Climate change keeps pushing fall leaf change back; the shift may endanger forests and tourism dollars

A forest in Newark, Vermont, in October (Getty Images photo by Tayfun Coskun)

You may have noticed that the trees were especially late in changing colors this fall. Scientists say it's probably the new normal. "From Vermont to North Carolina, fall foliage appeared behind schedule this year—continuing a long-term trend that, according to one recent study of maples by researchers at George Mason University, has pushed the appearance of fall colors back more than a month since the 19th century," Sarah Gibbens reports for National Geographic.

Climate change is a cause: "This past October was the world’s fourth warmest October in a 142-year record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That’s no surprise: The eight warmest Octobers have come in the last eight years. And the Northeast, which is most famous for fall foliages, is warming faster than the rest of North America," Gibbens reports. But temperature isn't the only reason for the leaves' delay: "Precipitation or the lack of it, extreme weather, and insect infestations all play a role. As climate change affects all those factors, it’s making the timing of peak foliage harder to predict."

That could disrupt leaf-peeping and other fall-centered tourism that generates as much as $30 billion each year nationwide. Scientists say the delays in leaf coloration disrupt trees' annual growth cycles and could destroy some forests. "While nobody wants to be the 'sky is falling' kind of person, we do understand these changes are the plants telling us something is not right," GMU ecologist Rebecca Forkner told Gibbens.