U.S. beef herd hits a dramatic low as ranchers face repeated droughts and extreme weather

Graph by John McCracken, Investigate Midwest,
from USDA data

More prolonged periods of drought paired with extreme weather swings have reduced U.S. beef cattle herds to their lowest numbers since 1963. "Droughts starting in 2020 are a contributing factor in the nation's historically low beef inventory, according to Department of Agriculture research," reports John McCracken of Investigate Midwest. "Nebraska and Missouri — two of the top 10 beef-producing states — experienced the largest decline in the quality of June pastureland since 2020 compared to the other top states, according to an Investigate Midwest analysis of USDA data."

Since 1975, the decrease in U.S. beef herd numbers were attributed to "increased global beef production and cattle imports," McCracken explains. However, more recent shifts in livestock numbers have been partly caused by beef producers' response to a lack of water and grazable pasture. During droughts, livestock ranchers are more likely to wean calves off milk earlier than usual, "a common practice in dry years, but one that can also put young cattle at higher risk of dying." Ranchers also cull more cattle and spend more money on feed.

Higher costs to raise a beef herd end in fewer cattle on the market and higher beef prices. "Currently, cattle market experts report that the price paid by meatpackers to beef cattle ranchers is expected to be an all-time high," McCracken reports. "Food industry experts told various media outlets in late 2023 that this price increase would translate into sticker shock for consumers. . . . At the end of last year, the price of beef per pound peaked at $5.35, a 40-year high."

Midwestern agriculture depends on rain and groundwater. Dennis Todey, climatologist and director of the USDA's Midwest Climate Hub, noted how much "climate change has complicated the region's drought realities," McCracken reports. "Livestock producers now deal with weather whiplash — the result of climate change — of severely wet years, followed by intense, dry seasons." This past winter's snowfall across the Midwest is "expected to bring relief from the recent run of drought years," McCracken reports. "Despite forecasts of reduced drought levels for 2024, ranchers will continue to recover from previous drought years."