Timber giant doubles down on AI expansion plans to maximize profits

Weyerhaeuser plants more than 190 seedlings a 
minute. (Photo by Steven Kamenar, Unsplash)

Weyerhaeuser plans to use AI to amplify its forestry knowledge, building forests with greater scientific accuracy to maximize tree harvests and profits with fewer employees.

With AI efficiencies, company executives aim to "boost annual profits by $1 billion — roughly double 2025’s — by the end of the decade, independent of any increase in lumber prices," reports Ryan Dezember of The Wall Street Journal.

The AI rollout may sound like a science fiction novel written by a tree farmer, but Weyerhaeuser has already launched AI initiatives that will create a digital version of its "timberlands" with the help of satellites and drones. Dezember explains, "It will let Weyerhaeuser know the size and species of each tree, and how far it is from others."

The digital map will help manage tree growth and planned thinning. Dezember reports, "Weyerhaeuser trained an AI model to pore over drone footage and calculate seedling survival rates," replacing work that foresters would normally do. "For a company that plants more than a $100 million seedlings a year, or 190 a minute, the savings add up."

Another initiative will deploy autonomous skidders that drag felled trees with the help of a remote-working employee. "It isn’t just skidders heading toward autonomy," Dezember writes, "The whole logging process — from feller-bunchers that cut and stack tree trunks to delimbers that shear off the branches — could be operated by one person on-site with remote help from others."

Northwestern timber industry hopes to revive as Trump administration eyes tariffs, more logging in national forests

Northwestern timber looks for a comeback.
(Photo by Spurwing, Unsplash)

Despite decades of decline, the U.S. northwestern lumber industry is hoping that changes under the Trump administration will revive the industry. "Sawmills have been closing across the Pacific Northwest over the past 30 years," reports Ryan Dezember of The Wall Street Journal. "Owners of the remaining mills have high hopes that President Trump will deliver relief by increasing logging in national forests and raising trade protections against Canadian exports."

Historically, northwestern timber harvesting has been a boom or bust industry for more than a century, with the government stepping in at times to prevent overlogging. In 1994, President Bill Clinton helped pass the Northwest Forest Plan, which "reduced logging on federal lands. In practice, there has been even less logging than the plan prescribed," Dezember explains. "Owners of the remaining mills have high hopes that President Trump will deliver relief by increasing logging in national forests."

Along with harvesting restrictions, cheaper Canadian lumber imports added to the region's timber decline, which has the Trump administration considering timber tariffs. Even if those specific tariffs aren't levied, an ongoing trade dispute is expected to increase Canadian lumber duties to "more than double in the coming weeks to about 34% for most producers," Dezember explains. 

Location of Skamania County in 
Washington. (Wikipedia photo)

While the anticipated duties on Canadian timber or even additional tariffs on its imports can help the area's lumber companies over the next few months, changing federal logging restrictions will take time and planning. "Boosting the federal timber harvest could take years and be impeded by litigation and red tape," Dezember reports. "Regional Forest Service supervisors have been directed to map five-year plans to contribute to a 25% increase in the overall volume of timber harvested from national forests to satisfy Trump’s call for greater wood production."

The slow bleed of logging jobs from the region hasn't just meant lost incomes; it has translated into community budget cuts. Skamania County, Washington, serves as an example. The county is "80% federal forestland and a further 10% or so is controlled by the state," Dezember writes. "That means that the county earns tax revenue on most of its territory from timber receipts, which have slowed to a drip. Recent budget cuts forced the local school district to lay off teachers and close two of its four schools."

In 1985-2014, suicide rates were highest among workers in lumber, wood and furniture; metal fabrication; and mining

Workers in several rural-oriented industries were found to have the highest suicide rates, in what the authors say is the first study of suicide rates by industry using nationally representative data.

The study looked at 1,943 suicides over 29 years, from 1985 to 2014. It found that age-adjusted suicide rates were highest in the furniture, lumber, and wood industry group (29.3 suicides per 100,000 population), the fabricated-metal industry (26.3 per 100,000), and mining (25.8). Railroading had the lowest rate (5.5), then education, banking, hospitals, and entertainment and recreation. 

Lines extending from numbers indicate possible maximum rates, due to
sample size. (Study graph, adapted by The Rural Blog; click to enlarge)

Most workers in the high-ranking industries are men, which may partially explain their rank. "Male-dominated industries often come with intense pressure, competition, and societal expectations that can significantly impact the mental health of individuals working within them," the authors write. "Male-dominated industries often involve high-stress jobs, long working hours, low pay, and limited work-life balance, all of which can contribute to chronic stress and mental-health problems."

The study, published in the Archives of Suicide Research, was conducted by Ahmed Arif and three other researchers at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. They note, "Suicide rates in the working-age U.S. population have increased by over 40% in the last two decades," with the latest annual total 48,000. "Between 1999 and 2017, the age-adjusted suicide rate increased from 10.5 to 14.0 per 100,000 population. Although suicide may be linked with characteristics of workplaces and their industries, few studies have reported industry-level suicide rates."

Why study such rates? "Characteristics of the workplace may affect suicide risk," the authors write. "Researchers have identified job stress, low job satisfaction, bullying and harassment, lack of support and resources, poor management practices, and job insecurity as some of the risk factors for suicide linked with the workplace." Also, "There is evidence that workplace suicide prevention is effective."

A town of 400 in the Southern Cascades buys surrounding forest for wildfire protection, tourism, and to set an example

100-year-old Douglas firs in the Butte Falls Community Forest
(Photo by Amanda Loman via Columbia Insight)

The small town of Butte Falls, Oregon, decided to purchase its surrounding timber -- not to sell it, but to create an older, more wildfire-protected forest that also serves as recreational tourist destination, reports Grant Stringer for Columbia Insight, a Pacific Northwest environmental news source. "With a population of just 400 people, Butte Falls is a speck in an ocean of remote timberland, much of it burned. . . . Conventional wisdom in the region would have Butte Falls try to reclaim its former glory as a logging hub. . . . But community leaders plan to protect their future by looking to the forest itself. . . . Locals want to grow an older and biodiverse forest that they say will better protect the town from wildfires while attracting outdoor tourism."

Butte Falls' town leadership is onto something. "Conservationists and the state's top politicos say the small project playing out in a remote corner of Pacific Northwest forest can teach other communities how to adapt to climate disasters and hard times," Stringer writes. "It's a strategy some environmentalists want to implement across U.S. forests to sequester carbon, promote biodiversity and blunt severe wildfires. . . . In the new Butte Falls Community Forest, local foresters could build a trail network and recreation amenities near a roaring waterfall to bring outdoor tourism to the town, providing incomes without relying on dwindling timber jobs."

Map by Mackenzie Miller, Columbia Insight

The idea for a community forest came to Linda Spencer following the 2018 Camp Fire that destroyed Paradise, Calif., 250 milkes south. The blaze was "a wake-up call for Spencer, who was the mayor of Butte Falls at the time. . . . When the Seattle-based timber giant Weyerhaeuser informed the Butte Falls City Hall of plans to clear-cut and sell the cleared parcels surrounding the town, likely to another timber company, Spencer jumped at the opportunity to create a community-owned forest instead. . . [she saw] the project as a way for the community to assert control of a resource that is critical to the town's future and the quality of its environment." Spencer told Stringer: "We didn't want someone else managing the forest around us. We wanted to manage it ourselves."

Stringer reports, "Climate science is unpopular in Butte Falls, which is staunchly conservative, says Mike Smeltz, a local forester. . . . But when a group of locals visited the new community forest on a recent Saturday, there was broad agreement that the climate is less hospitable for certain conifers than it once was. . . . . If Butte Falls can weather this fire season, Smeltz will lead efforts to thin the forest by cutting down young trees and dead limbs. . . . That will help the largest trees, including mighty ponderosa pines towering above the thicket, to continue flourishing. According to Smeltz, the town already secured $450,000 from the Oregon Department of Forestry and another $450,000 from the Federal Emergency Management Agency for this work."

Weyerhauser, our largest landowner, uses carbon offsets to boost its stock and real estate; logging practices remain

Weyerhaeuser Co. says trees in its Northern timberlands are harvested at 54 years of age, which on average
is 25 years older than fast-growing pine trees in the South. (Photo by Tristan Spinski, The Wall Street Journal)

Faster than any beaver, Weyerhaeuser Co. "has cut down more trees than any other American company . . . Environmentalists have long treated it as an enemy. . . . The new math of carbon emissions enables the lumber producer to cast itself as something quite different: a force for environmental good," reports Ryan Dezember of The Wall Street Journal in a story headlined, "America’s Most Prolific Logger Recasts Itself as Environmental Do-Gooder."

Weyerhauser's "10.6 million acres of U.S. timberland act as a giant sponge for carbon dioxide, which Weyerhaeuser says more than compensates for the greenhouse gases it emits by felling trees, sawing them into lumber and distributing wood products." The Arbor Day Foundation says that in one year, a mature tree will absorb more than 48 pounds of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and release oxygen in exchange. With that in mind, even though "Weyerhaeuser plans to increase lumber production 5 percent in the next few years, it says its net carbon footprint is negative—so much so that it is offering carbon-dioxide storage capacity to other companies," Dezember writes.

Not everyone accepts Weyerhaeuser's calculations. "Corporate executives and scientists who have criticized the carbon-offset market say the offsets sold by timberland owners allow other companies to pay a relatively small price to avoid reducing their emissions," Dezember explains. "They also say forest-preservation pacts that produce offsets often don't substantially change logging practices, which means they essentially pay timberland owners for behaving as they would anyway. . . . Potential buyers have begun demanding that offsets represent actual reductions in planned tree-cutting, and sellers want higher prices to justify lost logging income."

To put the company in perspective, Dezember reports, "Weyerhaeuser is America's largest private landowner. . . . Altogether, its trees cover an area roughly twice the size of New Jersey. Weyerhaeuser says those trees remove about 14 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year. . . . Weyerhaeuser produces about 950,000 miles of lumber a year . . . . The company takes credit for an additional 11 million tons of carbon held in lumber ... which wouldn't be the case if a tree fell and decayed on the forest floor."

The company wants such good to increase its value. "A recent corporate reorganization at Weyerhaeuser created a 'Natural Climate Solutions' unit," Dezember reports. "Weyerhaeuser hopes its climate unit will persuade investors that its land—and its shares—should be valued higher and that it is an attractive stock for investors motivated by environmental concerns. . . . Albert Chu, a portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management who specializes in natural resources, said the firm's stock pickers are rethinking how they value timberlands and trees. He said carbon values will become a bigger part of the equation, but for now, decisions to invest in forestry stocks remain based on wood demand."

Dezember reports, "Jerry Franklin, professor emeritus at University of Washington's School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, reviewed Weyerhaeuser's carbon disclosures and said the company doesn't grow trees long enough to maximize carbon sequestration and that its single-species tree farms in the Northwest and South don't offer the same environmental benefits as natural forest ecosystems." Franklin told him, "What they would like to do is to be paid additionally for what they're doing already."

Born to chop and saw, he dissed it; now he aims to be king of lumberjacks in 'original extreme sport' sort of like golf

Jason Lentz (Photo by Natalie Ivis, The New York Times)

How can a man can fall into a life he never wanted? Jason Lentz didn't want the life of a competitive lumberjack when his family tried to thrust upon him: "He certainly fought against it," reports Reid Forgrave of The New York Times. "His father and his grandfather and his great-grandfather, who had worked the Great Depression-era logging camps in Oregon, were all elite lumberjacks. And Jason didn’t want to do it. In fact, he hated it."

Growing up in Webster County, West Virginia, Lentz saw how lumberjacking hurt his family: "Jason hated that lumberjacking took his dad [Mel] away for as many as 11 months a year, barnstorming the country and world in search of competitions and their measly winner’s checks. He could make $500 or $1,000 at a show, but the winnings didn’t amount to much when set beside the cost of equipment and travel," Forgrave writes. "For a time, Mel worked a lumberjack show at Sea World Ohio, while Jason, his mother and his little sister scraped by in West Virginia. Jason blamed the sport for his growing up poor — poor even by the standards of one of the poorest counties in one of America’s poorest states." Jason told the Times, "I didn't want to be anything like him."

Right out of high school Jason dissed lumberjacking and focused on basketball, Forgrave reports, but when his post-college overseas basketball opportunity vanished, Jason was poor and lost. "Then his father put him in touch with a friend who had a job for Jason doing lumberjack exhibitions at Chimelong Paradise, an amusement park in Guangzhou, China," Forgrave notes. "Reluctant to follow in his dad’s steps but out of options, he flew to the other side of the world. There, out from under Mel’s shadow, Jason Lentz was free to find his own path. It led him right back to his father."

In China and then around the world, Lentz found his place as powerhouse lumberjack, "That brute strength is the advantage that Lentz, who is roughly the size of an NFL tight end, holds over virtually all his opponents in the Stihl Timbersports Series, which are the biggest-money events in the sport," Forgave reports. Stihl series calls lumberjacking "the original extreme sport." And for those who may think it's all about brute strength, Forgrave explains: "Lentz and other lumberjacks often compare their sport to golf: Power comes from hip torque instead of arm strength; precision comes from producing a repeatable swing. As in golf, the difference between really good and a champion often depends on mental strength: being able to forget one bad swing and move on to the next."

Mel and Jason Lentz (Natalie Ivis, NYT)

Forgrave recounts Jason's progress and regress: "Lentz did not do well at the 2022 Stihl Timbersports U.S. Championships in Little Rock, Ark. In 2021, he established himself as the best lumberjack in the world, winning pretty much every big event, including his first Stihl world title (which his dad won six times). He has a plan for 2023. He plans to head to Australia in January, where he will spend a few months training. . . . . The Australia portion of his 2023 season will end in April at the Sydney Royal Easter Show, known as the 'Wimbledon of Woodchop.' He thinks he has a chance to win the single-buck title in Australia. Only one American has ever won that title in Sydney: Mel Lentz."

Jason Lentz, 37, told Forgrave, “It’s the maturity thing. It’s like golf. My next 10 years, 13 years — those are going to be my prime.”

Housing shortage triggers skyrocketing rents, but construction costs slow affordable housing projects

A housing shortage is fueling skyrocketing housing costs in rural areas and elsewhere. But rising construction costs—especially for lumber and petroleum-based products such as asphalt—make it difficult to build more housing and ease the crunch, and federal laws make it hard to apply pandemic aid to the problem, Kristian Hernandez reports for Stateline.

"For developers of market-rate apartments, [cost increases mean] charging higher rents. For those building rent-restricted projects using tax credits or other government aid, the rising costs could quash an entire project. And the construction slowdown is coming at a time when there is a desperate need to increase the nation’s supply of affordable housing," Hernandez reports. "The stock of low-cost rentals has been shrinking for some time: In 2019, there were 3.9 million fewer units renting for less than $600 than there were in 2011, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. The overall rental vacancy rate in the fourth quarter of 2021 was just 5.6%—the lowest figure since the mid-1980s—evidence that there is an extremely tight supply."

Average rents have gone up more than 17% in the past year, and tenants' income hasn't kept pace, and neither have government housing programs, Hernandez reports. About half of the nation's renters are paying more than the recommended limit of 30% of their income in rent, but government rental assistance has remained essentially flat for the past 20 years, according to Ingrid Ellen, director of New York University's Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy.

Though the federal government has allotted billions in aid for the pandemic, its rules bar the money from being used for the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program. LIHTC is the largest source of affordable housing financing, and has an outsized impact in poverty-stricken rural areas. "The problem is that, under the current rules, recovery funds must be spent by the end of 2026. That means the money can’t be used for long-term loans to help finance LIHTC developments," Hernandez reports. "Some state housing agencies have found a way around the restriction by mixing federal coronavirus aid and other funds ... Some agencies have been able to use recovery funds to cover up to 75% of the cost of a loan with these workarounds, but the process is complicated and adds costs to a project." A bipartisan bill would let states loan pandemic aid for LIHTC sites.

Homebuilding rises as lumber prices fall; supply chain shaky

"Homebuilders in the single-family construction market are feeling better, as lumber prices are way down from sky-high levels and buyer demand is growing," Diana Olick reports for CNBC: "Builder sentiment rose 1 point in September to 76, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. It was the first increase in three months. Sentiment stood at 83 in September of last year and then set a record high of 90 last November. It then dropped off dramatically when lumber prices spiked and supply-chain issues hampered construction."

Olick also notes, "Lumber reached more than $1,600 per thousand board feet this spring, but the more recent price has been around $400."

NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke said the construction industry still faces difficulties. He told Olick that, though the cost of softwood lumber and some other building materials has gone down, "delivery times remain extended and the chronic construction labor shortage is expected to persist as the overall labor market recovers."

"The biggest hurdle for builders in the coming months will be affordability, as they are forced to raise prices in order to keep up with construction costs," Olick reports. "Buyers are still getting help from low mortgage rates, but should rates begin to rise, the squeeze on their wallets will intensify."