely on food and agriculture revenue as the backbone of their local economy, with wages reinvested to support local housing, healthcare, education, small businesses and infrastructure, reports Feeding the Economy. “From farm to factory and truck to table, food and agriculture's impact sustains jobs, powers commerce, and strengthens communities across America."

U.S. seeks backup fertilizer suppliers to reduce damage to American farmers facing soaring costs and shortages

Farmers apply fertilizers just before or during spring 
planting. (Photo by Brandon Griggs, Unsplash)

With many crop fertilizers and fertilizer materials trapped by Iran's stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, the Trump administration has sought out countries that can produce or supply backup fertilizers for American farmers facing soaring fertilizer costs as they ramp up for spring plantings, reports Skylar Woodhouse of Farm Progress. American farmers already face economic headwinds from slowed trade with China, high fertilizer and fuel prices, high labor costs, and farm worker shortages.

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told reporters earlier this week that the Trump administration was looking for ways to minimize U.S. fertilizer shortages. "Hassett said the U.S. has 'established licenses for Venezuela to produce more fertilizer,' and has held discussions with Morocco," Woodhouse writes.

Reuters reported that roughly 30% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer supply would normally go through the Strait of Hormuz. Woodhouse reports, "One facility in Qatar had produced so much fertilizer that it supplied 'maybe about 20%' of the U.S. market, according to Hassett. The Iran conflict has mostly shut the key Strait of Hormuz passage for ships."

A March 13 letter from the American Soybean Association, the National Corn Growers Association, and other organizations asked fertilizer manufacturers Mosaic and Simplot to rescind their support for countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia, which contributed to spiking fertilizer costs even before the Iranian conflict.

As the war with Iran continues, farming fertilizer isn't the only pivotal import that relies on transport through the Middle East. Alexander Osipovich of The Wall Street Journal reports, "A protracted conflict with Iran could curtail exports of many inputs into the global supply chain. . . ranging from agriculture to chemicals and pharmaceuticals."

Osipovich includes a list from Barclays analysts on "some key non-energy products exported from nine Middle Eastern countries affected by the conflict." It's shared below.

62% of limestone flux, which is used in construction and is primarily sent to India
47% of sulfur, used for fertilizers and chemicals
28% of acyclic alcohols and derivatives, used as industrial chemicals and as fuel additives, and mostly exported to China
23% of polymers of ethylene, used in plastics manufacturing
23% of nitrogenous fertilizers, used in agriculture
20% of diamonds, with key processing hubs in Israel and the United Arab Emirates, though they are mined elsewhere
18% of unwrought aluminum

Agriculture leaders warn of possible 'widespread collapse of American agriculture' without significant changes

Nearly half of all U.S. farms are not profitable.
(Photo by Matthew Putney, DTN)

A bipartisan group of agricultural leaders representing nearly all sectors of the industry sent a letter to congressional agriculture leaders outlining how current farmer distress is so extreme that, if left unaddressed, the country risks a "widespread collapse of American agriculture." 

The missive identifies the primary causes of the current farm crisis and urges Congress to begin passing its recommended corrective actions immediately.

"The group charged that Trump administration policies 'have caused tremendous harm to U.S. agriculture' and are having long-term negative effects on the competitiveness of farmers and agriculture," report Jerry Hagstrom and Chris Clayton of Progressive Farmer.

The letter points out the stark realities that many American farmers face today: "Farmer bankruptcies have doubled, barely half of all farms will be profitable this year, and the U.S. is running a historic agriculture trade deficit. These metrics reflect a sharp reversal from record farm export surpluses and farm incomes experienced just a few years ago."

The letter cites multiple factors causing the crisis:

• Increased farm input costs driven by tariffs on fertilizer, farm chemicals and machinery parts
• Loss of export markets due to trade wars and withdrawal from trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership
• Weakening of international trade partnerships as traditional allies turn to other suppliers
• Disruptions to agricultural labor supply affecting dairy, fruit and produce, and meat processing
• Massive cuts to USDA staffing and agricultural research funding
• Reductions in foreign aid and domestic food programs

The group asked Congress to immediately take nine specific actions to begin restoring stability for American farmers, including exempting all farm inputs from tariffs, passing legislation for E15 ethanol, passing Trade Promotion Authority, completing review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and passing a new farm bill and farm labor reform.

A letter synopsis and a copy of the letter, including the names and positions of all 27 signatories, are found here. 

As the U.S. struggles to define its international trade policies, China and South America move forward together

A direct trade route from the Port of Chancay, Peru, to Shanghai, China, decreases 
transit time and lowers costs. (Investigate Midwest map)

Despite the financial boost China's purchase of 12 million tons of soybeans gave some U.S. farmers this year, the shift in Beijing's trading partners doesn't bode well for future U.S. crop sales. China has spent the past decade fostering global relationships outside of trade with the U.S., with a particular focus on South America.

China has invested in nearly two dozen seaports throughout Latin American, which create a "logistics network to support China's growing trade with the region," reports Mónica Cordero of Investigate Midwest. "These seaport investments range from multi-billion-dollar deep-water terminals to smaller upgrades that improve rail links, storage capacity, and ship turnaround times."

COSCO Shipping, a Chinese state-owned company, has been investing in Peru's Pacific-facing Port of Chancay. "The $3.54 billion project marks a major expansion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative into Latin America," Cordero writes. "From Chancay, the promise is that ships will reach China faster, a critical advantage for agricultural products."

Many experts point to the U.S.-China trade war that began in 2018, during President Donald Trump's first term, as the reason China began shunning American agriculture. Cordero explains, "But since returning to office, the president has renewed that strategy, and China’s investments signal a generational shift that may not reverse if and when the trade war subsides."

Without sales to China, American soybean farmers are in a particularly vulnerable position. Cordero reports, "Nationwide, more than 270,000 farms grow soybeans. . . . In Illinois, nearly half of all farms depend on soybean production, and in Iowa and Minnesota, about four in 10 do." 

"As China establishes new trade routes across Latin America, every new port or shipping lane makes a future recovery for U.S. farmers more challenging," Cordero writes. April Hemmes, an Iowa soybean farmer, told Cordero, "The only way that we become their top choice would be if our soybeans were far cheaper than South America’s.”

Long Canadian Pacific trains bring a small town's busy Main Street to a standstill each day

A westbound Canadian Pacific train makes its way into Jackman, Maine.
(Photo by Linda Coan O’Kresik, Bangor Daily News)

In Jackman, Maine, drivers waiting to cross Main Street can spend 30 minutes idling as Canadian Pacific Kansas City trains pass through the heart of town. Daniel O’Connor for The Maine Monitor reports, "More than 3,000 cars and trucks pass through the railroad crossing every day."

Doubling as U.S. Route 201, Jackman's Main Street and the railroad that divides it connects Quebec with "southern Maine and the rest of the Northeast," O’Connor explains. "Trains passing through town sometimes exceed 200 railcars, stretching for more than two miles in length. . . .That’s longer than 90% of North American freight trains operated by companies like CPKC." Some of the wait time can be blamed on aging rail lines and increased traffic.

Jackman, Maine, is 16 miles from the Canadian
border. (Northern Outdoors map)

Locals tried to avoid Main Street during the hours when trains were scheduled to cross, but train schedules varied too much. Waits can be extended when an international border scanner, which checks trains for illegal goods from Canada, notifies Customs and Border Protection that additional scanning is needed.  

For Jackman residents and Route 201 travelers, the long and unpredictable daily train waits are frustrating and pose a potential danger. O'Connor explains, "With the town split in half for part of the day and ambulances on one side of the track, trains could delay responses during an emergency."

Maine’s border shares seven rail crossings with Canada, but Jackman’s border crossing "is the only one to see a clear increase in shipping year-over-year," O'Connor reports.

CPKC has made rail improvements to "upgrade the rails in the area since it acquired the route in 2020, but said border security caused slowdowns in Jackman," O'Connor adds. "Many in town seemed to accept that the long trains were just part of life up north."

Opinion: Skip the big deals; American farmers need a better way to trade

American farmers could benefit from small trade deals
with more countries. (Adobe Stock photo)

Throughout 2025, farm journals and mainstream news outlets published commentaries and new stories outlining how many American farmers don't want bailout or rescue payments. Instead, they want more markets from more countries and a seat at the trade-making table.

"We've been getting trade backward for farmers for 30 years," writes Brian Reisinger in his opinion for The Daily Yonder. "The issue is that since the 1990s, most American trade is a product of big deals with big countries (and often multiple at once, as with the North American Free Trade Agreement)." 

These big trade deals can encompass a vast array of decisions that often go beyond farming into "manufacturing, mining, technology," Reisinger explains. The broad spectrum of deals snuffs out the voice of U.S. farmers.

While NAFTA helped some American farmers by opening foreign markets to them, its changes hurt others. Reisinger adds, "Economists debate the effectiveness of those policies, but the skewed competition [can be] devastating."

This year's bumper soybean crop did little to help many American row-crop farmers, as China avoided U.S. purchases amid U.S.-China trade conflicts. The loss of their biggest customer highlighted "American dependence on China buying soybeans, rather than selling evenly across many markets," Reisinger writes.

A way to evolve and protect U.S. farmers is to de-emphasize big deals. Stephanie Mercier, an economist with the Farm Journal Foundation, said "negotiating on individual products with individual countries — many small deals rather than a few large ones across countless economic sectors — can reduce trade-offs," Reisinger writes.

Trading with multiple smaller countries would help ensure farmers have a voice in the trade process. Reisinger explains, "This could also increase American leverage for farmers, by negotiating with a wide range of countries that need America more, rather than a few big ones like China, or blocks like the European Union."

Quick hits: Mail is one of life's constants; China buys more beans; auctioneer school, federal firefighter payments

In the U.S., mail carriers are still beloved by many
Americans. (Adobe Stock photo)

Despite the U.S. Postal Service's ongoing financial and organizational struggles, U.S. Postal carriers remain beloved by many Americans. "With the Postal Service seemingly in jeopardy, it’s worth taking a moment to reflect on the nation’s more than 500,000 postal employees," reports Steven Kurutz of The Washington Post. Stephen Starring Grant, a former postal worker, told the Post, "I was the face of the United States government for a lot of the people on my route. . . No matter what else is going wrong, you’re still getting your mail.”

As China's promised purchases of U.S. soybeans continue to be tracked, the country purchased "10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week," report Naveen Thukral and Ella Cao of Reuters. The update comes "as the world's top buyer continues purchasing from the United States following a late October trade truce. The cargoes, totalling around 600,000 metric tons, are for shipment between March and May, the traders said, which is the peak shipping season for rival supplier Brazil."

Auctioneer students come from far and wide to learn
at the Bozeman, Mont. school. (Adobe Stock photo)

It's all about pitch, tenor, cadence, body language and the ability to say "SOLD!" like you mean it. "Welcome to the Western College of Auctioneering in Bozeman, Mont., a major training ground for a profession that is critical to the sale of cars and cattle in America," reports Liza Weisstuch of The Wall Street Journal. "Since it was founded in 1948, the school has matriculated over 5,000 students, who also auction everything from real estate to farm equipment to fine art."

After years of avoiding and denying the harm toxic wildfire smoke can do to firefighters, some recompense has been made. Firefighters "will be eligible for a payment of nearly $450,000 and college tuition for their family if they die or become debilitated from a smoke-related cancer," reports Hannah Dreier of The New York Times. "The legislation, which passed as part of a larger military spending bill, requires that some 20 smoke-related cancers be automatically treated as line-of-duty injuries or deaths for all firefighters who work for public agencies."

As 2025 moves into the rearview mirror, it still warms the heart to hear all the good things that happened before 2026 came marching in. Across the globe, some wondrous stuff happened. The U.S. neared completion of the "world’s most ambitious oyster reef restoration in the Chesapeake Bay, with more than 1,700 acres of reefs now revitalized," reports Reasons to Be Cheerful. "Over 120,000 'hedgehog highways' now connect about 240,000 gardens across the U.K. . . .Yemen now has an estimated 1.3 million beehives, some 100,000 more than three years ago." Read 97 good things here.

U.S. sugar farmers take a beating as price per ton tanks

A truck unloads sugar beets. (Red River Valley Sugarbeet 
Growers Association photo)

U.S. soybean and corn farmers aren't the only ones taking a beating in this year's agriculture market. Sugar beet farmers will also see abysmal payments for their record 2025 crop, report Jenny Schlecht and Kjersti Maday of AgWeek.

American Crystal Sugar announced it will pay farmers $43.85 per ton for its record 2025 crop, a "far cry from the $78 it paid last year or the $83.18 it paid for the 2023 crop," Schlecht writes.

The Minnesota-based sugar cooperative explained the lower prices, saying "net sugarbeet payments per ton for 2025 will be far less than payments in recent years due to low sugar prices blamed on sugar dumping by companies that heavily subsidize their sugar crops," AgWeek reports.

Sugar beets are white-rooted.
 (Merriam-Webster drawing)

Sugar beet growers, like other American farmers, have faced high input costs for labor, fertilizer and machinery. They are also grappling with less demand. Demand is down about 4% from a high several years ago, according to the article. Inflation, shifts in the American and even changes in SNAP allowances can all be contributors to less demand.

But Tom Astrup, the president and CEO of American Crystal Sugar, said price worries are the "greatest threat to the sugar industry since Mexican sugar dumping more than a decade ago," Schlecht explains. "The industry has been 'hammered' by the imports of world sugar, which Astrup said the Department of Agriculture has lost control of. That, he said, has led to the highest stocks of sugar in the U.S. in 25 years."

After a long wait by American farmers, China purchases U.S. soybeans for the first time since January

The loss of Chinese soybean sales over the summer 
caused U.S. soy prices to plummet. (Adobe Stock photo)

After months of giving American soybean farmers the cold shoulder, China purchased 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans earlier this week. Karl Plume of Reuters reports, "It's the largest purchase since at least January and the most significant since a summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in October." 

Although soybeans from South America are significantly cheaper, Beijing purchased U.S. beans to "meet the pledges it made to Washington at the trade summit in Busan, South Korea," Plume explains. "The White House said China had agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year." That's less than half of what China purchased -- roughly 27 million tons -- of U.S. soy in 2024.

 

The purchase marks a positive shift in U.S.-China trade relations, after a summer of tariff wars between the two countries, which led China to skip U.S. soybeans and instead purchase millions of tons of soy from Brazil and Argentina. 

 

The loss of Chinese soy purchases over the summer caused U.S. soy prices to tank, hurting American farmers already under stress from high costs and income insecurity. China bought nearly half of all U.S. soybeans in 2024.

 

Jim Sutter, chief executive officer of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, told Reuters, "It is good to see the hard work of our U.S. trade negotiators and their Chinese counterparts turning into business for U.S. soy farmers and exporters. We look forward to this continuing as trade lanes are restored." 

Any federal aid package is unlikely to reach American farmers in time for 2026 crop planning

Farmers plan out their next planting season during
the winter. (Adobe Stock photo)

Relief money for American farmers caught up in the Trump administration's recent trade disputes is likely to arrive too late to help them plan 2026 crops. "For months, farmers have pleaded for government aid to soften the blow of trade wars and another unprofitable harvest," reports Kevin Draper of The New York Times. "Most farmers and bankers have concluded that any aid will be too little and too late to rescue the next planting season."

The post-harvest season is when most farmers take stock of their finances and partner with their bankers to plan expenditures for the following year; however, high crop yields, low commodity prices, and few sales to China have caused some farmers to forgo any 2025 sales and store beans and grain. Other farmers have sold their crops at a loss. Both groups face the prospect of having to take on debt or use their cash reserves to fund their next planting season.

Even if the Department of Agriculture and the Trump administration work with speedy precision, it could "still take months before farmers receive any checks," Draper explains. "That would be well after the crucial winter [decision] period."

Stephen Vaden, the deputy secretary of agriculture, said on the “AgriTalk” radio show last month, "We may need to have a bridge to next year, but how many lanes that bridge has is going to be determined by what the market does between now and then."

Farmers are also waiting on new Farm Bill decisions. Draper adds, "It is also unclear if Congress will pass a new farm bill, which expired in 2023 and was extended a third time as part of the legislation to reopen the government."

China plans to purchase soybeans from this year's harvest and return its bean spending to previous levels

China plans to purchase U.S. soybeans from this year's 
harvest. (Adobe Stock photo)

After months of zero soybean sales to China, a trade deal announced between the U.S. and China will bring some relief to U.S. soybean farmers. 

"China has pledged to return its purchases of U.S. soybeans to regular levels in each of the next three years, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent," reports Ben Berkowitz of Axios. Last year, China purchased roughly half of all U.S. soybeans, which totaled about $13 billion.

Despite China's purchase of soybeans from Argentina in September and October, Bessent's announcement included purchase details for this year's U.S. harvest. "Bessent said China pledged to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans from U.S. farmers this season."

While the final terms of the agreement have not been disclosed, it appears that "China’s purchases of farm products will revert to what it imported before Trump retook office and initiated a new trade war," reports Alan Rappeport of The New York Times.

The sale of soybeans from this year's crop will bring some financial stability to farming families who were already operating on razor-thin margins due to high input costs and low commodity prices. Rappeport explains, "The loss of China as a buyer of soybeans and other American farm products raised fears in rural America that a 1980s-style farm crisis was looming and that many farms could go bankrupt."

On top of China's soybean purchase, Bessent said that "other countries in Southeast Asia had also agreed to buy an additional 19 million metric tons of American soybeans," Rapppeport writes. "He did not specify over what time frame those purchases would occur, but said that overall, President Trump had delivered for the farmers."

U.S ranchers and GOP lawmakers in farming regions denounce Trump administration plans to import beef

Many American ranchers see Argentina beef as a major
competitor. (Carol Highsmith's America photo)

American cattle ranchers and GOP members from farming states have a beef with President Donald Trump's plan to import meat from Argentina to help decrease U.S. beef prices.

Several GOP senators were "completely blindsided by the president’s announcement that he was looking into a deal with one of American ranchers’ biggest competitors," report Meredith Lee Hill and Rachel Shin of Politico. "Those GOP lawmakers are now facing intense blowback from angry ranchers and beef trade groups."

In her social media post, Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer wrote, "The U.S. has safe, reliable beef, and it is the one bright spot in our struggling ag economy. Nebraska’s ranchers cannot afford to have the rug pulled out from under them when they’re just getting ahead or simply breaking even."

Other livid GOP members point out that the beef deal with Argentina wasn't a good way to solve grocery store beef prices and that Trump's plan did not "put America first."

While Trump touted Argentinian beef imports as an immediate way to lower beef costs for U.S. consumers, Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins unveiled "plans to open up new lands for cattle ranching and support new beef processing plants as part of a broader effort to lower beef prices for consumers," reports Patrick Thomas of The Wall Street Journal. "The effort would also include incentives for production of new, smaller processing plants."

Cattle ranchers concerned about Walmart’s impact on U.S. beef industry

Photo by Tyler Delgado, Unsplash

Walmart’s new beef processing plant in Kansas has raised concerns among cattle ranchers that Walmart “will soon look to drive down the price it pays for cattle,” John McCracken reported for Investigate Midwest.

The U.S. beef industry is already struggling. There is a dwindling domestic herd, and four companies control most of the nation’s supply of beef, which makes it hard for independent ranchers to remain in the market.

Additionally, America imports a large amount of beef from JBS, a Brazilian meat processing company, which just went public on the New York Stock Exchange. To Mike Callicrate, a rancher and an advocate for family farms, the entry of JBS into the American stock market is a sign that independent ranchers are going to go out of business.

Big companies, with no other competition, will be able to set the prices as they see fit, completely dominating the market.

An example of this was when Walmart opened a milk-processing plant in Indiana in 2018. As a result Walmart milk prices rose, according to former Walmart CEO of American stores Greg Foran.

“The writing is on the wall,” CEO Bill Bullard of R-CALF said in an interview with McCracken. “We will continue to see more ranchers exit the industry, and we will continue to see fewer cows in the U.S beef cow herd. Walmart is simply just another step in the road to fully integrated, industrialized food production.”

Closing the border for cattle trade hurts American and Mexican livestock managers

Cattle handlers on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border
are struggling. (Photo by Marc Hardy via Farm Progress)

The resurgence of the New World screwworm blowfly and its flesh-eating larvae over the summer prompted the U.S. Department of Agriculture to shut down live cattle trade between the U.S. and Mexico in July. The closed border has hobbled businesses in both countries.

Feedlot owners in Texas, who make their living caring for Mexican cattle after they pass through the U.S. port of entry, have seen their herd sizes and incomes dwindle. Jennifer Carrico of Farm Progress reports, "Mark Rogers, owner of Rogers and Sons, Ltd. Custom Cattle Feeders in Dimmitt, Texas, has fed Mexican cattle for over 25 years. The border closure has lowered his cattle number to 70% of the feedyard's capacity compared to a year ago."

On the Mexican side of the border, Omar Gonzalez, who is Rogers' cattle broker, is also struggling. He told Carrico, "Screwworm isn't a problem up here in the Northern Plains of Mexico, and now we are having to find a place to put these cattle that normally go to the U.S."

Mexican ranchers aren't just looking for lots to hold cattle, but also for corn to feed them and packing facilities, which have typically been managed once the cattle were in the U.S.

As long as the border remains shut, the "decrease in cattle coming to the U.S. not only affects the feedyards but many others in the industry," Carrico writes. "Those who find themselves out of a job include truckers, employees at the ports of entry and those who help expedite getting the cattle to the border on the Mexican side and to the feedyards on the U.S. side."

Business owners in the U.S. and Mexico worry that the border will remain closed. Rogers told Carrico, "I'm not sure what I will do or my neighbors (will do) if the border doesn't reopen."

U.S. soybean farmers panic over lack of sales to China

Some U.S. soybean farmers will store, instead of sell,
this year's crop. (Photo by Mark Serafino, Unsplash)

U.S. farmers haven’t sold beans to China, and soybean growers are sounding the alarm. "American soybean farmers are in panic mode as they harvest what is expected to be a bumper crop," reports Patrick Thomas of The Wall Street Journal. "China accounted for more than half of the $24.5 billion of American soybean exports last year."

By snubbing American soybeans and purchasing South American-grown beans instead, China is once again using U.S. farmer strife as a way to punish the Trump administration's trade wars. Thomas adds, "From January through August of this year, Chinese buyers purchased just over 200 million bushels of U.S. soybeans, compared with almost 1 billion bushels over the same period last year."

Even before China opted not to purchase U.S. soybeans, American farmers were already struggling with high costs for equipment, labor and fertilizer. "Congress in December passed a $10 billion bailout for farmers," Thomas wrote. "President Trump said on Monday that he was 'going to do some farm stuff this week' to help growers cope with the loss of exports to China."

Meanwhile, some soybean growers are choosing to store their harvested crops for now. Iowa soybean grower Morey Hill told Thomas, “There’s no incentive to sell right now." Hill predicted that without sales to China, the soybean market could likely turn into a "blood bath."

Instead of waiting on China, Hill has been traveling to countries such as Cambodia and Morocco, working to educate farmers on the benefits of using U.S. soybeans in their fish and animal feed, which is what China does with the majority of its soybeans.

The European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, Egypt and Bangladesh also purchase U.S. soybeans, but those sales, even when combined, aren't enough.

Opinion: Annual harvests in Ohio turned into a 'mess' by trade wars, low prices and sky-high input costs

China hasn't purchased a single soybean from
the U.S. in 2025. (Adobe Stock photo)

 

Despite better weather and decent crop production, many American farmers face extreme financial distress due to tariffs, sinking commodity prices and the lack of trade with China. 

For row crop farmers in Ohio, the tariffs and expenses have turned their annual harvest time into a "mess" riddled with financial loss and insecurity, writes Marilou Johanek in her opinion for the Ohio Capital Journal.

"Some growers have called the fallout from President Donald Trump's chaotic trade war, and the reciprocal tariffs it provoked, a 'farmageddon' that could ruin what made rural America great," Johanek explains.

While some U.S. farmers were not surprised that China's response to American tariffs was to snub U.S. soybeans, the pain is being felt by farmers nationwide, including those who don't trade with China. Johanek explains, "Farmers felt the same creeping despair with the tariff debacle of 2018 when Trump first slapped punitive tariffs on crucial exporters of American crops."

Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs, who left the GOP after 2018 tariffs caused China to increase its farming trade with South America, told Johanek, "We’re back in the same situation, but only worse. In the major commodities, corn, wheat, soybeans, sorghum, rice, cotton, prices are below the cost of production, so there’s built-in loss."

Beyond too few trading partners, farmers face soaring input costs. Johanek writes, "Senseless tariffs on fertilizer, steel, aluminum, and lumber just sent the cost of doing business through the roof. . . . Trump tariffs are especially painful for family farms that make up about 87% of all farms in Ohio."

Farmers and the agricultural industry impact job and business sectors throughout the U.S. and contribute roughly $9.5 trillion, or nearly 20%, to the national economy.

Agriculture economists say farming recession, trade without China causing 'severe' financial squeeze

Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor graph

Agriculture economists share a bleak outlook for American farmers."The financial squeeze gripping row crop agriculture is only growing more severe, according to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor. As of September, 91% think the U.S. crops sector is in a recession, which is an all-time high for the anonymous survey," reports Tyne Morgan of Farm Journal.

Without orders from China, low soybean sales continue to be the "biggest drag on the farm economy," Morgan explains. "In fact, 77% of economists surveyed say current U.S.-China trade policies are hurting farmers." More than half of experts surveyed think China will eventually purchase U.S. soybeans.

Morgan writes, "Ag lenders in some regions, such as the mid-South, warn farmers are experiencing the most financial stress since the 1980s."

Graph by Lindsey Pound, Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

Looking ahead to next year, agricultural economists are divided. Morgan writes. "Fifty percent say it will be somewhat worse off or unchanged, while the other half expect the situation to slightly improve."

The Department of Agriculture plans to release its farm aid package sometime over the next two weeks. Morgan adds, "Sixty-two percent of surveyed economists said government direct payments benefit crop producers."