As international grain sales dry up, Kansas farmers also face the loss of Food for Peace and other programs

Congressman Bob Dole of Kansas, standing, was a dedicated advocate for
the Food for Peace Act. (University of Kansas, Dole Archives photo)

Rich rivers of wheat have grown on the Kansas high plains for nearly 200 years. In 1953, a Kansas farmer believed he could help ease Cold War tensions by providing some of his surplus grain to a hungry world. President Dwight D. Eisenhower, another Kansan, endorsed the idea and created a program to support it.

"Food for Peace has sent sacks of grain stamped 'From the American People' to more than four billion people in 150 countries around the world," reports Elizabeth Williamson of The New York Times. "Now it is effectively dead."

In February, the head of the Department of Government Efficiency, Elon Musk, ended the program when he cut the U.S. Agency for International Development, which had administered it. Williamson writes. "Kansas’s Republican lawmakers tried to save it but failed to persuade President Donald Trump, who last month proposed cutting the entire 2026 budget for Food for Peace as well as another food aid program dear to Kansans, the McGovern-Dole International Food for Education and Child Nutrition program," which began in 2003.

With Food for Peace fading, many Kansas farmers are hurting. "It was the latest blow to farmers, particularly in Kansas, where about 80% of those on the high plains voted for Trump and agriculture makes up almost half of the state’s economy," Williamson explains. Instead of a more competitive market for their crops, which Trump campaigned on, Kansas farmers are sitting on grain and facing tariffs that have choked off import sales.

The Pawnee County Co-op in Larned, Kan., is "owned by its farmers, and is one of the biggest brokers of high plains wheat. Before Trump took office in January, the co-op sold half its grain abroad, to European, Asian and African buyers," Willaimson adds. "Now the co-op’s foreign sales are 'zero,' said Kim Barnes, its chief financial officer. . . .The co-op was stuck with 1.5 million bushels of grain sorghum after Trump started his tariff war with China."

Tom Giessel, a retired farmer, is disappointed with this administration. He told Williamson, "These people really don’t know the story of Food for Peace and the roots of it. . . . Farmers shipping grain to where people were hungry — that we did these kinds of things is really what made America great.”

U.S. dairy industry sees a positive side to new tariffs. Grain and soybean farmers share a pessimistic outlook.

Graphic by Lindsey Pound, Dairy Herd Management

The U.S. dairy industry says the new reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump could end in a "net positive" for the sector, reports Rhonda Brooks of Dairy Herd Management.

Gregg Doud, President and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, issued a statement supporting the tariffs: "'Tariffs can be a useful tool for negotiating fairer terms of trade. . . .We are glad to see the administration focusing on long-time barriers to trade that the European Union and India have imposed on our exports. If Europe retaliates against the United States, we encourage the administration to respond strongly by raising tariffs on European cheeses and butter. We also appreciate the president’s recognition of the sizable barriers facing U.S. dairy exports into the Canadian market.”

Krysta Harden, president and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council, "gave added perspective on the new tariffs being rolled out, " Brooks adds. Harden said, "A firm hand and decisive approach to driving changes is most needed with the European Union and India to correct their distortive trade policies and mistreatment of American agriculture."

A partial list of the countries and their tariff percentages to be levied include:

• China - 34%
• European Union - 20%
• Vietnam - 46%
• Taiwan - 32%
• Japan - 24%
• India - 26%
• South Korea - 25%
• Thailand - 36%
• Switzerland - 31%
• Indonesia - 32%

Grain and soybean farmers have a gloomier outlook on how the tariffs might alter their market share and future income. "During the 2018 trade war with China, U.S. agriculture experienced more than $27 billion in losses, according to the American Soybean Association," Brooks adds. "The association says the U.S. has yet to fully recover its former market share of soybean exports to China, the world’s No. 1 buyer of the commodity."

North Dakota farmer and rancher Chase Dewitz weighed in on the "pain" the new tariffs will cause agribusiness stakeholders. He told Brooks, "Everyone says, ‘this needs to be fixed,’ and then on the backside they say, ‘as long as it doesn’t affect me.' Well, it’s going to affect everybody.”

Canadian rail strike leaves U.S. commodities unable to move; agricultural interests push for a resolution

Rail-traffic has stopped at U.S.-Canadian
border. (Denley Photography, Unsplash)

As U.S. farmers prepare for expected bumper crops of corn and soybeans, the shutdown of Canada's two largest railways threatens a chunk of their incomes. The fallout from Canada's unresolved rail closures stretches beyond agriculture. It could have "dire consequences for North America’s economy, threatening deliveries of cars, timber and petroleum products," reports Lauren Kaori Gurley of The Washington Post. "The U.S. railway Union Pacific has said a shutdown would sideline more than 2,500 railcars that normally cross the U.S.-Canada border each day."

The two Canadian railways, the Canadian Pacific Kansas City railroad and the Canadian National Railway have been unable to strike a deal with Teamsters Canada "despite days of heated negotiations," Gurley writes. "The Teamsters say the railways are requesting that the union make concessions 'on crew scheduling, rail safety, and fatigue management' — echoing union concerns at the heart of a threatened 2022 rail strike in the United States." The two railroads insist they have offered "significant pay increases and addressed concerns about scheduling."

U.S. agricultural interests are pushing hard for a resolution. Gurley reports, "In a letter addressed to President Joe Biden as well as other U.S. and Canadian officials, dozens of trade associations, including the American Farm Bureau Federation and the National Cotton Council, said a rail shutdown would trigger 'harmful consequences for Canadian and American agricultural producers, the agricultural industry, and both domestic and global food security.'”

Earlier this week, U.S. companies worked to slow the flow of goods to the U.S. Canadian border, which means "that massive flow of goods has screeched to a complete halt," Gurley explains. But the problems go both ways. "Murad Al-Katib, chief executive of AGT Foods, one of the world’s largest suppliers of staple foods such as beans and wheat, said food supply chains would be 'immediately disrupted,' noting that many commodities — such as peas, lentils, chickpeas and durum wheat used for pasta — travel across the Canadian border to U.S. processing and packaging facilities."

Meanwhile, Teamsters Canada said that it won't agree to the rail companies' "grueling schedules," and in turn, both railway companies said "they’ve made generous offers to the union," Gurley writes. "The Canadian government has rejected calls to intervene, but Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged parties to 'get to a resolution.'"

Opinion: Russia vs. Ukraine has become 'a war over food'; Ukraine's Danube port is attacked, raising more food worries

By Art Cullen
Storm Lake (Iowa) Times Pilot

Russia’s reprehensible attacks on Ukraine’s food and agriculture systems will backfire, as they will create even more misery among the world’s poor and hungry. Russia pulled out of an agreement brokered by Turkey through the United Nations to allow grain shipments to sail the Black Sea undisturbed. It followed by bombing grain stocks, the port city of Odesa and ports along the Danube near Romania.

UPDATE: Russia attacked Ukraine's Danube River port of Izmail and destroyed port facilities and a grain silo, "raising further concerns over global food supplies," The Financial Times reports.

Art Cullen

Ukraine is a major grain and oilseed exporter to Europe, the Middle East, Africa and China. The attacks immediately drove wheat prices up 17%, and other commodities followed. Russia claimed that it would provide grain to nations in need, but markets obviously know better.

If Russia thought it could deny Ukraine revenue, it already is a welfare state of NATO. Bordering nations like Romania, whose farmers were getting edgy over Ukraine grain flooding their markets, will steel their resolve to unite against Russia. It’s yet another miscalculation by the Kremlin.

It will increase commodity prices for U.S. farmers and complicate efforts to keep inflation in check.

China must be watching this warily. Beset by drought and short wheat yields, it can scarcely afford far higher grain prices. Russian attempts to hurt Ukraine will hurt China, Moscow’s main benefactor. This could be what it takes for China to put brakes on Russia’s lunacy.

The whole episode should remind us how food and agriculture play a critical role in security and geopolitics. We underestimate the issue’s importance at our peril. Russia has become a major grain exporter alongside Ukraine over the past 25 years. One reason for the war is for Russia to consolidate its hold over food exports as its leverage with fossil fuels rapidly declines. The United States should recognize it and be in a position to organize a response that actually fights world hunger. We should be urgently engaging with those affected by Russia’s ill-conceived attacks on food. If we were, it likely would bring an end to the war. We continue to pretend that it is about something else as we ship more cluster bombs. It is not about pride or sentimentality for a lost empire. It is about food. They are attacking grain elevators. Can we not see that?

Wheat farmers in Kansas, current hotspot for drought in U.S., are killing their crops and filing crop-insurance claims

Drought Monitor maps from the University of Nebraska are available here.

Wheat farmers in Kansas, the main source of U.S. grain for bread, are "abandoning their crops" because of "severe drought and damaging cold," reports Tom Polansek of Reuters. "They are intentionally spraying wheat fields with crop-killing chemicals and claiming insurance payouts more than normal, betting the grain is not worth harvesting. . . . Other growers are turning over dismal-looking fields to cattle for grazing."

The Department of Agriculture said May 12 that U.S. winter-wheat farmers were planning to abandon 33% of their planted acres, the most since World War I. The USDA estimate for Kansas abandonmemt was only 19%, "up from 10% last year and 4% in 2021," Reuters reports, "but farmers, grain traders and representatives of major food companies who traversed the state on an annual crop tour last week warn of an even greater percentage of unharvested acres. Crop conditions point toward an outcome similar to 1989, when farmers did not harvest 28% of the wheat they planted, said Justin Gilpin, chief executive of the Kansas Wheat Commission.

"Parts of Oklahoma are suffering too. In six northern counties, an estimated 65% to 70% of the crop will not be harvested, said Mike Schulte, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission. While farmers get some financial protection from insurance, local businesses are at risk when acres are abandoned, as fewer crews of harvesters come through the region, where they would normally spend money at diners and hotels, Schulte said."

Feds approve $31 billion merger of two major railroads into the first one that connects Canada, the U.S. and Mexico

Map prepared by the two companies in 2021 shows their rail lines and the main areas of Canadian grain production, U.S. grain processing and Mexican grain consumption near the lines. 

With federal approval yesterday, the first railroad to span Canada, the U.S. and Mexico has been created. In a $31 billion deal, Canadian Pacific Railway will acquire Kansas City Southern Railroad and become Canadian Pacific Kansas City as early as April 14, Freight Waves reports.

"In approving the deal, the regulator, the Surface Transportation Board, said the new single-line service would shift about 64,000 truckloads a year to rail from the roads, potentially enhancing safety and reducing carbon emissions, and add more than 800 union jobs. The Surface Transportation Board said the merger would not reduce competition," Niraj Chokshi and Mark Walker of The New York Times report. "Martin J. Oberman, the chairman of the five-member board, told reporters, 'On balance, the merger of these two railroads will benefit the American economy and will be an improvement for all citizens in terms of safety and the environment.'"

The Times reports, "The decision came amid mounting concerns with the deal. The Justice Department said it had 'serious concerns' about industry consolidation and asked the regulator to carefully scrutinize the merger. . . . The board has a congressional mandate to take into account the effect mergers would have on transportation for the public and on competition. . . . Oberman noted that Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern were the smallest of the large U.S. freight carriers known as Class 1 railroads." The combined firm will also be the smallest, Freight Waves notes. Olberman "acknowledged criticism that the industry had already become too consolidated in recent decades," but told the Times that the merger “will actually provide a stronger competitive landscape." Freight Waves notes that Board Member Robert Primus dissented, citing consolidation cocerns and saying "The transaction will harm communities along the path of the newly combined network."

In reviewing the merger, "The board took into account the environment and other factors," Chokshi and Walker report. "In a detailed review in January, the board found that the merger would have little negative effect on safety, air quality or other concerns, though some communities could see heightened air or noise pollution, it stated." The two railroads have littel if any overlap and are linked by CP's southernmost line, ending in Kansas City. Canadian grain interests hope the new line will ease exports to Mexico.

Global grain stocks hit a decade low amid war, bad weather

Reuters graph, adapted by The Rural Blog; click on it to enlarge.

Global grain stocks are the lowest in a decade, and bad weather and the war in Ukraine are "heightening the risk of famine in some of the world's poorest nations," reports Tom Polansek of Reuters.

Grain shipments from Ukraine "are too few and harvests from other major crop producers are smaller than initially expected," due to poor weather, Polansek reports. "The United States, the world's top corn producer, is now expected to harvest its smallest corn crop in three years. Drought also punished European harvests and is threatening South America's upcoming planting season."

When the 2022-23 crop year ends, Polansek writes, "The world's buffer stocks of corn will be enough for just 80 days' worth of consumption, down 28% from five years ago and the lowest level since 2010-11, according to figures compiled for Reuters by the International Grains Council, an intergovernmental organization. That would be fewer days of corn stocks than the world had in 2012, when the last global food crisis spurred riots. Policymakers are worried."

Polasek cites South Dakota corn grower Mark Gross, who "expects to harvest as few as 20 bushels per acre on some fields this autumn, down more than 80% from the local average last year, after drought and fierce winds ravaged his land. Gross said the weather remained too dry in the spring and then two derecho windstorms brought destructive 100-mile-per-hourgusts across fields in Hutchinson County and southeastern parts of the state."

"It's lining up to be like 2012," Gross said. "No one wants to admit it, but it's true."

USDA predicts grocery prices will rise 5.5% this year, largest hike since 2008 and third straight year above 2% average

Grocery prices will rise an average of 5.5% this year, which would be the highest inflation at stores since 2008, \the Agriculture Department announced Monday. "The forecast was an abrupt 2 percentage point increase from last month and was spurred by three months of rapid rises in the prices of many foods," Chuck Abbott reports for the Food & Environment Reporting Network. That would mark the third straight year straight of above-average grocery prices increases; usually they go up about 2% per year.

The war in Ukraine is primarily to blame, and higher interest rates are expected to be a factor, too. Some foods will get pricier than others, according to USDA's monthly Food Price Outlook. "Prices for meat, the biggest item on the grocery list, were forecast to rise by 6% this year compared with average meat prices during 2021 — double the usual increase of 2.9% a year," Abbott reports. "Prices for dairy products were forecast to rise by 6.5%, fresh fruit by 6.5%, and cereals and bakery products by 6.5%. Fats and oils would climb by 8.5% this year, compared with the long-run average of 2.3% a year."

The Economist asks: Do farm subsidies sustain the decline of rural America, by encouraging larger and larger farms?

Nearly a decade of high crop prices and record farm subsidies from taxpayers isn't necessarily good news for rural America, says The Economist, a London-based global magazine that still calls itself a newspaper.

"Despite all this cash, rural America is in deep decline," says The Economist, which generally doesn't name its reporter/writers. "Two-thirds of rural counties lost population from 2010 to 2020, and the total population of rural America fell for the first time in history. The counties that grew were mostly not farming ones but pretty places where people go to retire, near mountains or the ocean, or those with lots of oil. The Midwestern areas which grow most of America’s food are shrinking fastest."

The population is shrinking, but the farms are not. As they are sold or merged into larger operations driven by mechanization, fewer people are needed to tend them. "Just 6 percent of jobs in rural areas are directly linked to farming, and "Most farms, even small ones, 'are highly capitalized agribusinesses growing one or two commodity crops and employing very few people'," says Anne Schechinger, an agricultural economist for the Environmental Working Group," a research-and-lobbying group that dislikes farm subsidies.

"Subsidies, largely in the form of crop insurance, help to ensure the food supply continues, and protect farmers from going bust during downturns," The Economist notes. " But they also determine what America farms—incentivizing farmers to grow vast amounts of soybeans and corn, as well as wheat, which is mostly exported. . . . Fresh fruit and vegetables, which Americans ought to eat more of, are more expensive to grow, and require more labor, but farmers receive almost no subsidies for them."

As farmers get wealthier, "The communities they live in are not," the Economist says, using as its object example North Dakota wheat farmer Phillip Volk, who "says that when he went to school, there were 40 children on his school bus. Today his youngest son goes on the bus with fewer than 10 classmates. His eldest son is likely to take over the farm, but future children may have to go to a boarding school. It is harder to find people to serve as voluntary officials on the school board and county government. Many young people end up moving to places where the job opportunities are more exciting, if not necessarily more profitable. Over half of the churches that used to serve the community have closed. . . . Helping out farmers is politically popular, not least because rural communities are over-represented in Congress. Yet the subsidies may in fact be sustaining the decline of rural America."

Russian invasion of Ukraine sends wheat and crude oil prices soaring, disrupts trade; impact on fertilizer unclear

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted regional export shipments, sent grain futures and crude-oil prices soaring, and may trigger higher fertilizer prices.

Russia and Ukraine together account for a third of global wheat exports, a fifth of corn exports and more than three-quarters of sunflower oil, Keith Good reports for the University of Illinois' Farm Policy News. Russia is also a major exporter of fertilizer components nitrogen, phosphorus and potash.

Though sanctions against Russia haven't banned food or agricultural exports, "that hasn’t stopped global grain prices from soaring," Politico reports. "Wheat futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade, the global benchmark, surged 6 percent earlier this week, to about $9.34 a bushel, the highest in nine years. Wheat futures are up 10 percent since the start of the year."

Even without trade sanctions, farm exports from those countries have slowed to a trickle, since Russia and Ukraine have suspended most commercial railways and ports near the conflict, Good reports. And many ships will be reluctant to trade there for fear of getting caught in the conflict.

"It is not clear if the West would hit Russia's fertilizer industry with sanctions, but it is possible. Ukraine's neighbor Belarus is the world's second-largest exporter of potash fertilizer and was hit with sanctions from Europe and the U.S. in 2021," Chris Clayton reports for Progressive Farmer/DTN. "Because of ethanol and biodiesel, crop prices are also influenced by swings in energy prices. Crude oil prices have surged to their highest levels in seven years as Russian troops threaten Ukraine. The main concern is Russia may hold back oil production as a lever against any punitive response from the West."

Farmland prices and rents in Midwest climb as farmers seek to expand amid booming agricultural economy

"Across the Midwest, prices to buy and rent farmland are climbing as demand is driven by rallying grain markets, historic government payments and low interest rates, according to economists, agricultural lenders and land managers," reports Jesse Newman of The Wall Street Journal. "The battle for farmland is playing out in small town community centers, online portals and parking lots, where . . . auctioneers are peddling parcels of land to farmers eager to cash in on the best commodity prices in nearly a decade. They are also presiding over intense jockeying for fields that can test the fabric of rural communities as a shrinking set of growers compete for control of the nation’s prime soil."

Some parcels of land are selling at or above prices in the farm boom almost a decade ago, say farmland managers. "U.S. farmland values surged in the decade leading up to 2014, more than tripling in big farm states like Iowa and Nebraska, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. By 2020, however, land values in those states had fallen by about 15%, pressured by a drop in crop prices that cut farmers’ incomes and drove some out of business," Newman reports. "Now, a sharp turnaround in the farm economy is breathing new life into the land market. Farmland values rose during 2020 as soaring grain prices last fall revived farmers’ fortunes, according to February reports from three regional Federal Reserve Banks. Land prices in the Chicago Fed region, which covers parts of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin, climbed 6% last year, the largest such increase since 2012, the bank said."

An agriculture economy roundup from the University of Illinois' Farm Policy News illustrates the trend with charts and links to numerous reports. The trend is also reflected in rural Midwestern bankers' record-high sunny outlook on their local economies, compiled in Creighton University's Rural Mainstreet Index.

Grain Bin Safety Week and National FFA Week Feb. 21-27

Two national observances with rural resonance are coming up next week, so here's a heads up for planning your coverage.

Feb. 20-27 marks the 73rd annual National Future Farmers of America Week. The FFA website has an informational page and toolkit with more information, graphics, and coverage ideas. Read more here.

Grain Bin Safety Week is also next week (Feb. 21-27). Deaths from grain-bin entrapments increased in recent years because of the record wet weather. And, with on-farm grain bins growing ever larger, the risk of injury or death is real. But farmers can take several steps to avoid the risk, Russ Quinn reports for DTN/The Progressive Farmer. Click here for more information about the observance on the Grain Bin Safety Week website.

Click here for more information about a contest to award rural fire departments and emergency response teams with grain rescue tubes and special hands-on training for grain-bin entrapment. Since the contest began eight years ago, four lives have been saved thanks to the program. Nominations are due April 30.

China's 2020 Phase One agriculture purchases well below target, but back up to 2017 levels

In 2020, China purchased just 58 percent of the U.S. exports promised in the Trump administration's Phase One trade deal. That includes only $23.6 billion of agricultural products, compared with an expected $36.6 billion, according to an extensive round-up by Keith Good at the University of Illinois' Farm Policy News. Some of the highlights:

• It's unclear whether the Biden administration will seek to enforce the trade deal or negotiate a new one. 
• China's soybean imports from the U.S. in 2020 rose by 52.8% from 2019. That includes 25.89 million tonnes of oilseed from the U.S., up from 16.94 million tonnes in 2019.
• China was the world's top soybean buyer in 2020 and the U.S. was its second-largest supplier.
• Soybean import levels improved as China's pig herds grew after being decimated by African swine fever in 2018 and 2019.
• Two new strains of African swine fever could hurt China's pig herds again though. The new strains don't kill pigs, but they cause a chronic condition that reduces the number of healthy piglets born.
• China's grain imports rose to record highs in 2020.
• China imported a record 11.3 million tonnes of corn in 2020, with 2.25 million tonnes of that in December alone.
• China imported a record 8.38 million tonnes of wheat in 2020, just short of a quota of 9.64 million tonnes. 

Groundwater depletion means the peak era for growing grain has passed for some High Plains states, study says

USDA map

The peak era for grain-growing has already passed in some High Plains states, according to a new survey of groundwater depletion.

"To more accurately predict future grain yields, researchers looked at the relationship between levels of water extraction from the Ogallala Aquifer and the amounts of grain harvested in each state over the last 50 years," Brooks Hays reports for UPI. "Researchers adapted analysis techniques previously used to study the relationship between peak oil production and peak grain production. The research team detailed the results of their analysis in a new paper, published Tuesday in the journal PNAS."

Hays reports, "Texas and Kansas reached peak grain in 2016. Grain yields in the two High Plains states have been declining over the last four years. Without new yield-boosting technologies, grain production in Texas could decline as much as 40 percent by 2050."

Over-use of groundwater, especially the Ogallala Aquifer, will continue to threaten grain production across the High Plains, Hays reports.

Grain bin accidents and deaths up because of wet weather

Reported grain bin entrapments and deaths have increased because of last year's record wet weather. Nationwide, grain bin entrapments increased by 27 percent (from 61 to 67 incidents) and deaths increased by 53% (from 26 to 39) from 2018 to 2019. The trend could continue this year because of similar weather early on.

"Heavy rainfall and brisk harvest conditions throughout 2019 across the 10-state 'corn belt' that includes South Dakota led many farmers to harvest grain crops later than usual and produce grain that was immature or damper than normal," Bart Pfankuch reports for South Dakota News Watch. "Those factors from the 2019 harvest, in addition to the use of old, leaky bins on some farms, have combined to reduce the quality of grain being stored and result in a product known as “'out-of-condition' grain."

Such grain is more likely to clump together and less likely to flow freely from the bin, meaning farmers are more likely to have to go into the bin to try to fix the plug, Pfankuch reports. Owners of small farmers are more susceptible to grain bin entrapments because federal workplace safety laws aren't enforced on farms with 10 employees or fewer.

Earlier this year, a Nebraska farmer announced he'd invented a relatively inexpensive and easy to install machine that could help prevent grain-bin deaths by making it unnecessary for farmers to enter a grain bin to break up the clump. Read more here.

Farmer builds simple device to stop grain-bin deaths

Guy Mills (photo provided)

Grain bins may seem innocuous to non-farmers, but dozens of people in the past few years have died in them, after being engulfed by grain. Nebraska farmer Guy Mills says he's invented a simple machine that can help prevent such deaths by making it unnecessary for farmers to enter a grain bin to manually break up a clump, or plug, of stored grain, Chris Bennett reports for AgWeb.

Mills, a fifth-generation farmer who grows alfalfa, corn and soybeans in Custer County, says two Nebraska farmers died in bin deaths last year alone and the thought weighed heavily on him. "Essentially, Mills' eureka moment centers on the use of a commercial air compressor to blow out plugs as a preventive measure related to the dangers of bin entry and grain collapse," Bennett reports. "Mills contends the shop-solution technology only takes a few minutes to build, is extremely low-cost, and removes clogs in just a few minutes."

Mills got the idea for his invention after snow got into one of his corn bins in early 2019 and caused some of his corn to clump together. "I ran into an employee working for Trotter Fertilizer Inc. of Arcadia Nebraska. He was using a commercial air compressor to remove a plug. I was in shock and wondered why I’d never heard of this," Mills told Bennett. "I made my own version and it worked great, and now I want everyone to know about this."

Removing a grain-bin plug requires a commercial air compressor, much more powerful—and expensive—than those farms normally have. Though such compressors cost about $25,000, farmers can rent one for about $50 per day. With about $150 of parts, a commercial air compressor can be rigged up to unplug a bin auger in three to four minutes, Mills told Bennett.

In the article, Mills explains in detail how to replicate his invention. Ruben Lomeli, who works with Mills, told Bennett he was initially skeptical but is a true believer after seeing it in action. "Nobody has to go inside the bin. The pressure from the compressor breaks all the chunks, and no one has to crawl over the corn or push anything down," Lomeli said.

Mills' invention comes just in time for Grain Bin Safety Week, Feb. 16-22. Insurance company Nationwide began the observance in 2014 to raise awareness about grain-bin deaths and promote safe bin practices on farms and commercial grain-handling facilities. Click here for more information.

Agriculture-purchase details in trade deal remain murky

U.S. and Chinese negotiators unveiled an interim trade agreement last week, but some trade issues still remain unresolved, and the details of the agreement are unclear. The 86-page agreement, which hasn't been made public yet, is expected to be signed in January, Evelyn Cheng reports for CNBC.

Because trade issues between the two nations are so contentious and wide-ranging, negotiators agreed to break the talks into phases. Both countries announced they had agreed on a "phase one" deal that includes agricultural purchases, which could boost President Trump's re-election bid. China reportedly promised to buy $40 billion in U.S. farm goods per year; Trump said he expected that to increase to $50 billion "pretty soon" and "U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters that China would buy at least $16 billion more agricultural goods in each of the next two years. The report said that could bring total purchases to near $50 billion in 2020 and 2021," Cheng reports.

But economists from Japanese finance company Nomura Holdings Inc., including its chief China economist, Ting Lu, said over the weekend, "That scale of purchases seems implausible and Chinese officials were reluctant to mention any specific target during their press conference," Cheng reports.

Both nations are making conciliatory gestures. "The U.S. held off raising tariffs on Chinese goods on Sunday, and Beijing did not go ahead with planned retaliatory tariffs," Cheng notes. "China has also been increasing its purchases of American soybeans this year, despite an overall expected decline in Chinese demand for the product, according to the U.S. Soybean Export Council."

However, "It’s still unclear how and when the U.S. will roll back other tariffs, a condition for a phase-one deal that the Chinese side has firmly maintained," Cheng reports. "The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said in a statement that the United States will keep 25 percent tariffs on about $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5% duties on roughly $120 billion of Chinese imports."

"Lighthizer said Beijing has also agreed to reduce longstanding non-tariff barriers to U.S. farm exports, including trade restrictions on beef, poultry, seafood, dairy, rice, infant formula, animal feed, pet foods, feed additives and a variety of biotechnology products," Ryan McCrimmon reports for Politico's Morning Agriculture. "Farmers have long been frustrated by China’s slow approval process for approving biotech crops, which has impeded U.S. exports of certain corn and soybean varieties."

Quick hits: Midwest has propane shortage, rural New York town finally repeals Prohibition laws, lots more . . .

Map locates two newly "wet" counties

Here's a roundup of stories with rural resonance; if you do or see similar work that should be shared on The Rural Blog, email us at heather.chapman@uky.edu.

Nearly 86 years after the end of Prohibition, a New York town voted Tuesday to overturn its Prohibition-era ban on alcohol sales, and the last two "dry" counties in New Mexico (which had "wet" towns) did likewise. Dry jurisdictions all over the country are increasingly voting this way as moral objections to alcohol use have decreased in recent years, perhaps in comparison to abuse of other controlled substances; also, small towns want to be more tourist-friendly. Read more here.

A late harvest, wet grain, and chilly weather are driving a propane shortage in the rural Midwest. Read more here.

How struggling Appalachian towns in coal country were sold on the promise of private prisons. Read more here.

Freddie Mac recently held a symposium on current trends and the future of rural housing. Read more here.

How does the public's perception of rural America match up with its reality? Read more here.

Major U.S. farm lender sees highest rate of delinquent loans among major banks after being too loose with money

One of the biggesr lenders to U.S. farmers has triggered a slew of loan defaults and lawsuits in recent years after rushing in where other banks tried to scale back, P.J. Huffstutter reports for Reuters.

Chicago-based BMO Harris Bank, a subsidiary of Canada's Bank of Montreal, aggressively expanded its U.S. farm loan portfolio over the past decade, giving some farmers more than they had asked for and without ensuring that they were good loan risks, Huffstutter reports.

That includes farmers like Greg Kruger, who grows corn and soybeans in Harrod, Ohio. In 2013, Kruger initially asked BMO Harris for a $2 million loan to build a grain elevator. But the bank gave him $12 million in loans and told Kruger not to bother providing standard documentation that would prove his financial worth. In 2018, "the bank called in Kruger’s loans as corn and soy prices collapsed and the United States was starting a trade war with China."

BMO Harris "has struggled to recoup some of its investments through a slew of bitter legal fights, according to a Reuters review of court documents and bank regulator data, as well as interviews with dozens of U.S. farmers, bankers, and former and current BMO Harris employees," Huffstutter reports.

As of the end of June, almost 13.1 percent of the bank's U.S. farm loans were at least 90 days late or had stopped accruing interest because the bank doubts the money will be paid back, compared to 1.53% for all such loans insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Huffstutter reports. That's the highest rate among the 30 largest FDIC banks, according to a Reuters analysis.

"The plight of BMO Harris and its customers reflects broader distress in the U.S. farm sector. Farmers are struggling to pay back their loans or obtain new ones," Huffstutter reports. "Shrinking cash flow is pushing some to retire early and a growing number of producers to declare bankruptcy, according to farm economists and legal experts."

USDA official says farmers have gotten far less in trade aid than originally expected

A senior U.S. Department of Agriculture official said on the Adams on Agriculture program Thursday that American farmers hurting from the trade war with China may get significantly less in aid than originally expected. Agriculture Undersecretary Bill Northey said a little more than $5 billion was paid out by the beginning of January, though the administration expected to pay out $8 billion, Chuck Abbott reports for Successful Farming.

"Northey did not provide details nor was a USDA spokesman immediately available to say why the figure differed from the USDA’s earlier estimate that up to $9.6 billion in cash would go to producers of almonds, cotton, corn, dairy, pork, soybeans, sorghum, sweet cherries, and wheat," Abbott reports. "Soybean growers, hit hard by the loss of sales to China, were in line for $7.3 billion." The USDA has also said it would pay farmers $1.2 billion for food to donate and give $200 million to agriculture export groups to promote trade.

The aid payments, administered through the Market Facilitation Program, are limited to $125,000 for producers of grain, livestock, fruit, and nut producers, and are not available to those who make more than $900,000 a year, Abbott reports.