As a lens for this election, stay focused on places 'where rural voters are exercising their clear-minded independence'

Click on the map to enlarge it. (Map by Graham Marema, from Jacobs and Johnson data)

Rural areas will play a large role in determining who wins the U.S. presidential and Congressional races. "When the presidential results start rolling in . . . the usual battlegrounds will get all the attention. But the real story of the night will be hidden in rural communities across America," report Nicholas F. Jacobs and Robin A. Johnson for The Daily Yonder. "These aren’t just dots on the map — they’re bellwethers for how rural America will shape the outcome of the election for presidential, Senatorial, House, and state legislative elections."

There are two types of rural counties – "classified throughout as non-metropolitan according to the 2023 RUCC (Rural Urban Continuum Code) designation — that matter for the Harris-Trump contest: those that reversed course in 2020 over 2016 (the flippers) and those that continued the decade's long trend in Republican dominance in a rural area," Jacobs and Johnson explain. Kennebec County, Maine is an example of a "flipper." Mower County, Minnesota (Walz's old stomping ground) and Lake County, Michigan are examples of "long-termers."

The battle for the U.S. Senate will come down to a "handful of races in states where rural votes will be decisive," the Yonder reports. "All eyes will be on Montana to see if Jon Tester can keep his seat in a state where rural votes comprise about 45% of the statewide total. . . . Michigan features an open seat, and rural counties comprise about 17% of the statewide vote." Ohio, Wisconsin and Nebraska also have Senate races to watch.

The U.S. House is also up for grabs, and "both parties are targeting for control of the House of Representatives featuring [races with] significant shares of rural voters," Jacobs and Johnson write. "Rural voters could well determine which party controls the U.S. House." Maine, Colorado, New York, North Carolina and Iowa all have House districts with tipping point races. In New Mexico's 3rd district, incumbent Gabe Vasquez (Democrat) is fighting to keep his seat "in this district where 37.3% of the votes were rural last election."

While there are many races to watch, "let’s keep the focus on the places that matter: the districts where rural votes will truly decide the outcome and who might give us glimpses into a different political future for rural communities," Jacobs and Johnson add. "We should be looking at the places where rural voters are exercising their clear-minded independence and where candidates are working to restore two-party competition. These are the contests that will tell us more about the future of American politics than the losses."