Job rate now growing faster in counties that voted for Trump, though their pay and output still lag 'blue' counties

Brookings Institution map; click on the image to enlarge it.

For the first time in seven years, jobs are now growing at a slightly faster rate in counties that voted for President Trump than in more liberal urban and coastal areas that voted otherwise, according to a Brookings Institution analysis that compared 12-month employment rates.

"During the first 21 months of Donald Trump’s presidency, the 2,622 mostly rural and exurban counties he won in the 2016 election added jobs at twice the pace they did during the previous two years under the Obama administration and at a slightly higher rate than the 490 counties that supported Democrat Hillary Clinton," Mike Dorning reports for Bloomberg News. The nation's jobless rate hit a 50-year low of 3.6% last Friday.

The improving economy has helped Trump remain popular with his political base: "The latest Gallup weekly tracking poll showing a 91 percent job approval rating among self-identified Republicans," Dorning reports. "His overall support also climbed to 46 percent from 39 percent at the beginning of March following the release of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report and a burst of positive economic news."

There are some caveats to consider when looking at the analysis. The Brookings data doesn't reflect the recent cost of trade conflicts on export-reliant agriculture and manufacturing sectors, and blue areas are still substantially ahead in pay and economic output. "Trump counties, with 45 percent of the nation’s population, account for only a third of national GDP," Dorning reports. "In September 2018, workers in Red America earned only 72 cents for every dollar in the weekly paychecks of their counterparts in Blue America."

Still, "The uptick in Trump country is crucial to the president’s re-election chances in 2020," Dorning reports. "The key for Trump is whether the trends can be sustained through the latter part of next year."