Rural banker survey finds record-high farmland price index, 12 straight months of sunny local economic outlook

Creighton University chart compares current month to last month and year ago; click here to download it and chart below.

A November survey of rural bankers in 10 Midwestern states that rely on agriculture and energy marked 12 straight months of positive outlooks on economies in about 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300 in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

The Rural Mainstreet Index rose to 67.7 from October's 66.1, and the farmland price index hit a record-high 85.5, up from 81.5. "Readings for farmland prices and equipment sales over the last several months represent the strongest consistent growth since 2012" writes Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who compiles the index. "Solid grain prices, the Federal Reserve’s record-low interest rates, and growing exports have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy."

However, labor shortages continue to plague rural businesses; Bureau of Labor Statistics data show nonfarm employment in Rural Mainstreet states remains 2.5% lower than before the pandemic. Some bankers also worry about the infrastructure bill; asked what parts of it would most help agriculture, 30% said it has too many negatives to help at all, while more than a fourth each said it would help most with broadband and waterways.