"Severe drought has ruined one of the most promising harvests in U.S. history," but a weather disaster doesn't mean economic disaster, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Vice President Jason Henderson and economist Nathan Kauffman write in the latest edition of the bank's quarterly publication, The Main Street Economist.
Though the U.S. Department of Agriculture recently cut estimates of the corn crop by 12 percent and the soybean crop by 8 percent, but "USDA’s price and yield projections suggest that U.S. corn revenues could rise 12 percent above June estimates and approach last year’s record highs." (Chart based on data from Commodity Research Bureau.) "Similarly, total soybean revenues are now projected to increase 3 percent above June 2012 estimates. A similar revenue pattern emerged during the 1988 drought. Still, final revenue estimates for 2012 will hinge on future weather patterns, final production losses and price responses to harvest expectations."
Individual farmers' situations depend on their crop choices, marketing strategies, the weather and crop insurance, the report says, but livestock producers are worse off: "Estimates suggest that over 70 percent of all beef cows are in states with pasture conditions rated as poor to very poor. With two-thirds of U.S. hay production areas experiencing drought, alfalfa prices have jumped 15 percent since May. In an attempt to limit losses, ranchers weaned calves earlier than usual and increased the placement of feeder cattle into feedlots. Combined with the increased shipments of feeder cattle from Mexico, the influx of cattle into feedlots contributed to a 12 percent decline in feeder cattle prices since mid-June. . . . USDA expects feedlot operations to lose more than $200 per head this fall. . . . Hog and poultry enterprises are also bracing against rising feed costs and falling profits." But if short-term losses reduce livestock head count, prices are expected to rebound.
Henderson is the bank's vice president and Omaha branch executive. Kauffman is an economist. Their report also addresses the drought's effect on transportation, meatpacking, ethanol, food prices and all consumer prices. To read it, click here.
Individual farmers' situations depend on their crop choices, marketing strategies, the weather and crop insurance, the report says, but livestock producers are worse off: "Estimates suggest that over 70 percent of all beef cows are in states with pasture conditions rated as poor to very poor. With two-thirds of U.S. hay production areas experiencing drought, alfalfa prices have jumped 15 percent since May. In an attempt to limit losses, ranchers weaned calves earlier than usual and increased the placement of feeder cattle into feedlots. Combined with the increased shipments of feeder cattle from Mexico, the influx of cattle into feedlots contributed to a 12 percent decline in feeder cattle prices since mid-June. . . . USDA expects feedlot operations to lose more than $200 per head this fall. . . . Hog and poultry enterprises are also bracing against rising feed costs and falling profits." But if short-term losses reduce livestock head count, prices are expected to rebound.
Henderson is the bank's vice president and Omaha branch executive. Kauffman is an economist. Their report also addresses the drought's effect on transportation, meatpacking, ethanol, food prices and all consumer prices. To read it, click here.
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