Gas prices are high, and inflation has continued to climb. How do Trump voters feel about his performance so far?

Many Americans say that gas prices may impact their
midterm election choices. (Photo by GG, Unsplash)

Campaigning for his second term in the White House, President Donald Trump pledged "no new wars" while he worked to "make America affordable again." A year and a half into his presidency, U.S. consumers face high inflation, hefty tariffs on imported food and goods, and bloated gas prices due to the war with Iran.

So how do those voters feel now? Tim Balk, Rachel Richardson and Sam Easter of The New York Times asked some Trump voters how they feel about their vote now and how their opinion of his leadership so far might influence their midterm election choices. Some edited selections of their opinions are shared below.

Adele Wilson, 30, of Ada Township, Mich., population 14,400
When asked about gas prices, Wilson told the Times, "Last time I filled up I was like, ‘Oh, this hurts.’" Wilson, a dental assistant, believes "Trump’s second term has been unsuccessful," the Times reports. "She called the war a 'horrible idea.' She was unsure how she would vote in the midterms, she said, but she had already ruled out voting for JD Vance or Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential race."

Matt Yerkes, 74, of New Richmond, Ohio, population 2,730
Yerkes, who is retired, told the Times he thinks Americans' current economic strain is "temporary and needed.” Overall, he agrees with the war with Iran. The Times reports, "He said he disliked the president’s personality, but added, 'I agree with essentially everything he does from a policy standpoint.'"

Luke Stanley, 28, of Hermon, Maine, population 6,500
"Stanley, who owns a metal fabrication company, said he did not 'necessarily' support the war, and suggested he would like the president to change his approach," the Times reports. "But he said that business had been good for him overall during the president’s second term." He told the Times that continued high gas prices might sway his choice in the midterm elections.

China commits to purchasing at least $17 billion a year in farming products, but other agreements aren't as clear.

China's $17 million farming purchase commitment is 
good news for U.S. producers. (Adobe Stock photo)

In some good news for American farmers, following President Donald Trump's summit last week with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a White House fact sheet confirmed that China agreed to purchase "at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually through 2028, in addition to soybean commitments already agreed to," reports Ari Hawkins of Politico. The announcement is among "the few concrete deliverables" from last week's summit.

Beyond its agriculture purchase commitment, the White House said Beijing has "renewed expired registrations for more than 400 U.S. beef facilities and added new listings," Hawkins writes. "A move aimed at widening market access for American farmers." Additionally, China will now accept U.S. poultry imports that the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirms are free of avian influenza.

The summit included agreement on several other issues, but the specific engagement between the two countries on topics such as Iran remained vague. For instance, "Both countries agreed Iran cannot get ahold of a nuclear weapon," Hawkins reports. They also agreed that the "Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor should reopen, and that no country or group should be allowed to charge tolls."

The White House fact sheet didn't include details on how, or even whether, the countries planned to work together to resolve issues with Iran's nuclear capability or its blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Although President Trump noted that tariffs were not discussed at the summit, that "appears to contradict a statement from China’s commerce ministry, which said the two sides had reached a preliminary agreement to reduce some tariffs and also confirmed agricultural and aircraft deals, though it did not provide specifics," Hawkins adds. "Trump and Xi are expected to meet as many as four times this year."

How the war in Iran is altering planting plans for American farmers

Urea is a one of the most popular nitrogen fertilizers for 
corn crops in the U.S. (DTN graph)

For farmers, the war in Iran has meant changing crop rotations, using less fertilizer, investing in what is profitable, and praying costs go back down by 2027, reports Patrick Thomas of The Wall Street Journal. For his report, Thomas profiled three farmers who are responding to the challenges. 

In Iowa, farmer Dave Walton has opted to plant more soybeans than corn to avoid soaring fertilizer costs resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Thomas explains, "Soybeans require less fertilizer to grow than corn. . . . Walton typically splits his land for half to grow corn and half for soybeans. This year, he is shifting to a 60/40 split." Walton still plans to plant all of his 1,000 acres, but he figures his costs so far in 2026 are up 20%.

Timothy Jones also raises cattle.
(T. Jones photo via WSJ)

Timothy Jones typically grows corn and beans, alongside raising beef cattle on his Kentucky farm. "This year, he is planning to put about 20% of his corn crop into producing hay to help feed his growing cattle herd, which is making money, and an extra 15% into more soybeans to cut fertilizer costs," Thomas adds. Since corn needs far more urea fertilizer to provide nitrogen than soybeans, that switch will save Jones money. "Urea was about $520 a ton in January, he said; now it is more than $850 a ton."

Greg Amundson, a row-crop farmer with 3,000 acres in North Dakota, isn't changing his crop choices, but he does plan to use far less fertilizer. Thomas writes, "Because of rising crop-seed costs, he is cutting back on the number of seeds he plants per acre. He is hoping that improvements in how the seeds perform when planted will compensate for using less of them."

Why the closed Strait of Hormuz will increase grocery prices and add to world hunger

Goods and fuel normally flow out of the Persian Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz. (Wikimedia map)

As the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran continues through the spring planting season, Americans and the world at large are likely to see food costs increase as farmers who would normally be fertilizing their soils for corn seed may change their planting choices, writes Aya S. Chacar, an expert on how institutions affect businesses and supply chains, for The Conversation.

Part of the increased expenses will come from fertilizer costs or from reduced crop productivity due to reduced fertilizer supplies during planting season. "Three staple crops – corn, wheat and rice – supply more than half of the world’s dietary calories. To maximize production, those crops need three main nutrients: nitrogen, phosphate and potassium," Chacar explains. "The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the supply and increased the cost of all three."

Faced with soaring fertilizer prices, farmers will have to choose how much nitrogen-hungry seeds like corn to plant and when. "Reducing nitrogen application by 10% to 15% or delaying application by 2 to 4 weeks can reduce corn yields by 10% to 25," Chacar writes. Less food for people also changes what foods are available for livestock and its cost. Higher grain costs to feed cattle, for instance, will increase the price of beef. In the end, consumers will see prices increase.

While Americans have seen gas prices increase in real time as the war continues, more expensive food prices will take longer to emerge, but they will come all the same. Chacar adds, "In March 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture used data from before the Iran war to project a 3.1% average increase for all food prices."

Beyond fuel costs, corn prices are likely to be a primary driver of grocery price increases. "Corn tortillas and other relatively lightly processed corn foods are more likely to show price responses within a few months after corn prices increase," according to Chacar. Cereal and meat price increases will take a bit longer to reach consumer pocketbooks.

Should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed, the resulting fertilizer shortage will be a global problem, as it will affect American crop choices and yields. Chacar writes, "More than 300 million people worldwide already do not have enough food. The U.N. World Food Program predicts an additional 45 million could join them by the end of 2026 if the conflict in the Middle East continues into the middle of the year."

As energy and fertilizer prices climb, American farmers feel the impact of the county's conflict with Iran

Synthetic urea-based fertilizers are commonly used to provide nitrogen to U.S. crops. American farmers
worry that an extended war with Iran could make supplies scant. (Global Trade Tracker graph)

Whether it's citrus crops in Florida, corn in the American heartland or wheat grown in the Dakotas, U.S. farms, which are thousands of miles from the Straits of Hormuz, are already feeling strained by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The length and intensity of the conflict will determine how deeply American farms and the businesses and consumers that rely on them will be affected. 

"Farmers are now feeling the impact in Iran with not only higher fertilizer prices, but the concern that farmers may not even be able to find enough fertilizer for spring," reports Tyne Morgan of Farm Journal. "As the situation unfolded over the past week, analysts say the reaction across commodity markets illustrated just how closely agriculture is tied to global energy and political dynamics."

The war has already led some U.S. farmers to shift the amount of corn they plan to grow. "Corn is far more fertilizer-intensive than soybeans, particularly when it comes to nitrogen," Morgan explains. "When fertilizer prices rise sharply, the relative profitability of soybeans often improves quickly." Most U.S. farmers use synthetic urea fertilizer or anhydrous ammonia to provide their crops with sufficient nitrogen for high-yield, healthy growth.

Beyond corn, wheat crop farmers generally use hefty amounts of urea-based fertilizer, so those farmers may change how many acres of spring wheat they decide to plant this April. Chip Nellinger, founder of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, told Farm Journal, "There’s a lot of nitrogen that needs applied on U.S. wheat acres here over the coming three or four months ahead of us.”

U.S. farmers want to see the situation with Iran de-escalate and shipping lanes reopen. Morgan reports, "Much of the global focus right now remains on reopening critical energy shipping lanes and restoring stability to oil markets. . . . If that happens quickly, the agricultural ripple effects may prove temporary."